Trading with point and figure

As Moneylender said, res at 12k. Support could come in at 11928-40 on my chart and everything in between is just chop. Some levels for scalping may show themselves but until then I'm not touching the dax
 
there is a horizontal supp area that starts at 44.87 to 47.17 area on oil

G'day,

Agree on WTI. If 48 gives way I have 45 marked as major support. After that 40...which is puke territory. I'd be jumping in feet first long swing if it goes 35 - 37!

Longs are getting a battering but in the long term I think they will be building longs from 46 down, can they hold that long for longer :D:p lol.
 
Price in the middle of a range!

jsg4n4.jpg
 
- Digesting weak Japan Orders, awaiting ECB speakers, activity likely
subdued ahead of run of event risk during the remainder of the week

- Central banks, above all Fed, 'front and centre' for week ahead; busy
run of US and China data, and Dutch general election also in focus

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

N.B. US/Canada clocks went forward 1 hour on Sunday, NY is now GMT -4 Hrs, Chicago GMT -5 Hrs

Given the multiple event risks, today's session is likely to see subdued trading ranges and volumes, with little more than the weak Japan Machinery Orders to digest ahead of the US Labour Market Conditions Index. On the policy front there are a number of ECB speakers including Draghi at 14.30 GMT, but most are speaking at a "Fostering innovation and entrepreneurship" conference, and are thus not that likely to address the policy outlook.

For the week as a whole, US (CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, NY/Philly Fed and Michigan Sentiment surveys) and China (Retail Sales, Industrial Production, FAI and Property Prices) dominate the data schedule, with UK and Australian labour data, Germany's ZEW survey and final Eurozone CPI also due. However pride of place in market terms will go to central banks, with the Fed, BoJ, BoE and SNB all holding policy meetings. A Fed rate hike is now fully discounted, with Friday's very solid labour market report cementing that expectation, and leaving markets looking for 'guidance' on the rate trajectory, above all from the often misconstrued and over-emphasized (i.e. by markets) 'dot plot', as well as adjustments to the Fed's latest set of central economic projections, with the statement eyed for the balance of risks assessment for the economy, above all for the Fed's inflation and employment targets. 'Data dependency' will doubtless remain the key watchword, and Yellen's press conference message will re-emphasize that the FOMC is not 'behind the curve', though the minutes (in 3 weeks) will doubtless underline that there is a sizeable minority who are very concerned that the Fed is 'behind the curve'. For more please see Stephen Lewis' most recent Economic Insights "This Time It's Different". The BoE will be closely watched for any hints that it is increasingly concerned about upside risks to its growth, inflation and labour market forecasts, though it seems likely it will 'stick to its guns' for the time being. As for the Bank of Japan, there has been much chatter that the BoJ is tapering by 'stealth', which given a mixed run of recent data above all in terms of sluggish domestic demand and no signs of any pick up in wage growth, it will doubtless attempt to lean against. The G20 Finance Ministers' meeting (17-18 March) will be closely watched amid some expectations that the communique may drop the usual warning about protectionism for the first time in more than 10 years. Last but not last tomorrow sees the Dutch general election, which according to the latest polls will see around four parties gaining some 22-25 seats in the 150 seats Dutch parliament, including Geert Wilders PVV, though the other main parties have already ruled out any form of coalition with the PVV. The post-election negotiations to form a new coalition will thus likely be very protracted, particularly if Mr Wilders PVV gains most seats.


********************* OVERNIGHT HEADLINES ********************

Japan - Surprise fall in Jan Machinery Orders raises doubts about recovery
- Jan core Machinery orders -3.2 pct m/m vs forecast +0.5 pct
- Core Machinery orders -8.2 pct yr/yr vs forecast -3.3 pct
- Capex seen crucial for sustainable economic growth
- BOJ seen keeping policy steady at two-day meeting, March 15-16
- Feb CGPI (domestic corp goods prices) +0.2% m/m, +1.0% y/y
- Compares to January's +0.5% and +0.6%, December's -1.2% and +0.7%

Japan - BOJ seen standing pat, may highlight disparity on growth & prices
- 2-day meeting ends Mar 16, decision expected 0330-0530 GMT
- BOJ seen keeping interest rate targets unchanged
- BOJ upbeat on economy, gloomy on inflation - sources
- Gov Kuroda to brief media March 16 0630 GMT

