Moneylender
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Good morning, US closed today so the brokers are in charge!!
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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we dont mind
Dentalfloss
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20700 hit...as you said brokers in charge
Dentalfloss
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- Quiet start to the week as Japan Trade data digested, awaiting UK CBI
Industrial Trends survey, Euro Group meeting on Greece, with US on
holiday for Presidents' Day
- UK CBI Industrial Trends: focus on domestic/export order breakdown,
selling price trend
- Week Ahead: surveys, UK/German GDP details, US Home Sales, Fed/RBA
minutes and central bank speakers in focus, politics still the
overarching influence
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
With the US on holiday for President's day, markets will see subdued activity and volumes, with the statistical schedule offering little more than the overnight slightly weaker than expected Japan Trade readings ahead of the UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey. Politically, the week kicks of with a Euro Group Finance Minister's meeting which will apparently not reach a final decision on the current Greek bail-out review, with conflicting signals coming from Athens, Brussels and Berlin. That Mr Schaeuble was forced to deny reports that he threatened Greece with 'Grexit' perhaps offers some hope that an agreement may be a little closer, particularly given Friday's talk of a modest EUR 5 Bln IMF participation in the latest bail-out.
Updated: The Week Ahead - Bullet point highlights: 20 to 24 February 2017
As has been more than evident this week, politics continue to rule the roost, and economic data /surveys and central banks are subordinated to political developments, above all in the US. The US President's day holiday will make for a slow start to the week, with Germany probably more focussed on Carnival to start the week, while the statistical schedule is relatively modest, central banks speakers are quite plentiful, as are corporate earnings.
- Economics: Surveys (PMIs, Ifo inter alia) dominate the schedule globally, the US data run is dominated by housing data, Japan kicks off the week with Trade data, detailed Q4 GDP data is on offer from the UK and Germany, Australia has Q4 CapEx and Construction Output, Canada sees CPI and Retail Sales. While consensus forecasts for the PMIs are the usual array of marginal changes relative to prior month, this would still underscore the point that activity in G7/Eurozone countries is overall better than it has been for many years; indeed the 'usual' USA Q1 GDP disappointment of recent years looks rather unlikely, even if the late payment of tax rebates may serve to depress consumer spending in February somewhat. But as the WSJ story on the Trump administration looking to alter the calculation for the US Trade balance, with a shift on counting exports which would make the U.S. trade gap appear larger than it has previously, perhaps the key point is that the lies and propaganda that were once the hallmarks of Nazis, Soviets and an array of despots the world over, appears to be the lingua franca of the body politic in many western countries.
- Central Banks: Markets displayed a great deal of indifference to the less accommodative tone from Yellen and Co last week, but there will still be some interest in the minutes of the Jan 31/Feb 1 FOMC meeting, and there a goodly number of Fed speakers in the coming week. It is worth noting that having risen as high as 42% in the middle of last week, the market is now discounting a 34% chance of a March rate hike, underlining continued scepticism around the Fed's narrative. Carney and RBA's Lowe both testify to their respective parliaments, and the RBA will publish the minutes of its February meeting. The Bank of Korea is expected to keep rates on hold at 1.25%, as is BanColombia at 7.50%, the latter likely to have been disappointed by the uptick in core CPI tO 5.26% y/y in January.
- Politics: French opinion polls will continue to be watched very closely, as will the attempts by the far-left to unite behind single candidate, M Macron is also expected to outline his economic and budget strategy. If Trump is to live up to his promises, then this week should see some details on his 'phenomenal' tax cuts, with some risk of disappointment given his hyperbole; Dodd-Frank rollback news may in the end prove to be far more significant for financial markets, given the potential for these to free up bank balance sheets in a very significant manner. The UK's House of Lords will also conduct a 2-day debate on the Brexit Article 50 Bill, with March 9/10 apparently being pencilled in as the official Article 50 trigger date.
