UK House Prices.

[MasterOfCoin]

Average UK house prices soared by 10.2% in the year to March, the highest annual growth rate for 14 years, according to official figures.
The Office for National Statistics said average prices rose by £24,000 to £256,000 - a new record high.

Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Sarah Coles warned the market risked overheating.
"We're back to the kind of double-figure house price rises we saw in the heady days before the financial crisis [of 2008]," the analyst said.

And we all know how that played out.

 

[counter_violent]

Average UK house prices soared by 10.2% in the year to March, the highest annual growth rate for 14 years, according to official figures.
The Office for National Statistics said average prices rose by £24,000 to £256,000 - a new record high.

Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Sarah Coles warned the market risked overheating.
"We're back to the kind of double-figure house price rises we saw in the heady days before the financial crisis [of 2008]," the analyst said.

And we all know how that played out.

Ah ! The benefits of Brexit are many and varied.

 

[new_trader]

The 'things' that will crash this decade are fiat currencies.

 

[tomorton]

I was a bit surprised to find the excellent ONS do actually use "average" when reporting on house price levels and changes. I had assumed this was lazy journalism and what the news people meant was median house price not average house price.

An average house price is only useful if there is such a thing as an average house. Its like average income or average hair colour - sounds useful but means nothing.

 

[MasterOfCoin]

I was a bit surprised to find the excellent ONS do actually use "average" when reporting on house price levels and changes. I had assumed this was lazy journalism and what the news people meant was median house price not average house price.

An average house price is only useful if there is such a thing as an average house. Its like average income or average hair colour - sounds useful but means nothing.

Well...

It means people delude themselves into feeling richer, even though they aren't.

After all, they're hardly going to sell-up and live in a cardboard box to realize the gain.

 

[IceThor]

I am currently selling my house and not buying another for a year or two......is it wrong that I want the market to crash in the middle of that timescale?

 

[MasterOfCoin]

I am currently selling my house and not buying another for a year or two......is it wrong that I want the market to crash in the middle of that timescale?

Not at all.

And if the current Government Policy cliff-edge is anything to go by, you may well get your wish, soon enough.

Ergo.
''Lets dish out loads of 95% mortgages to folks who can barely afford near zero percent interest''

That'll work out just great when real inflation kicks in and the base rate gets hiked.

😁

 

[tomorton]

I am currently selling my house and not buying another for a year or two......is it wrong that I want the market to crash in the middle of that timescale?

Have no fears on this. You can wish and wish and wish for something but that still won't make it happen. So if prices crash, you won't be to blame.

Of course, people will still hate you just for being so smart.

 

[Atilla]

I am currently selling my house and not buying another for a year or two......is it wrong that I want the market to crash in the middle of that timescale?

It is not wrong to wish for anything as long as you don't follow up your wish by building zillion of houses to cause the crash.

In the UK there is supply shortage so you can wish all you want, it'll only mean you are pissing up your wish against a brick wall. Exercise caution on how high you try to pee.

 

[new_trader]

Average UK house prices soared by 10.2% in the year to March, the highest annual growth rate for 14 years, according to official figures.
The Office for National Statistics said average prices rose by £24,000 to £256,000 - a new record high.

Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Sarah Coles warned the market risked overheating.
"We're back to the kind of double-figure house price rises we saw in the heady days before the financial crisis [of 2008]," the analyst said.

And we all know how that played out.

£256,000 ≈ 192 oz. t of fine gold (999.9)

I am going on record to say that within this decade the average house price in the U.K will be less than 100 oz. t of fine gold (999.9).

I'd say within this decade around 70 oz. t of fine gold (999.9) will buy you an average house in the U.K.

 

[IceThor]

It is not wrong to wish for anything as long as you don't follow up your wish by building zillion of houses to cause the crash.

In the UK there is supply shortage so you can wish all you want, it'll only mean you are pissing up your wish against a brick wall. Exercise caution on how high you try to pee.

Yeah tbh I am just going to do what I am going to do anyway. If it works out like this bonus, if not then I am prepared anyway.

