Trading with point and figure

Must be contagious.. also man down... nursing a whisky Mac currently.. cough medicine...cough cough.. this weather.. need to get down under again. lol.

Not many people ill down here by the South Coast. It's soooo cold I don't think viruses are able to survive. I don't usually feel the cold and rain's no matter but must confess I felt it today.

It's public transport and mixed crowded areas to avoid I reckon.
 
Not many people ill down here by the South Coast. It's soooo cold I don't think viruses are able to survive. I don't usually feel the cold and rain's no matter but must confess I felt it today.

It's public transport and mixed crowded areas to avoid I reckon.

My kids are living petri dishes...manage to catch everything from school and pass it to me.

Late start today. Ftse... very dull...range bound between 7150 - 80. Cable seems to be unwinding (slowly) to settle at 1.25 sp area. WTI Oil bouncing around 5350 - 54. All in all fairly uninspiring....like the UK weather.
 
FTSE

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a) Q4 GDP - key aspects:

- solid Personal Consumption 2.5% as expected,
- Final Domestic Sales to Domestic Buyers 2.5% follows 2.1% in Q3
- Housing Investment bounces back 10.5% after 2 soft qtrs.
- Business Investment in equipment 1.3% q/q first rise for some time (fits with solid core Durable Goods Orders - see below),

other large contributing factors,
Inventories add 1.0 ppt to Q4 GDP,
Net Exports deduct a whopping 1.7 ppts, more than wiping out 0.9 ppt contribution to Q3 GDP

Eminently some folk may talk of USD drag on exports, even if it is in fact the first quarter since Q4 2015 that Trade deducted from GDP.
Also need to remember that Q4 GDP 1.9% SAAR is at the Fed's trend potential rate, even if some may call it weak
As ever, revisions will probably tell a different story

b) Durable Goods - the headline weakness (-0.4% m/m vs. exp +2.5%) was all down to aircraft as is often the case,
- core orders: ex-Transport 0.5% /m/m as expected, but Nov revised up to 1.0% from 0.6%;
- Non-defence Cap Goods ex-Aircraft was a 'big beat' 0.8% m/m vs. exp. 0.2%, Nov revised up to 1.5% m/m from 0.9%
- Inventories flat m/m, while Shipments were very solid at 1.4% m/m

all in all appears to show that improved Manufacturing and Services surveys have not just been sentiment driven, but backed up by actual orders
from Marc Ostwald
 
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