Dentalfloss
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Dow should be in mega res
We 20150 area marked some weeks ago
Let's see
We 20150 area marked some weeks ago
Let's see
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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From memory...dax in Chronics res area
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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- Digesting busy run of China policy and economic news, Japan flow data,
looking to UK Q4 GDP, US Goods Trade, Claims, Services PMI and New Home
Sales; tech behemoths dominate corporate earnings run; Italy & US debt
sales and a smattering of ECB speak
- China: clear signals that post LNY policy will be less expansive;
crusade against Shadow Banking could prompt very sharp moves in many
asset classes, risks look very high in respect of commodity futures
- UK Q4 GDP: solid gain expected, led by personal consumption, but overall
very unbalanced
- US Goods Trade Balance: marginally narrower deficit seen, but firmer
USD may result in wider deficit
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Once again, the key question remains whether the array of statistics and scheduled events can prompt anything more than a passing blink from markets. The flood of statistics and policy related news from China ahead of the one week Lunar New Year holidays (starting tomorrow) demands attention, given the new year will bring considerable policy changes, while also indicating a considerably less accommodative / expansive policy stance, and the potential for considerable volatility in China's domestic asset markets, which will send ripples, if not shockwaves through global markets. Perhaps the most acute risk is that heavily leveraged positions on China's various Commodity exchanges, which have been a key driver of the industrial metals rally, perhaps more than any Trump infrastructure plan optimism, could be drastically unwound if the authorities assault on the domestic shadow banking sector moves to curb speculation on these exchanges - the recent Bitcoin tumble stands out as but one recent example. Statistically the day belongs to the UK, with the preliminary Q4 GDP reading and Index Of Services, and the US, where the advance Goods Trade Balance accompanies weekly jobless claims, Services PMI and New Home Sales, while tonight brings Japanese CPI. The Euro group Finance Ministers meeting had been expected to bring the latest Greek bail-out review to a conclusion, but this remains very elusive with the Euro group now suggesting sometime in February; there will be more ECB speakers, but they are unlikely to signal any notable shifts on the outlook for the economy or policy. Perhaps rather more promising in the potentially 'market moving' category will be another rash of corporate earnings, which in the US sees tech behemoths Alphabet (aka Google), Intel and Microsoft reporting as well as the likes of Ford, Starbucks and Stanley Black & Decker. On the government bond supply front, Italy sells 2-yr Zero and 15-yr Inflation-Linked BTP ahead of the US 7-yr sale (after a poor 5-yr sale on Wednesday).
** U.K. - Q4 GDP / Index of Services **
- As has been well documented, the UK economy has performed far better than the fecklessly dramatic prognostications of an instant recession if the UK voted to leave the EU. Today's report will as ever be short on details, but is expected to see an overall very solid 0.5% q/q 2.1% y/y, but the details will likely underscore a very lopsided profile, with growth led by Services and (debt fuelled) Personal Consumption. While last week's Retail Sales were weaker than forecast, the fact remains that the 3mth/3mth pace of sales at 1.1% q/q was very robust, the question then is what (if any) contribution there will be from Manufacturing and Construction. With inflation pressures clearly building, anything stronger than expected would certainly add to perceptions that the next move from the BoE (which meets next week) will be a rate hike, even if the MPC looks very likely to drag its heels.
** U.S.A. - Goods Trade Balance, Jobless Claims, Services PMI **
- Ahead of tomorrow's advance Q4 GDP reading, today's Goods Trade Balance could well prompt some last minute adjustment of forecasts, if it turns out wide of the projected marginal narrowing to $-65.1 Bln, which would confirm that Trade is likely to have been a considerable drag on GDP during the quarter. The latter can be seen as an unsurprising reactive correction to the very strong contribution from Net Exports to Q3 GDP. That said, the strengthening of the USD during the latter half of Q4 will also serve to boost the value of imports and decrease export values, which implies the risks are for a wider than forecast deficit. Weekly Jobless Claims continue to signal a very tight labour market, with last week's 234K reading underlining that that the low readings over the Christmas/New Year period were not just seasonal noise, a rise to 247K is expected. The prov. Markit Services PMI is forecast to eke out a modest rise to 54.4 from December's 53.9, thus falling just short of the October high at 54.8, but overall confirming a solid level of activity in the sector.
