Moneylender
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Morning all, nice to wake up to a profitable Dow!
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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cable in focus today
Dentalfloss
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- Focus on UK inflation readings and Fed speakers, as surging Oz house
Prices prompt RBA warning, French Presidential TV debate does little
to shake up polls
- UK CPI: food and fuel expected to pace increase, upside risks from
clothing and array of imported goods prices
- Fed speakers: hawks on parade, will they stick to unified message?
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today's schedule looks to have two points of focus, the full-on gamut of UK inflation data and today's Fed speakers. To be sure there are other items such as the very unsurprising overnight March RBA minutes, speeches from Carney and Dudley, though their focus will be on banking ethics, and ECB's Villeroy; statistically the US publishes its Q4 Current Account and Canada has its generally very accurate, but not timely, Retail Sales. It is ironic, though probably more a function of happenstance, that today's Fed speakers features many of the most hawkish members - George, Mester and Rosengren. They may well all suggest that they favour 3 more rate hikes, and see risks that the Fed could end up 'behind the curve', but much depends on the extent to which the FOMC wants to present a relatively unified view on the policy outlook, above all given the observable efficacy of the pre-March meeting verbal intervention. That said, it is a long time until June, and as such short-term case for such rhetorical and presentational niceties is underwhelming, though the very dovish Evans' comments yesterday could be constructed as suggesting that the FOMC may well stick to the 'dot plot' trajectory for the time being. Markets will also be digesting yesterday's French presidential TV debate, even though it did little outside of suggesting that Fillon's prospects cannot be completely written off, despite the investigation into alleged misuse of public funds.
** U.K. - February CPI, RPI, PPI, House Prices **
- Following the usual January seasonal discounting and reversal of Christmas airfare rises, February's consumer inflation readings are projected to see relatively sharp jumps of 0.5% m/m for CPI and 0.8% m/m for RPI, which would push y/y rates up to 2.1% and 2.9% respectively, while the new official CPIH measure which incorporates a housing cost element is seen at 2.2%. Forecasts assume that petrol and food prices will be the key drivers, though a reversal of January's steep fall in clothing prices may add pressure, along with a broad array of anecdotal and statistical evidence suggesting retailers pursuing a more aggressive pass-through of rising import prices, now that prior currency hedges have largely expired. The latest PPI data are seen underlining the continued high level of pipeline pressures with Input Prices forecast to be restrained in m/m terms by a dip in energy prices, but still jump up to 20.1% y/y due to base effects. The risks above all for CPI & RPI look to be firmly skewed to the upside of the consensus estimates, the question then is whether this might prompt the MPC's waverers to join Forbes in voting for a rate hike. There certainly is a group of market participants who not only think that rates may well rise this year, but that the first move could even materialize as early as the May inflation report meeting. As the attached table of BoE rate expectations by meeting highlights, this is not even vaguely discounted as a possibility in market rates.
from Marc Ostwald
Prices prompt RBA warning, French Presidential TV debate does little
to shake up polls
- UK CPI: food and fuel expected to pace increase, upside risks from
clothing and array of imported goods prices
- Fed speakers: hawks on parade, will they stick to unified message?
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today's schedule looks to have two points of focus, the full-on gamut of UK inflation data and today's Fed speakers. To be sure there are other items such as the very unsurprising overnight March RBA minutes, speeches from Carney and Dudley, though their focus will be on banking ethics, and ECB's Villeroy; statistically the US publishes its Q4 Current Account and Canada has its generally very accurate, but not timely, Retail Sales. It is ironic, though probably more a function of happenstance, that today's Fed speakers features many of the most hawkish members - George, Mester and Rosengren. They may well all suggest that they favour 3 more rate hikes, and see risks that the Fed could end up 'behind the curve', but much depends on the extent to which the FOMC wants to present a relatively unified view on the policy outlook, above all given the observable efficacy of the pre-March meeting verbal intervention. That said, it is a long time until June, and as such short-term case for such rhetorical and presentational niceties is underwhelming, though the very dovish Evans' comments yesterday could be constructed as suggesting that the FOMC may well stick to the 'dot plot' trajectory for the time being. Markets will also be digesting yesterday's French presidential TV debate, even though it did little outside of suggesting that Fillon's prospects cannot be completely written off, despite the investigation into alleged misuse of public funds.
** U.K. - February CPI, RPI, PPI, House Prices **
- Following the usual January seasonal discounting and reversal of Christmas airfare rises, February's consumer inflation readings are projected to see relatively sharp jumps of 0.5% m/m for CPI and 0.8% m/m for RPI, which would push y/y rates up to 2.1% and 2.9% respectively, while the new official CPIH measure which incorporates a housing cost element is seen at 2.2%. Forecasts assume that petrol and food prices will be the key drivers, though a reversal of January's steep fall in clothing prices may add pressure, along with a broad array of anecdotal and statistical evidence suggesting retailers pursuing a more aggressive pass-through of rising import prices, now that prior currency hedges have largely expired. The latest PPI data are seen underlining the continued high level of pipeline pressures with Input Prices forecast to be restrained in m/m terms by a dip in energy prices, but still jump up to 20.1% y/y due to base effects. The risks above all for CPI & RPI look to be firmly skewed to the upside of the consensus estimates, the question then is whether this might prompt the MPC's waverers to join Forbes in voting for a rate hike. There certainly is a group of market participants who not only think that rates may well rise this year, but that the first move could even materialize as early as the May inflation report meeting. As the attached table of BoE rate expectations by meeting highlights, this is not even vaguely discounted as a possibility in market rates.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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nas 100/leading..??
pump or dump..
pump or dump..
Dentalfloss
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dow 20960...pump or dump
Dentalfloss
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eurusd in rez
Dentalfloss
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ditto eurjpy
Morning folks,
Ftse pump or dump 7440 rez... in that zone now...sp 7410.
Cable entering rez 1.24, see how it handles it, sp1.235..could go 1.245
Oil WTI not sure...again..also using May 17 futures prices now which might confuse others.. but tad bearish atm.
Ftse pump or dump 7440 rez... in that zone now...sp 7410.
Cable entering rez 1.24, see how it handles it, sp1.235..could go 1.245
Oil WTI not sure...again..also using May 17 futures prices now which might confuse others.. but tad bearish atm.
Dentalfloss
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oil....seems to be getting a bid
oil....seems to be getting a bid
it does... 50 the biggie.... lets see if it gets through 4950-60
Dentalfloss
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Ivanka Trump being sued.....Dow gonna tank
Dentalfloss
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posted yesterday at 2.37pmoil
yes sir 49.50
cable strength taking index down... see if cable gets faded...
Nope....back to sp 7410 zone cable bid up on CPI data
Atilla
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Scalp long from that zone currently...could make 7420 possible 7440 again....cable fading a tad now (scalp short from 1.246)
tricky....out on cable, still holding ftse
