U.S. Portfolio

[malaguti]

I realized that I get stopped out to many times.
The reason this happened it was because I traded a lot.
I will trade less, if I trade less, I get stopped out less, and my broker will get less commission from me.
At this moment, my technical indicators are mixed, so I'll not risk a lot.

Hi Duarte, you could always stop trading, that way then you would not encounter any losses. Of course I'm not serious, but your statement that by reducing your trades then you will reduce your losses, also means you will reduce (potentially) your winning trades. You cant necessarily be that selective. You wont know its a losing trade when you begin, unless all your trades are losing..does that make sense?
Its not the amount of trades you take but such things as stop loss placement, poor entry, lack of a trading plan/strategy that is more at fault, not necessarily the volume.
If you focus on what went wrong with the trade you may find more answers that might help your overall stats, and your account which is looking pretty red
Only want to help if I can

 

[Duarte]

Hi Duarte, you could always stop trading, that way then you would not encounter any losses. Of course I'm not serious, but your statement that by reducing your trades then you will reduce your losses, also means you will reduce (potentially) your winning trades. You cant necessarily be that selective. You wont know its a losing trade when you begin, unless all your trades are losing..does that make sense?
Its not the amount of trades you take but such things as stop loss placement, poor entry, lack of a trading plan/strategy that is more at fault, not necessarily the volume.
If you focus on what went wrong with the trade you may find more answers that might help your overall stats, and your account which is looking pretty red
Only want to help if I can

I've stopped trading because I get stopped out from all open positions, but I'm not very annoyed because of this.
At this moment, I look more closely for the big picture, and as I wrote before, my technical indicators are mixed, so I'll not risk a lot
At some point in the future, I'm going to have all the money invested. I am not in a hurry. I will wait. Stock market trading is a marathon, not a sprint.
.

 

[Duarte]

Here you can see the portfolio update:

I now wait for the next buy signal of my technical indicators.

 

[Duarte]

The U.S market remains very strong. Looking at the monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index we note that the S&P 500 is already above the key level of 1575. As I have written before, if it continues above of 1575 in the next two months, that would be very positive in the long term.
However, this period is still one and a half months away.

This week the CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment Index * was displaying very bullish sentiment with 77%bulls. In rather stark contrast the AAII Investor Sentiment (American Association of Individual Investors) ** reflects very bearish sentiment, with 19,30% bulls and 54% bears, which is surprising since historically, when the market trend is up and new highs are being made, the number of bulls tends to increase rather than decrease.


These AAII Investor Sentiment numbers are typically seen at market bottoms, not during price advances. The traditional interpretation of sentiment readings is contrarian, meaning that AAII Investor Sentiment is giving a bullish signal, and also suggests that Investors are trying to guess a top. We can also consider that investor confidence is lower than it ought to be in the context of a rally, but this is not the traditional interpretation of sentiment readings.

In conclusion, the number of bears suggests that the market will continue to rise but my technical indicators for U.S. market still show mixed signals, so I will not put much money in the stock market. I, however, will follow the market developments next week closely and maybe I will buy one or two shares or ETFs.


(* Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the Consensus Inc. (Consensus - National Futures and Financial Investment Newspaper). The CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment of Market Opinion shows the positions and attitudes of professional brokers and advisors. Polling is conducted on Consensus web site with a Thursday cutoff and Friday release. The survey is available on Saturday for free on the Barrons web site at Barron's Market Lab Table - Barrons.com).

(** Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII: The American Association of Individual Investors). Polling is conducted on the AAII web site with a Wednesday cutoff and Thursday release).

 

[Duarte]

I will buy shares of Kilroy Realty: (NYSE: KRC).

 

[Duarte]

See annotated chart:

 

[Duarte]

The following is the current portfolio:

 

[Duarte]

The following is the market timer portfolio.

 

[Duarte]

The following is the market timer portfolio chart.
The chart is updated on a weekly basis.

 

[Duarte]

The following daily chart gives a short-term perspective for the S&P 500.

The rally that began off the November low has been persistent.
In the context of a Bull Market, the 50 day moving average often serves as a support and that is what happened last Friday.
If the index falls below the 50 day moving average, this will be interpreted as a negative signal.

 

[Duarte]

4 New Buys

 

[Duarte]

Annotated charts:

 

[Duarte]

The following is the portfolio:

 

[Duarte]

4 New Buys and 1 New stop loss order

 

[Duarte]

Annotated charts:

 

[graydrake]

Hi Duarte, you could always stop trading, that way then you would not encounter any losses. Of course I'm not serious, but your statement that by reducing your trades then you will reduce your losses, also means you will reduce (potentially) your winning trades. You cant necessarily be that selective. You wont know its a losing trade when you begin, unless all your trades are losing..does that make sense?
Its not the amount of trades you take but such things as stop loss placement, poor entry, lack of a trading plan/strategy that is more at fault, not necessarily the volume.
If you focus on what went wrong with the trade you may find more answers that might help your overall stats, and your account which is looking pretty red
Only want to help if I can

Duarte

If you are getting stopped out too many times you are entering bad trades. Personally, I do not us stops for losses, but use limit sells for profit on every trade. Your focus must be to stengthen your entry rules. Open a paper money account and trade aggressively until your win/loss ratio delivers a profit. Measure, measure, measure, during this peiod. Then tip toe in with real money. If you can not make a projected profit with paper money, perhaps trading is not for you.

Drake

 

[Duarte]

Duarte

If you are getting stopped out too many times you are entering bad trades. Personally, I do not us stops for losses, but use limit sells for profit on every trade. Your focus must be to stengthen your entry rules. Open a paper money account and trade aggressively until your win/loss ratio delivers a profit. Measure, measure, measure, during this peiod. Then tip toe in with real money. If you can not make a projected profit with paper money, perhaps trading is not for you.

Drake

I'm going to do it my way.
This is not the first time that I trade. My first time trading was like 10 years ago and now it is my profession.
I write again that I am not in a hurry at all. I remain calm and I trust myself. Stock market trading is a marathon, not a sprint. (...)

 

[cascabel559]

Thanks for the interesting perspectives, very thought-provoking indeed.

 

[Duarte]

Listed below is one closed trade:

 

[Duarte]

Current portfolio: