Trading with point and figure

dax
into the open

33vixbs.gif
 
Morning folks,

Ftse think buyers will sniff sp 7310-20 could go 7340 possible rez 7360-70 if there is interest.. if not we will need to see how 7300 holds...think it will be good for scalps in and out if it gets there before setting the tone for the day...lets see
 
- Lightweight data & events schedule features Japan Trade, US Existing
Home Sales, FHFA House Prices, Brazil IBGE Inflation, Lautenschlaeger
speech, UK/German auctions... markets likely to navel gaze after
modest risk off correction

- US Existing Home Sales: modest setback from 10-yr high expected,
inventories also in focus

- Charts: WTI, US HY bond ETF vs S&P500, VIX, EuroStoxx50, EUR ITraxx
Crossover (Dec 21), JPM EMBI spread

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Those hoping for some inspiration from today's schedule of data and events may well expend a good deal of perspiration without the sought for 'inspiration', which in many ways reflects the ambience of markets for much of 2017, a lot of hope and fear expended on 'game changing' events which have for the most part little better than one minute wonders. Statistically there are better than expected Japanese trade data to digest ahead of US FHFA House Prices and Existing Home Sales along with IBGE IPCA-15 inflation in Brazil, in Canada it is Budget day, while Germany via 10-yr and the UK with 30-yr feature on the government bond auction calendar, and last but not least after a larger than expected build in API crude inventories, we have the EIA's equivalent measure. In respect of the latest Brazil inflation data, a further deceleration to just 4.76% y/y underlines the scope that the BCB has to slash rates dramatically, which should in turn offer some support to the economy. However the latest scandal surrounding tainted beef underlines that the headwinds to the Brazilian economy are far more structural, requiring both a huge clean-up of corrupt practices and politicians, as well as root and branch reforms, which will require a degree of tenacity and determination, for which there is little evidence in this, prospective or previous governments. Be that as it may, the angst on display in 'risk assets' yesterday ahead of the Healthcare Bill vote underlines the degree to which the Trump 'rally' has been built on the assumption that words will be turned to action, as well as the increased downside risk due to diminished downside protection for equities after last week's quadruple witching. The key question given that the rise in the VIX was very modest and it remains historically very low, is whether yesterday's 'risk off' was primarily capitulation on Trump bump / reflation trades or whether it signals a genuine reversal of sentiment? For the time being, especially with quarter end and the Easter holiday break looming, this looks to be primarily a purging of what are in some cases some rather 'stale' positions, and in any case looks like a very modest correction given the scale of the rally in risk assets since the November US election.

** U.S.A. - Feb Existing Home Sales **
- Following on from Rosengren's overnight warning that the US housing market may increasingly pose a risk to the economy and for Fed policy, today's Existing Home Sales are forecast to show a 2.5% m/m dip to a 5.55 Mln SAAR pace, after hitting a 10-yr high of 5.69 Mln SAAR in January, which most view as a pace of sales which is not sustainable. The consensus forecast would certainly fit with the leading indication of a 2.8% m/m fall in January's Pending Home Sales. That said, the latest NAHB survey underscores the view that housing demand remains robust, and given the low level of inventories for sale, new housing construction should remain solid. That low level of housing stock for sale is expected to see the FHFA House Price measure post a 0.4% m/m rise, which should see the y/y pace little changed around 6.2%.

from Marc Ostwald
 
swissy said:
Morning folks,

Ftse think buyers will sniff sp 7310-20 could go 7340 possible rez 7360-70 if there is interest.. if not we will need to see how 7300 holds...think it will be good for scalps in and out if it gets there before setting the tone for the day...lets see
Click to expand...

Decent bounce off 7300 zone...
 
1 box horizontal count....20500 looks the better bet...lol
care with that
there is also a target of 19900
opposing counts....difficult...lol
 
47.75 to 48.00 first rez area...if it bounces
started a new downmove on 16th march
oil inventories later today
 
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