Trading with point and figure

Commons Leader David Lidington has told MPs a "police officer has been stabbed" and the "alleged assailant was shot by armed police" following a "serious" incident within the parliamentary estate.
 
:cheers:
joseph1986 said:
:)
what are your thoughts on gold? 1300?
Click to expand...

can it get thru 1265 and have a reasonable pullback...then you might get a crack at 1280
if 1265 holds on pullback...then a shot at 1300
1285 is a prev supp...could get bumpy there


gonna cost you...a pint of Stella
Moneylender will be around later to collect it
 

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Morning boss, sad times indeed. Remember walking over that same bridge last time I was in the city, heading to the L Eye.

Do I need to bring the heavies boss?
 
- Busier day for data and events: London terrorism aftermath and US
healthcare vote in focus; UK Retail Sales, ECB TLTRO2 & Bulletin,
US Jobless Claims and New Home Sales, Yellen & other Fed/SNB speakers
also on tap

- UK Retail Sales: CPI data implies downside risks relative to forecast,
leaving BOE with a large dilemma

- ECB TLTRO2: strong demand expected, whisper sees possibility of
much larger take-up

- US New Home Sales: solid again expected, as sales get boost from dearth
of existing homes for sale

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

There is rather more meat on the bone of the day's calendar, though the US House vote on the American Health Care Act may prove to be the main focal point, along with the aftermath of London's barbaric terrorist attack. Statistically there are UK Retail Sales and US weekly jobless claims and New Home Sales along with a number of surveys: German GfK Consumer Confidence (slipping to 9.8 vs. expected 10.0), French Business Confidence, UK Distributive Trades and US KC Fed Manufacturing. In policy terms, the ECB publishes its Economic Bulletin and the results of its final TLTRO2 long-term refinancing operation, while Yellen is among today's Fed speakers, though her topic is not policy related. The fourth and final TLTRO2 is expected to see very robust demand, with the consensus looking for EUR 125 Bln, though the whisper on the street looks to be rather closer to EUR 150 Bln, and perhaps much, much higher given the increasing ECB chatter about potentially raising rates later in the year. The front end of Eurozone govt bond markets, above all the so-called 'periphery', will certainly be sensitive to the size of the allotment, a larger than expected allotment providing a boost, and vice versa.

** U.K. - Feb Retail Sales **
- Following on from Tuesday's much higher than expected CPI data, today's Retail Sales are seen rebounding 0.4% m/m, which would be a modest correction to the run of -0.3%, -2.1% and -0.2% m/m in the preceding 3 months, eminently those readings followed October's 2.1% m/m surge. However the recent weakness looks to be a little difficult to explain away via the usual 'seasonally very noisy data'. While the forecast looks sensible in that context, the CPI data with its broad range of increases implies downside risks relative to forecasts. If these downside risks materialize, the implications for market expectations on BoE policy will see a further shift, with a scenario in which consumer prices are accelerating higher, but being accompanied by real wages falling and consumer spending stalling (as the BoE agents' reports hinted at yesterday) leaving the BoE in an unenviable position in terms of the policy outlook; it would seem reasonable to assume that those voicing concerns about the inflation outlook at the most recent meeting likely to be reticent to tighten policy when real wages are negative and consumer spending stalling. As previously noted, the BoE remains extraordinarily vulnerable to the charge that it overreacted in the immediate post-referendum environment, and its rhetoric and August easing measures were the key contributor to Sterling's fall, which in turn has been a key factor in the current round of inflationary pressures.

** U.S.A. - Initial Claims / Feb New Home Sales **
- If there is one consistent reminder whatever doubts emerge about Trump's fiscal, trade and economic policies, that the US labour market is tight and as such that the Fed can ill afford to get 'behind the curve', it is weekly jobless Claims. These are expected to be little changed at 240K, in the middle of the 223k to 260k range which has been seen year to date. Following the largely as expected dip in Existing Home Sales yesterday, today's New Home Sales are seen rising 1.8% m/m to a 565K SAAR pace, with some risk of a higher than expected reading given the very low level of existing home inventories, and ongoing strength in demand. That said this is a very small sample set, and prone to much volatility.


from Marc Ostwald
 
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