 

[timsk]

Mrs. timsk and I put our rental cottage (aka our pension) on the market last Tuesday. By the end of play Friday we had 16 viewings booked - one of which is a 2nd viewing. We're selling because we know that in 'normal' times it's a very difficult property to sell - for reasons I won't bore you with. Assuming we do get a buyer, we'll then be left with the 1st world 'problem' of what to do with the money. I'm tempted to play IceThor's game, but I'm worried about rampant inflation kicking in and even if/when there is a crash, property prices (although lower in real terms) will make the proceeds of our sale look like chump change. So, any suggestions from the great and the good on here would be much appreciated!
Tim.

 

[MasterOfCoin]

Mrs. timsk and I put our rental cottage (aka our pension) on the market last Tuesday. By the end of play Friday we had 16 viewings booked - one of which is a 2nd viewing. We're selling because we know that in 'normal' times it's a very difficult property to sell - for reasons I won't bore you with. Assuming we do get a buyer, we'll then be left with the 1st world 'problem' of what to do with the money. I'm tempted to play IceThor's game, but I'm worried about rampant inflation kicking in and even if/when there is a crash, property prices (although lower in real terms) will make the proceeds of our sale look like chump change. So, any suggestions from the great and the good on here would be much appreciated!
Tim.

Wishing you the very best in selling at what will likely be the top of the market, unless the Government further extends the cliff edge rapidly approaching. There's going to be the mother-of-all depressions when all this plays out and the magic money tree withers.

As you rightly surmise, the problem becomes what to do with the money before it becomes worthless. Or put more correctly, preserving wealth.

I'll happily mull over a range of ideas, suggestions and strategies in an appropriate 'Wealth Preserving Investments' thread, if that's the kind of thing you had in mind. It may well be a useful exercise to explore the options available.

Always with the caveat of course that nothing posted here is financial advice, merely opinion for entertainment, and posters are almost certainly not registered financial advisers and may very well have vested interests in their 'recommendations'.

We would have to see how many would contribute to the discussions. This is primarily a forum of traders rather than investors (not that the two things are exclusive, just that the most frequent* posters seem to comprise of FX and Index traders, more than stock or commodity investors). *Excepting that is, the complete lunatics locked in their own little asylums spewing endless drivel day and night. Which is free entertainment in itself.

Would certainly like to see more wealth management content being actively contributed.

 

[timsk]

I'll happily mull over a range of ideas, suggestions and strategies in an appropriate 'Wealth Preserving Investments' thread, if that's the kind of thing you had in mind. It may well be a useful exercise to explore the options available.

Always with the caveat of course that nothing posted here is financial advice, merely opinion for entertainment, and posters are almost certainly not registered financial advisers and may very well have vested interests in their 'recommendations'.

Thanks MOC.
Yes, I'd be very interested in your thoughts - and point taken about investment advice.
Tim.

 

[1nvest]

Wishing you the very best in selling at what will likely be the top of the market, unless the Government further extends the cliff edge rapidly approaching. There's going to be the mother-of-all depressions when all this plays out and the magic money tree withers.

As you rightly surmise, the problem becomes what to do with the money before it becomes worthless. Or put more correctly, preserving wealth.

I'll happily mull over a range of ideas, suggestions and strategies in an appropriate 'Wealth Preserving Investments' thread, if that's the kind of thing you had in mind. It may well be a useful exercise to explore the options available.

Always with the caveat of course that nothing posted here is financial advice, merely opinion for entertainment, and posters are almost certainly not registered financial advisers and may very well have vested interests in their 'recommendations'.

We would have to see how many would contribute to the discussions. This is primarily a forum of traders rather than investors (not that the two things are exclusive, just that the most frequent* posters seem to comprise of FX and Index traders, more than stock or commodity investors). *Excepting that is, the complete lunatics locked in their own little asylums spewing endless drivel day and night. Which is free entertainment in itself.

Would certainly like to see more wealth management content being actively contributed.

I'd second that, its what im currently doing for a few

 

[counter_violent]

Wishing you the very best in selling at what will likely be the top of the market, unless the Government further extends the cliff edge rapidly approaching. There's going to be the mother-of-all depressions when all this plays out and the magic money tree withers.

As you rightly surmise, the problem becomes what to do with the money before it becomes worthless. Or put more correctly, preserving wealth.

I'll happily mull over a range of ideas, suggestions and strategies in an appropriate 'Wealth Preserving Investments' thread, if that's the kind of thing you had in mind. It may well be a useful exercise to explore the options available.