from Marc Ostwald
looking to UK Q4 GDP, US Goods Trade, Claims, Services PMI and New Home
Sales; tech behemoths dominate corporate earnings run; Italy & US debt
sales and a smattering of ECB speak
- China: clear signals that post LNY policy will be less expansive;
crusade against Shadow Banking could prompt very sharp moves in many
asset classes, risks look very high in respect of commodity futures
- UK Q4 GDP: solid gain expected, led by personal consumption, but overall
very unbalanced
- US Goods Trade Balance: marginally narrower deficit seen, but firmer
USD may result in wider deficit
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Once again, the key question remains whether the array of statistics and scheduled events can prompt anything more than a passing blink from markets. The flood of statistics and policy related news from China ahead of the one week Lunar New Year holidays (starting tomorrow) demands attention, given the new year will bring considerable policy changes, while also indicating a considerably less accommodative / expansive policy stance, and the potential for considerable volatility in China's domestic asset markets, which will send ripples, if not shockwaves through global markets. Perhaps the most acute risk is that heavily leveraged positions on China's various Commodity exchanges, which have been a key driver of the industrial metals rally, perhaps more than any Trump infrastructure plan optimism, could be drastically unwound if the authorities assault on the domestic shadow banking sector moves to curb speculation on these exchanges - the recent Bitcoin tumble stands out as but one recent example. Statistically the day belongs to the UK, with the preliminary Q4 GDP reading and Index Of Services, and the US, where the advance Goods Trade Balance accompanies weekly jobless claims, Services PMI and New Home Sales, while tonight brings Japanese CPI. The Euro group Finance Ministers meeting had been expected to bring the latest Greek bail-out review to a conclusion, but this remains very elusive with the Euro group now suggesting sometime in February; there will be more ECB speakers, but they are unlikely to signal any notable shifts on the outlook for the economy or policy. Perhaps rather more promising in the potentially 'market moving' category will be another rash of corporate earnings, which in the US sees tech behemoths Alphabet (aka Google), Intel and Microsoft reporting as well as the likes of Ford, Starbucks and Stanley Black & Decker. On the government bond supply front, Italy sells 2-yr Zero and 15-yr Inflation-Linked BTP ahead of the US 7-yr sale (after a poor 5-yr sale on Wednesday).
** U.K. - Q4 GDP / Index of Services **
- As has been well documented, the UK economy has performed far better than the fecklessly dramatic prognostications of an instant recession if the UK voted to leave the EU. Today's report will as ever be short on details, but is expected to see an overall very solid 0.5% q/q 2.1% y/y, but the details will likely underscore a very lopsided profile, with growth led by Services and (debt fuelled) Personal Consumption. While last week's Retail Sales were weaker than forecast, the fact remains that the 3mth/3mth pace of sales at 1.1% q/q was very robust, the question then is what (if any) contribution there will be from Manufacturing and Construction. With inflation pressures clearly building, anything stronger than expected would certainly add to perceptions that the next move from the BoE (which meets next week) will be a rate hike, even if the MPC looks very likely to drag its heels.
** U.S.A. - Goods Trade Balance, Jobless Claims, Services PMI **
- Ahead of tomorrow's advance Q4 GDP reading, today's Goods Trade Balance could well prompt some last minute adjustment of forecasts, if it turns out wide of the projected marginal narrowing to $-65.1 Bln, which would confirm that Trade is likely to have been a considerable drag on GDP during the quarter. The latter can be seen as an unsurprising reactive correction to the very strong contribution from Net Exports to Q3 GDP. That said, the strengthening of the USD during the latter half of Q4 will also serve to boost the value of imports and decrease export values, which implies the risks are for a wider than forecast deficit. Weekly Jobless Claims continue to signal a very tight labour market, with last week's 234K reading underlining that that the low readings over the Christmas/New Year period were not just seasonal noise, a rise to 247K is expected. The prov. Markit Services PMI is forecast to eke out a modest rise to 54.4 from December's 53.9, thus falling just short of the October high at 54.8, but overall confirming a solid level of activity in the sector.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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cable at top of channel on 60min bars
I like the squawk on financial juice...makes the news releases more "exciting"...if that is possible.
Also alerts you to upcoming releases and news (for the lazy/busy etc).
Gives a patina of a trading room even if my humble set up is somewhat lacking!
Good find moneylender....thanks again!
Also alerts you to upcoming releases and news (for the lazy/busy etc).
Gives a patina of a trading room even if my humble set up is somewhat lacking!
Good find moneylender....thanks again!
Moneylender
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Morning all.
Been using it for years swissy, great for the unexpected news as well and the odd rumour!
Been using it for years swissy, great for the unexpected news as well and the odd rumour!
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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goin back to bed.....gotta stinking cold
catch yu all later
catch yu all later
Atilla
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Oooohhhh, hope you feel better soon.
I stepped out a little earlier and the cold is just dry icy cold cold. Wind chill by the sea front takes it down couple of notches too.
Only for the hardened thick skinned with lots of blubber type folks.
Makes hairs grow on ones ears
Moneylender
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I am still in bed!
Dentalfloss
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dow in rez
was prev supp
20.1K
was prev supp
20.1K
Moneylender
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20111
Dentalfloss
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worked really well
Dentalfloss
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our 20070 rez from yesterday working as supp today
Dentalfloss
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worked well this morning
ditto Chronics dax rez area
Moneylender
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Dentalfloss
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range is tight on dow...gonna pop
