UK House price charts?

[The Baptist]

Hmm, strange - there's no macros running on it. Not sure why your anti virus would flag this. Does it do the same for the previous files I uploaded?

Jaydee, apologies tried to open on early machine that just had Excel 2003, opened fine on another newer machine elsewhere in the hse.

Trend is about to go probably happened already, whats the Blue line?

 

[The Baptist]

Jaydee, apologies tried to open on early machine that just had Excel 2003, opened fine on another newer machine elsewhere in the hse.

Trend is about to go probably happened already, whats the Blue line?

the thin straightish one to be clear Paralell to the trend but lower.

 

[Jaydee]

Oops, that blue line is something I drew on there and forgot to remove it. There is also a horizontal red line I drew. Both are nothing to do with the figures.

 

[jm99]

nationwide data (blue line). some simple ta.....price found long term support at 40 quarter avg (purple line) on last pullback. a retrace to that level this year would put prices back to 2003 levels.

if your of the opinion the housing market was in a bubble, and bubble normally retrace to where it started from.....targets 2500.

 

[The Baptist]

nationwide data (blue line). some simple ta.....price found long term support at 40 quarter avg (purple line) on last pullback. a retrace to that level this year would put prices back to 2003 levels.

if your of the opinion the housing market was in a bubble, and bubble normally retrace to where it started from.....targets 2500.

Any new data to compare on this thread?

TB

 

[Jaydee]

It's out every three months - so, should be sometime early April

 

[Jaydee]

Latest (2009 Q1):

 

[Jaydee]

So, what does everyone make of the latest chart? The start of another property boom now things are looking up?

Some research was done into the last 100 hundred years of boom and bust - financial and property markets. I forget the name of the University which conducted the study - it was one of the US ones. They concluded that the average time period from top to bottom of a bear phase property market was 6 years. Rar, rar, past history does not guarantee future performance and all but perhaps it's a bit early to break out the bubbly just yet. Be interesting to see if this G20 stuff has much impact on property - it has certainly sparked a bit of buying in equities.

 

[SAINT]

So, what does everyone make of the latest chart? The start of another property boom now things are looking up?

I wouldn't say things were looking up. People are calling the bottom for this recession
based on a one month rally in stocks but are ignoring unemployment levels, deflation,
falling gdp etc.

In my opinion property prices are still overdone in this country and a large chunk of the price is pyschological. Greater fool theory.

 

[SAINT]

UK house prices will plummet: look at this scary chart - MoneyWeek

Many of the arguments for UK property are the same as they were for Japan, which went onto
a 13yr bear market. Fiscal policy is also replicating Japan which went onto it's 'lost' decade.

 

[Jaydee]

Yes, my thoughts are that we will see a fall of at least 45% from top to bottom. I think we still have another 4-5years of gradual price falls - I don't think the falls will have the magnitude of the initial slope off but, then again, the circumstances are pretty unusual this time round so there's still a possibility I suppose.

 

[Jaydee]

I'm a bit behind on these inflation adjusted prices. Available from Nationwide if anyone is interested:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical.htm

 

[patw]

I'm a bit behind on these inflation adjusted prices. Available from Nationwide if anyone is interested:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical.htm

Good work on the chart jaydee

What do you think of a 120kish bottom for the average uk house price?

I live in northern ireland and prices in my area have dropped around 40% from their peak in Q3 2007 to Q1 2010

Regards pat

 

[Jaydee]

Hi Pat,

It's one of those things now where we stand on a tipping point. Should things go lower, I think a 120K average price is reachable. However, things could carry on going up from where we are now too. It's going to be interesting when the BoE raises interest rates - I will be keen to see how the property markets react to this.

 

[patw]

Hi Pat,

It's one of those things now where we stand on a tipping point. Should things go lower, I think a 120K average price is reachable. However, things could carry on going up from where we are now too. It's going to be interesting when the BoE raises interest rates - I will be keen to see how the property markets react to this.

It will kill alot of folk and prob start a total crash,but then again if the economy picks up we should be fine as long as we dont see the rates of the early 90,s then that would defo kill the 100k+ morgages!