- Bond auctions: the US sells $88 Bln of 2, 5 & 7-yr coupons and $13 Bln of 2-yr FRNs, the UK sells £2.0 Bln 10-yr, while Germany sells a tiny EUR 1.0 Bln of 30-yr and Italy offers 2-yr Zeros and inflation-linked BTPs. DCM chatter suggests there could be syndicated sales for Austria, France, Spain and/or Slovakia,
- Energy: JODI oil production data for GCC countries is set to be published ahead of an OPEC/NOPEC technical meeting on production cut 'compliance', while the EIA publishes its monthly Energy Review.
- Corporate Earnings: Eminently M&A chatter / speculation is on the rise. It will also be a reasonably busy week for earnings, particularly for big 4 major UK banks, who will all report. Otherwise Home Depot and Wal-Mart feature on Tuesday; Airbus, Bayer and Tesla on Wednesday; AXA, Glencore and Telefonica on Thursday; BASF and RBC on Friday.
from Marc Ostwald
Industrial Trends survey, Euro Group meeting on Greece, with US on
holiday for Presidents' Day
- UK CBI Industrial Trends: focus on domestic/export order breakdown,
selling price trend
- Week Ahead: surveys, UK/German GDP details, US Home Sales, Fed/RBA
minutes and central bank speakers in focus, politics still the
overarching influence
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
With the US on holiday for President's day, markets will see subdued activity and volumes, with the statistical schedule offering little more than the overnight slightly weaker than expected Japan Trade readings ahead of the UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey. Politically, the week kicks of with a Euro Group Finance Minister's meeting which will apparently not reach a final decision on the current Greek bail-out review, with conflicting signals coming from Athens, Brussels and Berlin. That Mr Schaeuble was forced to deny reports that he threatened Greece with 'Grexit' perhaps offers some hope that an agreement may be a little closer, particularly given Friday's talk of a modest EUR 5 Bln IMF participation in the latest bail-out.
Updated: The Week Ahead - Bullet point highlights: 20 to 24 February 2017
As has been more than evident this week, politics continue to rule the roost, and economic data /surveys and central banks are subordinated to political developments, above all in the US. The US President's day holiday will make for a slow start to the week, with Germany probably more focussed on Carnival to start the week, while the statistical schedule is relatively modest, central banks speakers are quite plentiful, as are corporate earnings.
- Economics: Surveys (PMIs, Ifo inter alia) dominate the schedule globally, the US data run is dominated by housing data, Japan kicks off the week with Trade data, detailed Q4 GDP data is on offer from the UK and Germany, Australia has Q4 CapEx and Construction Output, Canada sees CPI and Retail Sales. While consensus forecasts for the PMIs are the usual array of marginal changes relative to prior month, this would still underscore the point that activity in G7/Eurozone countries is overall better than it has been for many years; indeed the 'usual' USA Q1 GDP disappointment of recent years looks rather unlikely, even if the late payment of tax rebates may serve to depress consumer spending in February somewhat. But as the WSJ story on the Trump administration looking to alter the calculation for the US Trade balance, with a shift on counting exports which would make the U.S. trade gap appear larger than it has previously, perhaps the key point is that the lies and propaganda that were once the hallmarks of Nazis, Soviets and an array of despots the world over, appears to be the lingua franca of the body politic in many western countries.
- Central Banks: Markets displayed a great deal of indifference to the less accommodative tone from Yellen and Co last week, but there will still be some interest in the minutes of the Jan 31/Feb 1 FOMC meeting, and there a goodly number of Fed speakers in the coming week. It is worth noting that having risen as high as 42% in the middle of last week, the market is now discounting a 34% chance of a March rate hike, underlining continued scepticism around the Fed's narrative. Carney and RBA's Lowe both testify to their respective parliaments, and the RBA will publish the minutes of its February meeting. The Bank of Korea is expected to keep rates on hold at 1.25%, as is BanColombia at 7.50%, the latter likely to have been disappointed by the uptick in core CPI tO 5.26% y/y in January.