China/FX - No "bottom line" for yuan or fx reserves - China c.bank official

China - Chinese provinces fizz with fervour for Xi's New Silk Road

China - CSRC OKs China joint infra projects to issue ABS

China/Agri - China's wheat imports forecast to rise, corn output to drop
- Mizuho analyst
- China forecast to import 4.5 mln T of wheat in 2016/17
- Corn production to fall as soybean output rises

China - China bird flu death toll rises to 161 in worst outbreak since
2009

U.S.A. - U.S. to keep Aaa-rating after debt ceiling - Moody's

Malaysia - Jan Industrial Production up 3.5% y/y, below forecast 5.7% y/y

N.Zealand - Feb Food Prices rise 0.2% m/m 2.2% y/y
- House Prices firmed slightly in February - REINZ
- Feb REINZ House Prices 0.3% m/m 14/1% y/y

U.K. - UK has a Brexit backup plan if talks fail - says Brexit minister

India - Modi's BJP sees bigger India mandate in 2019 after state landslide

Iceland - Iceland ends capital controls after more than eight years of
restrictions



------------- TOP FIXED INCOME / FX / COMMODITY HEADLINES ----------------

** FOREX **

> Euro up near 1-month high after ECB rate hike talk, dollar drifts
> China's yuan firms on weaker dollar, awaits Premier Li, Fed rate clues
> Australia, NZ dlrs at multi week lows on the euro, eye Fed
> EM Asia FX: Asian currencies gain some respite, focus on pace of Fed hikes
> Euro rises to one-month high against the dollar
> Sterling skids to 8-week low vs euro on news of ECB rate hike discussion
> C$ strengthens as jobs rise offsets trade risks
> Brazil rate futures fall on bets of steeper rate cut
> CFTC IMM CTA data - Specs up net long USD bets to highest since early Feb
> EUR shorts largest since early Jan, 59.5k contracts, JPY 54.7k, GBP 81.4k


** FIXED INCOME **

> JGBs in tight range in quiet session
> US Treasury 10s indicated at 2.579%, 2s at 1.354%
> WSJ: ECB's Smets says bank hasn't taken first step toward removing stimulus
> Asia Credit: Risk sentiment supported by Wall Street gains
> Kazakhstan's state-run 'bad bank' to buy assets from KKB - cenbank
> US high-grade supply to shrink after hectic week
> US junk bonds busy, but fatigue rears its head
> Brazil rate futures fall on bets of steeper rate cut
> Singapore hints at covered bond reforms
> HSBC breaks with tradition, names AIA boss Tucker as chairman
> Starbucks quenches Japanese thirst for SRI bonds
> Woori Bank hires for investor meetings
> Harley-Davidson hires JPM for Australian and Singapore roadshow
> US companies face US$2trn debt refinancing by 2021: Moody's
> Sceptics wonder if bond rally is too fast, too furious
> BAML taps Cooney to run Americas ECM
> Lebanon plans triple-tranche refi


** COMMODITIES & ENERGY **

> Oil prices hit 3-month low as U.S. rig count climbs
> Gold edges up on Europe political risk, but US rate outlook drags
> London copper rises for 2nd day amid firmer euro, Peru strike
> Shanghai steel up nearly 3 pct on seasonal demand, lifts iron ore
> Soybean prices edge away from 2-mth low, but ample supply drags
> Raw sugar climbs off 3-month lows, NY cocoa rebounds
> Palm falls over 2 pct, tracking weakness in rival oils and poor demand

> Speculators cut U.S. crude oil net longs for second week - CFTC
> Speculators slash net long COMEX gold, silver positions
> Speculators lift bearish ICE cocoa stance to record
> Union at BHP Billiton's Escondida mine rejects offer to resume talks
> India gold recycling plan fails to tempt households
> Strike hits output at top Peru copper mine Cerro Verde -union
> U.S. aluminium foil producers launch case accusing China of dumping
> Indonesian miner Antam to seek permit to export 6 mln T of nickel ore
> Peru metals smelter draws zero bids in first auction
> Brazil miner Vale hires head hunter to find CEO successor by May
> Despite sanctions relief, Shell still cool on Iranian oil buys
> Kemp: OPEC aims in vain for the Goldilocks oil price
> Suncor says to take days to restore ops after Colorado refinery outage
> S.Korea's KOGAS to seek more flexible LNG contracts - CEO
> China's teapot refineries lobby for fuel export permits
> Oil trading giant Vitol bets on fuel retail for growth
> Trillion-dollar question looms as Aramco audits oil reserves
> U.S. refiners' biofuel bill soars to record high as debate heats up
> Majors exiting Canada's oil sands acting in own interest -Trudeau
> U.S. oil rig count rises to most since Sept. 2015 -Baker Hughes
> Native American groups take oil pipeline protests to White House
> Egypt's wheat reserves to double with start of harvest -supply min
> U.S., Mexico launch new round of negotiations on sugar trade
> China's wheat imports forecast to rise, corn output to drop -analyst
> Optimism remains for U.S. soy exports amid Brazilian competition
> Brazil soy harvest 56 pct complete, ahead of average -AgRural
> China bird flu death toll rises to 161 in worst outbreak since 2009
> South Africa's low maize prices could put farmers under pressure
> Vietnam's 2017 coffee exports volume seen falling 20-30 pct y/y
> Tunisia buys 75,000 tonnes milling wheat in tender
> Bird flu strikes Tennessee chickens again, in a less-dangerous form
> Oklahoma wildfires kill thousands of pigs at Smithfield, Seaboard farms