Always with the caveat of course that nothing posted here is financial advice, merely opinion for entertainment, and posters are almost certainly not registered financial advisers and may very well have vested interests in their 'recommendations'.

We would have to see how many would contribute to the discussions. This is primarily a forum of traders rather than investors (not that the two things are exclusive, just that the most frequent* posters seem to comprise of FX and Index traders, more than stock or commodity investors). *Excepting that is, the complete lunatics locked in their own little asylums spewing endless drivel day and night. Which is free entertainment in itself.

Would certainly like to see more wealth management content being actively contributed.

A few of us in the same boat . Thankfully, it's not the Titanic, as that's already sunk !

Wealth management thread is long overdue.

 

[Atilla]

Mrs. timsk and I put our rental cottage (aka our pension) on the market last Tuesday. By the end of play Friday we had 16 viewings booked - one of which is a 2nd viewing. We're selling because we know that in 'normal' times it's a very difficult property to sell - for reasons I won't bore you with. Assuming we do get a buyer, we'll then be left with the 1st world 'problem' of what to do with the money. I'm tempted to play IceThor's game, but I'm worried about rampant inflation kicking in and even if/when there is a crash, property prices (although lower in real terms) will make the proceeds of our sale look like chump change. So, any suggestions from the great and the good on here would be much appreciated!
Tim.

From my pov, fwiw - if it is (aka your pension) then I suspect you'll want something to store it's value with some nominal growth. Certainly wouldn't like to keep it in cash. You might want to consider splitting it into buying a small property in Portugal as I'm bullish on the Euro. Either way if it doesn't work out you'll have somewhere to stay where it's lovely sunny and warm. If you don't stay there you can always use it as a holiday let to generate income.

Sticking excess monies into ISA's and investing in divi paying good stock an obvious option but limited to small sums in any one year. Thus, might take you a while to squirrel away all your cash into them.

I think buying a small amount of land is probably a good idea too as a store of wealth. I was thinking of buying some woodlands a while back. Still seems like a good idea to me to store value at a low cost of maintenance. Something to pass on to the kids.

Anything else probably need some specialist advice.

Nice sweet spot to be in. I hope you don't blow it away on a mid-life crises or something that comes out of the blue.

 

[Atilla]

Yeah tbh I am just going to do what I am going to do anyway. If it works out like this bonus, if not then I am prepared anyway.

What I'd recommend is that you time the purchase of your 2nd property. ie Save up deposit now to buy number two when the crash comes your way. I recall back in 2008/09, mortgages were very hard to come by unless you put down 40%. You can then sell the first one when market recovers and await your time to invest your cash for the subsequent crash.

That's assuming housing market does crash in the UK, which I do not think so due to fundamental infrastructure reasons. What you suggest occurred in Ireland and Spain with total over building - excess supply. However, UK market significantly different with much stricter planning controls on land. We have excess demand. House prices, like wages are sticky downward. People will prefer to stay put rather than absorb loss. i.e. much like holding on to losing trades.

Good luck but don't hold out too long if your plan doesn't materialise in good time imo.

 

[timsk]

Nice sweet spot to be in. I hope you don't blow it away on a mid-life crises or something that comes out of the blue.

Thanks At' - no chance of that happenning as, sadly, that ship sailed a while back! Interesting that you recommend buying property in Portugal given your views on Brexit - I'm quite surprised at that. As it happens, about 15 years ago, we came to within the width of a gnats cock (an old printing expression) of buying a flat in Malaga - a city we love and know extremely well. Along with my middle age - that ship sailed at about the same time. As you rightly say, preserving the capital - or storing value - is as much a concern as the interest/return on investment.

Thanks again for your reply.
Tim.

 

[new_trader]

I have directly owned investment properties a few times in my life and as far as I'm concerned, never again. The last one was sold a few years ago which was a shared ownership with family members. My investment philosophy now is carefree investments. I only invest in property via ETF's and investment trusts. No concerns about insurance, maintenance, rogue tenants, this headache or that headache...just a lovely, regular dividend payment. Plus, if you ever need some money you can easily liquidate a small portion, you can't do that with property. Warren Buffett I believe has the same philosophy, one house is enough i.e your residence.

new_trader