bbmac
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Friday's U.s NFP
Goldman Sachs have lowered their forecast for tomorrow's U.s NFP to +25k from last month's +117k. As usual the key factors will be
a. Headline number and relationship tp previous and forecast
b. Any revision to previous Headline number
c. Private payrolls component number
d. To a lesser extnet the Manufacturing payrolls component number
e. Un-employment rate and relationship to previous and forecast
In recent times, the report (s) have not had the knee-jerk reaction, and to some extent, the same day follow thru impac/reactiont that they used to have, but it's still an eagerly anticipated release.
I guess the key questions on it's release will be
a. Effect on any fed decisions in it's extended meeting later this month ?
and from a market reaction point of view
b. Will a generally bad report be reflected in risk aversion or in $ aversion ?
My Strategy on Gbpusd will be to go with the money should any hi-probability immediate post and post data set-ups result. This may include getting involved in any real momentum plays on the closure of the immediate post data 1min (+) candle (s) depending on the overall PA set-up. 'Sell the 1st Hi-Buy the 1st pullback' -and conversely- 'Buy the 1st Lo-Sell the 1st pullback' classic data/news plays may set up for consideration.
Whatever you decide, hope it treats you well.
G/L
Goldman Sachs have lowered their forecast for tomorrow's U.s NFP to +25k from last month's +117k. As usual the key factors will be
a. Headline number and relationship tp previous and forecast
b. Any revision to previous Headline number
c. Private payrolls component number
d. To a lesser extnet the Manufacturing payrolls component number
e. Un-employment rate and relationship to previous and forecast
In recent times, the report (s) have not had the knee-jerk reaction, and to some extent, the same day follow thru impac/reactiont that they used to have, but it's still an eagerly anticipated release.
I guess the key questions on it's release will be
a. Effect on any fed decisions in it's extended meeting later this month ?
and from a market reaction point of view
b. Will a generally bad report be reflected in risk aversion or in $ aversion ?
My Strategy on Gbpusd will be to go with the money should any hi-probability immediate post and post data set-ups result. This may include getting involved in any real momentum plays on the closure of the immediate post data 1min (+) candle (s) depending on the overall PA set-up. 'Sell the 1st Hi-Buy the 1st pullback' -and conversely- 'Buy the 1st Lo-Sell the 1st pullback' classic data/news plays may set up for consideration.
Whatever you decide, hope it treats you well.
G/L
B
Black Swan
Negative number IMHO..
bbmac
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Do you mean a bad number or an actual jobs loss on the previous month ?
B
Black Swan
Jobs loss..but tbh they have to create circa 250,000 jobs in the USA each month just to stand still, if GS* are right on the money with a prediction of only 25 then it's pretty much close on neg anyhow..but yeah, wtf, I'm going for neg number..
let the chaos ensue..* could always be GS fookin with our minds..
robster970
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Didn't sell off as much as I was expecting posting a 0.
YouAreNotFree
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Ben Bernanke at this very moment is busy greasing the wheels of his printing machine because he is gonna crank that mother f***er up and run it into the ground.
Shocking data. But money printing does work, we just haven't had enough of it. Oh dear.
Shocking data. But money printing does work, we just haven't had enough of it. Oh dear.
robster970
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So you think QE3......N is priced in?
wackypete2
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Nice whipsaw.
I got beaten up a bit. 3 trades total so far for -13 total
1st short = +17
2nd Long = -16
3rd short = -14
I'm gonna wait it out a bit then try 1 more trade. This isn't a game for the faint of heart.
Peter
I got beaten up a bit. 3 trades total so far for -13 total
1st short = +17
2nd Long = -16
3rd short = -14
I'm gonna wait it out a bit then try 1 more trade. This isn't a game for the faint of heart.
Peter
YouAreNotFree
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I think so and we will get 4, 5, 6, 7.............
We are heading towards a massive deflation imo and they are going to print until they run out of trees. This is why I like pm's so much. When /if we get the deflation they will go up. When/ if we get the inflation they will go up. I want my money out of this crazy system.