- Politics: French opinion polls will continue to be watched very closely, as will the attempts by the far-left to unite behind single candidate, M Macron is also expected to outline his economic and budget strategy. If Trump is to live up to his promises, then this week should see some details on his 'phenomenal' tax cuts, with some risk of disappointment given his hyperbole; Dodd-Frank rollback news may in the end prove to be far more significant for financial markets, given the potential for these to free up bank balance sheets in a very significant manner. The UK's House of Lords will also conduct a 2-day debate on the Brexit Article 50 Bill, with March 9/10 apparently being pencilled in as the official Article 50 trigger date.
- Bond auctions: the US sells $88 Bln of 2, 5 & 7-yr coupons and $13 Bln of 2-yr FRNs, the UK sells £2.0 Bln 10-yr, while Germany sells a tiny EUR 1.0 Bln of 30-yr and Italy offers 2-yr Zeros and inflation-linked BTPs. DCM chatter suggests there could be syndicated sales for Austria, France, Spain and/or Slovakia,
- Energy: JODI oil production data for GCC countries is set to be published ahead of an OPEC/NOPEC technical meeting on production cut 'compliance', while the EIA publishes its monthly Energy Review.
- Corporate Earnings: Eminently M&A chatter / speculation is on the rise. It will also be a reasonably busy week for earnings, particularly for big 4 major UK banks, who will all report. Otherwise Home Depot and Wal-Mart feature on Tuesday; Airbus, Bayer and Tesla on Wednesday; AXA, Glencore and Telefonica on Thursday; BASF and RBC on Friday.
from Marc Ostwald
G'day Folks,
Been away taking bin lids on holiday etc...half term..so no trading last week.
Ftse... sp 7300 but could see drift to 7270-80. Rez 7320.
WTI rez 54 sp 5350. could see move to sp 5350...keep an eye on the USD.
Cable minor rez 1.2450, sp 1.24... think we will get a move to 1.25 rez..which is a dog to get through.
Nothing too inspiring but if the levels play out reasonable pips to be had, lets see.
Been away taking bin lids on holiday etc...half term..so no trading last week.
Ftse... sp 7300 but could see drift to 7270-80. Rez 7320.
WTI rez 54 sp 5350. could see move to sp 5350...keep an eye on the USD.
Cable minor rez 1.2450, sp 1.24... think we will get a move to 1.25 rez..which is a dog to get through.
Nothing too inspiring but if the levels play out reasonable pips to be had, lets see.
Dentalfloss
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eurusd
could go either way
could go either way
Dentalfloss
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used to put mine in a prison camp...far easier
Can't afford boarding school :cheesy:... although ended up in one myself. I have to say the food (and some of the conditions...we had regular beatings for "infringement's"), was probably better in jail...lol.
Dentalfloss
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no boarding for mine
the school did run day camps in the holidays
Dentalfloss
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Cable since 31st Jan
gonna pop
gonna pop
Dentalfloss
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cable lookin bullish...wants to break the trend at 1.2516 area
we could pump and then pullback
seems to me to be a decent swing long
but...
we are in a pump or dump zone
so be ready at both ends
we could pump and then pullback
seems to me to be a decent swing long
but...
we are in a pump or dump zone
so be ready at both ends
Agreed.... 1.25 will take some getting through... so looking for short term pullback...maybe 1.2460-70.
ps previous post - your mention of "prison camp" unleashed a subliminal ref to "boarding school"...maybe I need therapy lol.
Dentalfloss
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gbpjpy
Dentalfloss
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gbpjpy testing our rez area now...if it can establish support in that area/on pullback ..or just below
then a decent swing long could b e on the cards
then a decent swing long could b e on the cards
Dentalfloss
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dow
rally overnight to 20.7K
pullback to our 20635 rez area...that was supp
bad bounce off that supp and bears in
rally overnight to 20.7K
pullback to our 20635 rez area...that was supp
bad bounce off that supp and bears in
Dentalfloss
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gbpjpy...could be a bumpy ride thru that rez...that is what we want
Dentalfloss
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FTSE
currently in horizontal rez area
currently in horizontal rez area
Dentalfloss
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ftse
some detail
some detail
Dentalfloss
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7600 horizontal count target if it breaks
bulls will be watching any pullback...
bulls will be watching any pullback...
Dentalfloss
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mornin
