Moneylender
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in and out @ 11950
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Moneylender
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Closed my long @ 970, waiting now!
Dentalfloss
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- Digesting AHCA 'fail', US tax reform prospects, CDU Saarland win,
OPEC/NOPEC production cut extension, awaiting German Ifo and Italy
Confidence surveys, as month/quarter end flows move centre stage
- Germany Ifo: PMIs imply some upside risk, but Raabe comments suggest
downside risks on expectations
- Week Ahead: Eurozone, Japan CPI, US Personal Income/PCE, confidence
surveys and China official PMIs top data run, plenty of Fed and ECB
speakers; Mexico seen hiking rates again, but...
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A quiet day to start this month and quarter ending week will likely see markets expending considerable volumes of hot air discussing the implications of the US Healthcare Act 'fail', the clear victory for Germany's CDU in the state election in the Saarland, and the noises around the potential for a 6-month extension of the OPEC/NOPEC oil production cut deal agreement. On the schedule the German Ifo survey and confidence surveys in the Bella Paese are the only items likely to attract much attention in data terms, while speeches from ECB's Lautenschlaeger and Fed's Evans and Kaplan feature on the events schedule. The US kicks off its usual short/medium-dated month end refinancing exercise with $26.0 Bln of 2-yr. In respect of the German Ifo survey, the much better than expected PMIs would tend to suggest some upside risks relative to the consensus for a marginal uptick in Expectations, and a fractional slip in Current Assessment. The question is whether the as ever gloomy comments of Ifo's chief economist Raabe (it appears to be part of the job description) at the weekend, who opined that most German companies are 'fearful' on the outlook, and do not believe that the current upturn will last, would tend to suggest the risks are the opposite of the consensus. On the Health Care Act 'fail', the initial market reaction with equities drifting lower and the JPY strengthening and USD index weakening implies that markets are signalling a further loss of faith in the Trump 'bump'/reflation trade, perhaps tempered by the White House intention to move swiftly on to the much hoped for tax reform, and a signal that it will reach out to Democrats to enable a legislation in order to avoid hard right GOP dissent (though this should be far less contentious). On the other hand, it may well be the case that quarter end portfolio adjustments, as well as Japanese fiscal year end flows account for some of the moves, and a true picture on sentiment may not emerge until after the Easter holidays.
The Week Ahead - 27 to 31 March 2017
- Statistics: The schedule is certainly not overwhelming, with US Personal Income, final Q4 GDP & Pending Home Sales, German, French, Italian, Spanish, Eurozone and Japanese CPI accompanied by the usual run of month end sentiment/confidence surveys, including the Chicago PMI and the China official NBS Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMIs. Given the combination of the recent setback in wholesale energy prices and base effects, it is little surprise that the various Eurozone and Japan Tokyo CPI readings are forecast to drift down in yr/yr terms, and while this has been largely anticipated, it would be premature to suggest that this signals the 'high water mark' for inflation readings, particularly in so far as there remain upward pressures on food prices, which will also see adverse base effects play out through much of the year, having been a key restraint on inflation in many DM countries in 2016.
- Politics: aside from speculation about US tax reform and broader legislative prospects, this week will also the official trigger of Article 50 in the UK, which will also PM may's govt outline its plans for a wholesale repeal of UK laws that have in any part been dictated by membership of the EU. The primary concern on the latter that much of that can / will be enacted without any formal debate and votes in parliament, which given May's well documented penchant for trenchant authoritarianism could raise considerable concerns. On the other side of the Brexit negotiating table, the EU is also due to publish details of its negotiating stance, in the first instance this will apparently find its focus in establishing the rights of UK and EU citizens, as well as a settlement of the UK's liabilities for longer-term EU related commitments it has previously made.
- Central Banks: it will be another relatively busy week for Fed, ECB and BoE speakers, and the BoE's FPC will outline the metrics for this year's bank stress tests. In the non-G7 space, rates are seen held in Egypt, Hungary, Kenya, South Africa and Thailand, while Ghana's central bank is seen cutting rates by a very modest 25 bps to 25.25%, and Mexico's Banxico is expected to hike rates by a further 25 bps to 6.50%, though the recent recovery in the MXN over recent weeks gives it some scope to pause and await further developments.
- Govt Bond auctions: the US leads the way with $88 Bln of 2, 5 & 7-yr and $13 Bln of 2-yr FRN, the UK offers £2.0 Bln of 5-yr, Germany EUR 4.0 Bln of 2-yr, while Italy sells EUR 2.5 Bln of 2-yr CTZ (zeros) as well as an estimated 4.0-6.0 Bln fo 5-10 yr BTPs, and Finland sells EUR 1.0 Bln of 2023 and Japan JPY 2.3 Trln of 2-yr.
from Marc Ostwald
OPEC/NOPEC production cut extension, awaiting German Ifo and Italy
Confidence surveys, as month/quarter end flows move centre stage
- Germany Ifo: PMIs imply some upside risk, but Raabe comments suggest
downside risks on expectations
- Week Ahead: Eurozone, Japan CPI, US Personal Income/PCE, confidence
surveys and China official PMIs top data run, plenty of Fed and ECB
speakers; Mexico seen hiking rates again, but...