 

[Atilla]

It will kill alot of folk and prob start a total crash,but then again if the economy picks up we should be fine as long as we dont see the rates of the early 90,s then that would defo kill the 100k+ morgages!

I don't think so (I'm referring to UK where there is shortage of housing stock).

It will bring in opportunist buyers into the market to pick up property on the cheap.

Not only from domestic demand but foreign buyers too. With a very low pound the foreign investment knows it is on to a double whopper gains; from currency movement and house price increases. Watch this space!!!


The reason why house prices have risen 9% + since March 2009 is because the falls were over-done.


The excessive talk of doom and gloom is way OT. Recovery is well underway.

 

[KTF]

I don't think so (I'm referring to UK where there is shortage of housing stock).

It will bring in opportunist buyers into the market to pick up property on the cheap.

Not only from domestic demand but foreign buyers too. With a very low pound the foreign investment knows it is on to a double whopper gains; from currency movement and house price increases. Watch this space!!!


The reason why house prices have risen 9% + since March 2009 is because the falls were over-done.


The excessive talk of doom and gloom is way OT. Recovery is well underway.

The talk of stock shortage is not the greatest reasoning - people said the same before the last crash. The reason why prices have not fell further is mortgages are so cheap. They probably will remain so for a while so can imagine it'll be further unemployment that will lead the way down or something unknown atm. I have a vested interest in prices going up but am not blinkered to understand property prices work cyclically and have at least 20% to fall.

 

[Atilla]

The talk of stock shortage is not the greatest reasoning - people said the same before the last crash. The reason why prices have not fell further is mortgages are so cheap. They probably will remain so for a while so can imagine it'll be further unemployment that will lead the way down or something unknown atm. I have a vested interest in prices going up but am not blinkered to understand property prices work cyclically and have at least 20% to fall.

Interest rates will only go up when inflation goes up.

What level of inflation will necessitate this move remains to be seen. The 2% BoE target is not worth the paper it is written on.

I believe inflation is now a latent government objective to erode debt.


What do you base the "Have at least 20% to fall." on?

 

[KTF]

From the historical price chart kindly posted on here. It has bounced off the average for the first time instead of ploughing straight through it. This has given bulls false hope. If conditions were right I could imagine price increases - they aren't and by a long way. Mortgages difficult to obtain, large deposits required, historically high prices, high av price to salary, probably new unfavourable taxes ie CGT, oh, and not forgetting a world recession.... We've had maybe one of the longest house price booms in history and you expect a 1 year correction and things to kick on again....

 

[Atilla]

From the historical price chart kindly posted on here. It has bounced off the average for the first time instead of ploughing straight through it. This has given bulls false hope. If conditions were right I could imagine price increases - they aren't and by a long way. Mortgages difficult to obtain, large deposits required, historically high prices, high av price to salary, probably new unfavourable taxes ie CGT, oh, and not forgetting a world recession.... We've had maybe one of the longest house price booms in history and you expect a 1 year correction and things to kick on again....

Problem with charts and prices is that they are not 'real prices'. They are nominal prices.

Comparison to wages (wages = supply and demand in labour force) and wage ratios to house prices is like comparing apples and pears. Just another ratio. Remember - bonus culture is rampant in the UK. Even civil servants and the police get bonuses now...

Why not compare house prices to the value of gold or DOW or FTSE index.

Trillions of billions have been pumped into the economies at a time when world economies have contracted. Where has all that money gone?

In response whole diverse set of asset values will need to be revalued accordingly.

Gold and price of oil is a good starting point. A non-essential and essential - two assets with finite inelastic supply. This is a MUST and an absolute fact! No two ways about it. All that money via transactions will feed into the real economy sooner or later. House supply is pretty inelastic so compared to increasing popullation demand similar in price response.

Now in countries like US and Spain where there is excess supply of housing the story may well be different.

UK - house prices will hold value or rise in the short to medium term.

There - I've already put my kneck on the guillotine about house prices before and now I stick my balls in the vice machine too. :cheesy: