Moneylender
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,693
- Likes
- 369
Fair play we aren't usually that far out
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Fair play we aren't usually that far out
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
bounce...excellent
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
a bad bounce...sellers in for a kill
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
true
Moneylender
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,693
- Likes
- 369
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
needs to see 20720 area as rez
Moneylender
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,693
- Likes
- 369
All of the US indices are moving higher, a short is risky, but the top must come soon.
Famous last words.
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
poss 20720 and above is rez
20734 is prev supp
20734 is prev supp
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
20676 is a supp area...already tested once
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
difficult....lol
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
oil in supp
could bring down energy sector
could bring down energy sector
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
dax lookin a bit overbought
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
a large deviation from trendline...poss a tad overbought
2 weeks of data
2 weeks of data
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
gotchaa large deviation from trendline...poss a tad overbought
2 weeks of data
dow aswell from 20750 horizontal rez
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
will 12K hold.?
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
- Busier day for statistics, digesting Australia Wages, China Home Prices;
awaiting Ifo, detailed UK Q4 GDP, US Existing Home Sales; focus on FOMC
Minutes; politics still casting a long shadow; Germany 30-yr, Spain 15-yr
and US 5-yr to be sold
- Germany Ifo: PMIs and broader array of anecdotal evidence suggests
upside risks relative to forecasts
- UK GDP: seen unrevised, focus on Index of Services & Business Investment
- US FOMC minutes: discussion on inflation, labour market slack and balance
sheet reduction to be key points of interest
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
After two rather quieter days in terms of scheduled data and events, there is rather more on the menu today. Once the benign Australian Wages and China Property Prices have been digested, the focus turns to the detailed UK Q4 GDP release which is accompanied by the latest Index of Services and provisional Q4 Business Investment, while elsewhere there are Germany's Ifo Business Climate, Eurozone final CPI, US Existing Home Sales, Canadian Retail Sales along with Mexican and Colombian Q4 GDP. On the policy front there are the latest FOMC minutes and more Fed speak, along with a speech by BoE's Cunliffe, there is the technical committee meeting in OPEC/NOPEC production compliance, while it is Budget day in South Africa. On the govt bond auction front, an as ever tiny EUR 1.0 Bln of 30-yr Bunds, and US 2-yr FRN and new US 5-yr Treasury will be sold, while Spain sells a new 2033 via syndication. Forecasts for the German Ifo survey assume a marginal setback in current conditions and expectations, though this would still leave indices close to their recent highs, and if yesterday's PMIs are a guide (which is not always the case), then the risks look to be heavily skewed to the upside, continuing to underline solid underlying momentum in the economy.
** U.K. - Q4 GDP, Index of Services, Business Investment **
- GDP is expected to be unrevised at the better than originally expected 0.6% q/q 2.2% y/y, notwithstanding the much stronger Manufacturing data and the weaker Retail Sales, with the latter expected to have been offset by continued strength in consumer spending on services (particularly bars and restaurants). The more detailed report is also forecast to show a strong contribution from Trade, with Exports seen up 2.0% q/q against a rise of 0.6% q/q Imports, though it should be stressed that this is not attributable to the GBP's fall post-Brexit, given that the vast bulk of orders related to durable shipments would have been made prior to the referendum. Perhaps the most interesting item will be Business Investment, which is seen flat q/q after a 0.4% q/q in Q3, though the latter is as ever subject to what are often quite extensive revisions.