I'm pleased I took that Brent short this morning.
wackypete2
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I just usually trade the Bernanke Indicator:
- When his mouth is open: Short
- All other times: Long
Peter
bbmac
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Bad U.s Nfp data re headline number in particular (+0k.) Gbpusd goes up on knee-jerk but no real momentum candle close on the immediate knee-jerk 1330pm 1min candle which closed a bit non descript.. Price pulls back to create a 1min hidden divergence based Re-entry to 5min (+) up trend @ 1336...I waited for close of the 5min hammer to enter long off this 1min set-up, – a classic ‘sell the 1st Hi (which I didn’t) – buy the 1st pullback’ data/news play. ...discussed in previous post
1345 price pullback from the potential resistance ofthe Previous 1hr swing hi, Daily R1 area, and 38.2% 6454-6131
to see another 1min hidden divergence based re-entry set-up to 5min (+) uptrend @ 1357..although this sees pip gain, more supply toward the current daily hi at the potential resistance confluence discussed above sees it reverse just off the current daily hi, thus unlike the 'buy the ist pullback' discussed above did not see a with trend follow thru to a new trend hi.
G/L
1345 price pullback from the potential resistance ofthe Previous 1hr swing hi, Daily R1 area, and 38.2% 6454-6131
to see another 1min hidden divergence based re-entry set-up to 5min (+) uptrend @ 1357..although this sees pip gain, more supply toward the current daily hi at the potential resistance confluence discussed above sees it reverse just off the current daily hi, thus unlike the 'buy the ist pullback' discussed above did not see a with trend follow thru to a new trend hi.
G/L
YouAreNotFree
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I think the Bernanke indicator is the only indicator I have found that works
We know his game. He has spent the best part of his academic life studying the Great Depression and we also know his conclusion. At least the guy isn't doing anything he doesn't believe in.
Greenspan was pro-gold and yet look what he did. Nothing more than a traitor to his beliefs and a political shill.
bbmac
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Did risk aversion just hit this gbpusd pairing after the initial NFP react ? or was it technical...ie 1hr hidden divergence play at the previous 4hr/daily swing lo zone (previous support turns to resistance on a pullback from the underside,) co-existant with those other factors mentioned in my last post.
We'll probably never know.
G/L
4hr
1hr
We'll probably never know.
G/L
4hr
1hr
robster970
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Interesting - I wouldn't have assumed more QE was priced in right now. I just thought commercials are generally bearish, vol has gone up a lot and it's just trying to figure out wtf is going on.
Was short ES from Wednesday pm until this morning about 9.30am. ES is swinging nicely at the moment IMO. Intraday off the cards for me right now - too unpredictable even though the moves are great.
bbmac
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Upcoming U.s NFP Fri 03rd Nov 1230pm gmt
So what will happen with tomorrow's U.s NFP (etc) release ? (1230pm gmt)
Well firstly, it's not what it used to be in respect of markets' reaction that's for sure. Secondly we are 'thru the looking glass' and black is white -and- white is black, or at least it can be - ie the reliable old reaction of $ strength on a good number and $ weakness on a poor number has been skewed by the risk-on / risk off thing...ie a good number shows U.s may be growing so there may be a better apetite for riskier assets and $ sells-off as money flows into other such asset classes, and vice versa.
The main variables are of course the headline number itself, the private sector jobs number, and un-employment rate ; their relationship with the previous number, (any revisions to those,) and of course these numbers' relationship to the forecasts.
Add to the usual 'circus' the febrile atmosphere re the Eu/Greek situation and ongoing G20 and anything (or indeed nothing) can happen
Whatever your approach - Good Luck. Anything can happen and I personally don't care what it is - just as long as it does.
' With volatility comes opportunity (for gain and loss) ! '
G/L
Update: forexcrunch.com see it like this: http://www.forexcrunch.com/good-reasons-for-optimism-non-farm-payrolls-preview/
So what will happen with tomorrow's U.s NFP (etc) release ? (1230pm gmt)
Well firstly, it's not what it used to be in respect of markets' reaction that's for sure. Secondly we are 'thru the looking glass' and black is white -and- white is black, or at least it can be - ie the reliable old reaction of $ strength on a good number and $ weakness on a poor number has been skewed by the risk-on / risk off thing...ie a good number shows U.s may be growing so there may be a better apetite for riskier assets and $ sells-off as money flows into other such asset classes, and vice versa.
The main variables are of course the headline number itself, the private sector jobs number, and un-employment rate ; their relationship with the previous number, (any revisions to those,) and of course these numbers' relationship to the forecasts.
Add to the usual 'circus' the febrile atmosphere re the Eu/Greek situation and ongoing G20 and anything (or indeed nothing) can happen
Whatever your approach - Good Luck. Anything can happen and I personally don't care what it is - just as long as it does.
' With volatility comes opportunity (for gain and loss) ! '
G/L
Update: forexcrunch.com see it like this: http://www.forexcrunch.com/good-reasons-for-optimism-non-farm-payrolls-preview/
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