Trading with point and figure

dow
1 min data over last 24 hours

qzjkfs.gif
 
there is no sign of any bearish movement as yet..
the most the bears might get is a retrace to aqua internal
a wodge of supp between 20550-20600
 
- Modest schedule of data features US Housing Starts, Philly Fed & Jobless
Claims, 'account' of ECB meeting and G20 foreign ministers meeting;
France, Spain and US bond auctions

- US Housing Starts: seen little changed and signalling ongoing strength,
unseasonably warm weather implies some upside risks

- Run of capital flow data from US, Japan and China demands some attention

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

A much quieter day in terms of scheduled data and events, which is perhaps apt in so far as markets' indifference to anything other than Trump edicts and tweets continues to be overwhelming, with a clear shift from "it's the economy / central banks, stupid" to "it's politics...". Per se the G20 Foreign Ministers meeting may be the 'event of the day', even if this appears improbable. On the macro front, the ECB's January policy meeting minutes will be interesting, in so far as the December minutes highlighted rather more vociferous dissent to the policy decision, thus the question is whether this persisted. Statistically, there are the mixed overnight Australia labour market data (the dip in the Unemployment Rate masking a sharp drop in full-time Employment) to digest ahead of US Housing Starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing survey and weekly jobless claims. Spain, France (both various maturities) and the USA (new 30-yr TIPS) feature on the govt bond auction schedule. US Housing Starts follow on from a very firm, but slightly lower NAHB Housing Market Index (seasonally quite typical), and are expected to be little changed at a high 1.23 Mln SAAR pace, with a similar expected pace of Building Permits indicating a solid outlook, and perhaps with some upside risks on Starts given the unseasonably warm weather.

However the run of flow data from the US, Japan and China overnight may offer the most interesting talking point. The US TIC Portfolio data saw foreigners as net sellers of US Treasuries for a ninth month, though in contrast to recent months, China was a modest net buyer ($9.1 Bln vs. Nov $-65.4 Bln), while Japan was a net seller ($-17.8 Bln). The latter echoes MOF data over recent weeks, which in the latest week saw net selling of foreign bonds for the seventh week of the last nine, and is in many ways surprising, given the much higher level of long dated real yields on JGBs, e.g. 30-yr at 0.9% nominal and 0.6% real. The China Outbound Direct Investment slide of 35.7% y/y was certainly exaggerated due to base effects, but again is hardly surprising in light of the measures that the Chinese authorities have undertaken to curb capital outflows since December, and encouragingly showed a much better structure to ODI, with outflows related to manufacturing and technology ODI investment still rising, while property and more speculative investment flows dropped.

========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================

********************
** TODAY'S EVENTS **
********************

Japan ----- BoJ's Kuroda speaks at annual DICJ-IADI international
conference
Indonesia ----- Bank Indonesia rate decision - no change 4.75%
Egypt ----- Central bank rate decision - no change 14.75%
Germany ----- G20 foreign ministers start 2-day meeting
Norway ----- Norges Bank's Olsen annual address
Eurozone 12:30 ECB 'account' of January policy meeting
U.S.A. 16:00 NY Fed Q4 Household Debt and Credit Report

# HOLIDAYS: Lithuania - Restitution of Independence


- Govt Bond Auctions / Buybacks
New Zealand 01:05 NZD 200 Mln 2.75% 2025 Govt
Thailand 03:00 THB 30 Bn 2019 (#BOT192A) Bank of Thailand
Taiwan 04:30 TWD 25 Bln 2037 (#106-03) Govt
Japan 05:00 Enhanced Liquidity JGB auction
Spain 09:30 EUR 4.0-5.0 Bln 2022, 2027 & 2028 Bonos
France 09:50 EUR 6.0-7.0 Bln total 0% 2020 & 0% 2022 OATs
Hungary 10:00 Regular Govt Bond auction
Romania 10:00 RON 300 Mln 3.25% 2024 Govt
Poland 10:30 PLN 4.0-7.0 Bln 2019, 2022, 2026, 2027 & 2047 Govts
France 10:50 EUR 1.5-2.5 Bln I-L 0.10% 2028 OATi
Sweden 11:00 SEK 250 Mln I-L 0.125% 2027 Govt
Brazil 14:00 Size t.b.c. 2023 & 2027 NTN-F
U.S.A. 18:00 USD 7.0 Bln 2047 TIPS

- Corporate Earnings:
Capgemini (Yr 5.31) • Liberty Global (Q4 0.58) • Nestle (Yr 3.41) • Perrigo Co (Q4 1.62) • Schneider Electric (Yr 3.66) • Shire (Yr 4.30) • Vale (Q4) // Alexion Pharmaceuticals (Q4 $1.25) • Cabela's (Q4 $1.22) • Charter Communications (Q4 $1.07) • Dish Network (Q4 $0.66) • GNC Holdings (Q4 $0.36) • Laboratory Corp of America (Q4 $2.14) • MGM Resorts International (Q4 $0.20) • Tempur Sealy International (Q4 $1.12) • Zoetis (Q4 $0.44

from Marc Ostwald
 
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