** U.S.A. - FOMC minutes / Jan Existing Home Sales **
- Existing Home Sales are forecast to have rebounded 1.1% to a SAAR pace of 5.55 Mln, after slipping 2.9% m/m in December, which would continue to signal a robust pace of sales. As ever, a close eye will need to be kept on inventories, which sunk to a very low 3.6 months of supply in December, having been at 4.7 months in July. The Jan 31/Feb 1 FOMC meeting having been a non-press conference meeting imparts a rather higher order of interest in today's minutes, notwithstanding Yellen's testimony in the intervening period. Of specific note will be the discussion on inflation, given that the statement suggested that the firmer trend was not 'transient', and indeed how much slack there was left in the labour market. But most attention will clearly be directed at the discussion on the Fed's balance sheet, both in procedural terms as well as on potential timing. It will also be interesting to see how they viewed the balance of risks in terms to the policy outlook from fiscal measures, beyond the dull observation that there is a lot of uncertainty of what will or will not be enacted by the Trump regime and Congress.
from Marc Ostwald
awaiting Ifo, detailed UK Q4 GDP, US Existing Home Sales; focus on FOMC
Minutes; politics still casting a long shadow; Germany 30-yr, Spain 15-yr
and US 5-yr to be sold
- Germany Ifo: PMIs and broader array of anecdotal evidence suggests
upside risks relative to forecasts
- UK GDP: seen unrevised, focus on Index of Services & Business Investment
- US FOMC minutes: discussion on inflation, labour market slack and balance
sheet reduction to be key points of interest
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
After two rather quieter days in terms of scheduled data and events, there is rather more on the menu today. Once the benign Australian Wages and China Property Prices have been digested, the focus turns to the detailed UK Q4 GDP release which is accompanied by the latest Index of Services and provisional Q4 Business Investment, while elsewhere there are Germany's Ifo Business Climate, Eurozone final CPI, US Existing Home Sales, Canadian Retail Sales along with Mexican and Colombian Q4 GDP. On the policy front there are the latest FOMC minutes and more Fed speak, along with a speech by BoE's Cunliffe, there is the technical committee meeting in OPEC/NOPEC production compliance, while it is Budget day in South Africa. On the govt bond auction front, an as ever tiny EUR 1.0 Bln of 30-yr Bunds, and US 2-yr FRN and new US 5-yr Treasury will be sold, while Spain sells a new 2033 via syndication. Forecasts for the German Ifo survey assume a marginal setback in current conditions and expectations, though this would still leave indices close to their recent highs, and if yesterday's PMIs are a guide (which is not always the case), then the risks look to be heavily skewed to the upside, continuing to underline solid underlying momentum in the economy.
** U.K. - Q4 GDP, Index of Services, Business Investment **
- GDP is expected to be unrevised at the better than originally expected 0.6% q/q 2.2% y/y, notwithstanding the much stronger Manufacturing data and the weaker Retail Sales, with the latter expected to have been offset by continued strength in consumer spending on services (particularly bars and restaurants). The more detailed report is also forecast to show a strong contribution from Trade, with Exports seen up 2.0% q/q against a rise of 0.6% q/q Imports, though it should be stressed that this is not attributable to the GBP's fall post-Brexit, given that the vast bulk of orders related to durable shipments would have been made prior to the referendum. Perhaps the most interesting item will be Business Investment, which is seen flat q/q after a 0.4% q/q in Q3, though the latter is as ever subject to what are often quite extensive revisions.
** U.S.A. - FOMC minutes / Jan Existing Home Sales **
- Existing Home Sales are forecast to have rebounded 1.1% to a SAAR pace of 5.55 Mln, after slipping 2.9% m/m in December, which would continue to signal a robust pace of sales. As ever, a close eye will need to be kept on inventories, which sunk to a very low 3.6 months of supply in December, having been at 4.7 months in July. The Jan 31/Feb 1 FOMC meeting having been a non-press conference meeting imparts a rather higher order of interest in today's minutes, notwithstanding Yellen's testimony in the intervening period. Of specific note will be the discussion on inflation, given that the statement suggested that the firmer trend was not 'transient', and indeed how much slack there was left in the labour market. But most attention will clearly be directed at the discussion on the Fed's balance sheet, both in procedural terms as well as on potential timing. It will also be interesting to see how they viewed the balance of risks in terms to the policy outlook from fiscal measures, beyond the dull observation that there is a lot of uncertainty of what will or will not be enacted by the Trump regime and Congress.
from Marc Ostwald