===================== ** CORPORATE / EQUITY HEADLINES ** =================

** TOP STORIES ** Asian Companies / Indices **
..........................................................................

> Asian shares edge up but caution prevails ahead of Fed

> CSRC approves 10 A-share IPOs of combined Rmb4.9bn
> HSBC breaks with tradition, names AIA boss Tucker as chairman
> Smart condo conundrum: Talk to appliances, or text them?
> Union at BHP Billiton's Escondida mine rejects offer to resume talks
> Toshiba Tec shares rise more than 6 pct on sale report
> Tesla's Musk discusses energy proposal with South Australian govt
> Boeing China plant to deliver 100 737s a year, first in 2018 -Xinhua
> Companies to invest $3.3 billion in solar projects in Vietnam's Daklak
> Korea's Hyundai Eng. in $3.2 bln Iran deal awaiting funding
> Vietnam state coffee firm plans 35-pct stake sale in IPO
> Cruise control: China squeezes S.Korea as boats and planes stay away

..........................................................................

** TOP STORIES ** Americas Companies / Indices **
..........................................................................

> Wall St ends up; jobs data points to economic strength
> US indices rise: Dow 0.2 pct, S&P 0.3 pct, Nasdaq 0.4 pct
> TSX ekes out gain as gold miners shine, TD Bank slumps

> Wall St Week Ahead: Some bank bulls grow wary on policy uncertainty
> Trump chooses Gottlieb to run FDA; Pharma breathes sigh of relief
> Trump aides attack agency that will analyze health bill's costs
> BlackRock vows new pressure on climate, board diversity
> Boeing China plant to deliver 100 737s a year, first in 2018 -Xinhua
> Smart condo conundrum: Talk to appliances, or text them?
> Data on heart benefits of Amgen drug is key to unlocking sales
> Millennial love for Snapchat extends to the stock
> Companies to invest $3.3 billion in solar projects in Vietnam's Daklak
> Starbucks says boycott threats over refugee hiring hasn't hurt brand
> Norwegian Cruise shares could rise 25 percent - Barron's
> Jump in full-time hiring boosts Canadian labor market in Feb
> Majors exiting Canada's oil sands acting in own interest -Trudeau
> Canada says most border-crossing asylum seekers were in U.S. legally
> Canada pension funds to invest in Singapore, Indonesia warehouses
> Canada Revenue Agency resumes online services after 2-day outage
> Toronto-Dominion Bank defends business practices after media report
> Snowden shelterers in Hong Kong seek Canada asylum - lawyer
> Golf-Hadwin clinches first PGA Tour victory, honeymoon on hold
> Surprise drop in Brazil inflation paves way for sharper rate cut
> U.S., Mexico launch new round of negotiations on sugar trade
> Brazil stumbles in first bond of year
> Brazil's Cemig seeks partner, IPO for two main units -source
> Former interim Mexican governor arrested, jailed
> Decline in migration under Trump could quickly reverse, history shows
> Strike hits output at top Peru copper mine Cerro Verde -union
> Caribbean nations meet in Havana on migration, trade as Trump era begins
> Doubts over iron ore outlook cap rally in Brazil's Vale shares
> BHP's Escondida approaches striking union, eyes new offer
> Puerto Rico to roll out revamped fiscal turnaround plan Saturday
> Honduran president claims victory in party primary
> Death toll from Guatemala children's shelter fire rises to 39

........................................................................

From Marc Ostwald
 
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