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A quiet day to start this month and quarter ending week will likely see markets expending considerable volumes of hot air discussing the implications of the US Healthcare Act 'fail', the clear victory for Germany's CDU in the state election in the Saarland, and the noises around the potential for a 6-month extension of the OPEC/NOPEC oil production cut deal agreement. On the schedule the German Ifo survey and confidence surveys in the Bella Paese are the only items likely to attract much attention in data terms, while speeches from ECB's Lautenschlaeger and Fed's Evans and Kaplan feature on the events schedule. The US kicks off its usual short/medium-dated month end refinancing exercise with $26.0 Bln of 2-yr. In respect of the German Ifo survey, the much better than expected PMIs would tend to suggest some upside risks relative to the consensus for a marginal uptick in Expectations, and a fractional slip in Current Assessment. The question is whether the as ever gloomy comments of Ifo's chief economist Raabe (it appears to be part of the job description) at the weekend, who opined that most German companies are 'fearful' on the outlook, and do not believe that the current upturn will last, would tend to suggest the risks are the opposite of the consensus. On the Health Care Act 'fail', the initial market reaction with equities drifting lower and the JPY strengthening and USD index weakening implies that markets are signalling a further loss of faith in the Trump 'bump'/reflation trade, perhaps tempered by the White House intention to move swiftly on to the much hoped for tax reform, and a signal that it will reach out to Democrats to enable a legislation in order to avoid hard right GOP dissent (though this should be far less contentious). On the other hand, it may well be the case that quarter end portfolio adjustments, as well as Japanese fiscal year end flows account for some of the moves, and a true picture on sentiment may not emerge until after the Easter holidays.
The Week Ahead - 27 to 31 March 2017
- Statistics: The schedule is certainly not overwhelming, with US Personal Income, final Q4 GDP & Pending Home Sales, German, French, Italian, Spanish, Eurozone and Japanese CPI accompanied by the usual run of month end sentiment/confidence surveys, including the Chicago PMI and the China official NBS Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMIs. Given the combination of the recent setback in wholesale energy prices and base effects, it is little surprise that the various Eurozone and Japan Tokyo CPI readings are forecast to drift down in yr/yr terms, and while this has been largely anticipated, it would be premature to suggest that this signals the 'high water mark' for inflation readings, particularly in so far as there remain upward pressures on food prices, which will also see adverse base effects play out through much of the year, having been a key restraint on inflation in many DM countries in 2016.
- Politics: aside from speculation about US tax reform and broader legislative prospects, this week will also the official trigger of Article 50 in the UK, which will also PM may's govt outline its plans for a wholesale repeal of UK laws that have in any part been dictated by membership of the EU. The primary concern on the latter that much of that can / will be enacted without any formal debate and votes in parliament, which given May's well documented penchant for trenchant authoritarianism could raise considerable concerns. On the other side of the Brexit negotiating table, the EU is also due to publish details of its negotiating stance, in the first instance this will apparently find its focus in establishing the rights of UK and EU citizens, as well as a settlement of the UK's liabilities for longer-term EU related commitments it has previously made.
- Central Banks: it will be another relatively busy week for Fed, ECB and BoE speakers, and the BoE's FPC will outline the metrics for this year's bank stress tests. In the non-G7 space, rates are seen held in Egypt, Hungary, Kenya, South Africa and Thailand, while Ghana's central bank is seen cutting rates by a very modest 25 bps to 25.25%, and Mexico's Banxico is expected to hike rates by a further 25 bps to 6.50%, though the recent recovery in the MXN over recent weeks gives it some scope to pause and await further developments.
- Govt Bond auctions: the US leads the way with $88 Bln of 2, 5 & 7-yr and $13 Bln of 2-yr FRN, the UK offers £2.0 Bln of 5-yr, Germany EUR 4.0 Bln of 2-yr, while Italy sells EUR 2.5 Bln of 2-yr CTZ (zeros) as well as an estimated 4.0-6.0 Bln fo 5-10 yr BTPs, and Finland sells EUR 1.0 Bln of 2023 and Japan JPY 2.3 Trln of 2-yr.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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20570 big rez
Dentalfloss
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move to 20430 could be fake
Dentalfloss
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2 weeks of data
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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20400 area..our marked supp
could get a decent sing trade
could get a decent sing trade
Dentalfloss
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ftse aswell
7320 rez
7320 rez
Dentalfloss
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popss swing trade..first stop 20685DOW updated
2 big rez areas
bears will want to keep it below 20800-20820
lets see what happens
no guarantees
watching for supp to hold first
Dentalfloss
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ftse in horizontal supp area 7250..ish
Dentalfloss
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cable in rez
Dentalfloss
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oil in supp
Morning all,
Ftse in sp 7250ish...getting a bid...see how it reacts... if it gets through 7280 looking good 7310...if it cant get through 7270...then 7230...possibly.
Nasty spike took me out on Aussie long from 0.7625...
Cable in rez...scalps S from 1.2575ish for now...
Looking at WTI...sp 4750... flat atm see how it reacts...open to a swing trade long from that area..
Dentist spot on...as usual....:smart::smart::smart:
Ftse in sp 7250ish...getting a bid...see how it reacts... if it gets through 7280 looking good 7310...if it cant get through 7270...then 7230...possibly.
Nasty spike took me out on Aussie long from 0.7625...
Cable in rez...scalps S from 1.2575ish for now...
Looking at WTI...sp 4750... flat atm see how it reacts...open to a swing trade long from that area..
Dentist spot on...as usual....:smart::smart::smart:
Need some Brexit news to move cable...
Noted that the civil service are unavailable/looking for other jobs/seeking early retirement/long term sick etc when it comes to dealing with Brexit issues....no surprises there...it an admin nightmare lol
Noted that the civil service are unavailable/looking for other jobs/seeking early retirement/long term sick etc when it comes to dealing with Brexit issues....no surprises there...it an admin nightmare lol
Dentalfloss
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gold in mega rez
Dentalfloss
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wham
excellent results
Dentalfloss
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whacko..
not sure about swing trade..got a decent long
Dentalfloss
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usdchf lookin a tad oversold
in a pivot
lets see how it gets handled
in a pivot
lets see how it gets handled
Dentalfloss
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