Moneylender
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Morning all, taken a small short this morning @19945. Still thinking they might spike it to 20k but I will take that risk!
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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- Digesting Japan Trade, Oz CPI, Korea & Taiwan GDP, awaiting run of
Europe business surveys and Italy Constitutional Court ruling; Central
bank speakers plentiful at Bundesbank digital finance conference;
more corporate earnings, German 30-yr and US 5-yr auctions
- Germany Ifo: expected to edge higher, paced by manufacturing and trade,
as government raises 2017 export and import forecasts
- UK CBI Industrial Trends: Orders seen rising again, but price pressures
expected to hit 6-yr high, while Business Optimism seen sluggish
- Japan: export pick-up all the more impressive in volume terms, but falling
imports underline sluggish domestic demand
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Antipodean inflation data, overnight Japan Trade, Asian Q4 GDP readings and European business surveys provide the highlights of today's statistical schedule, while the G20 conference on on digitizing finance hosted by the Bundesbank has Weidmann, Schaeuble, Carney and SNB's Jordan on its list of speakers; the subject matter suggests greater relevance for regulatory policy than monetary. The delayed Italian Constitutional Court ruling on electoral reform is also due at lunchtime. Corporate earnings reports remain plentiful, with the US featuring Boeing and United Technologies, while govt bond supply sees Germany offer a tiny EUR 1.0 Bln of 30-yr, while the US sells 2-yr FRN and 5-yr T-Note. Having digested the largely 'in line' Australian, the question is whether any of the business surveys in Europe can generate any reaction from markets, with the US FHFA House Price index likely to be ignored, as it generally is. Per se, markets are likely to be left in thrall to Trump policy moves and Brexit related headlines. For all the furore (aka political windbagging) around yesterday's UK Constitutional Court ruling, the only real question is how "tight" the wording of the Act of Parliament (to trigger Article 50) will be. The trick to stopping opponents tagging on conditions would be to make the Act very short, say as little as one paragraph, which would then make it very difficult to change as the rules state that "amendments must be ruled to be within the scope of the original text". It should be emphasized that 'no one won anything' with the ruling, it is a simple principle that Parliament has to be consulted, if a proposed statute implies a change to the UK's basic law - Article 50 clearly fits that principle 100%.
** Asia - Japan Trade / Korea, Taiwan Q4 GDP **
- The first stronger than expected rise in Japan exports in 15 months, paced primarily by a boost to exports to Asia, is to be welcomed, above all for the fact that it confirms a relatively broad based pick-up in trade in Asia. The pick-up in exports was indeed better in volume terms at 8.4% y/y than the 5.4% y/y rise in the headline value measure. That said, the fall in Imports (despite the weak JPY and higher oil prices) underlines the sluggishness of the domestic economy. Eminently Trump's very protectionist rhetoric gives plenty of reason to question the durability of this upturn, but equally the fact that the other TPP signatories appear to be keen to quickly fashion a new agreement offers reason for optimism. Korea's marginally stronger than expected, though still very sluggish Q4 GDP saw a stronger than expected pick up in CapEx on buildings offset very weak Personal Consumption, and to a degree offer hope of an upturn in H1 2017, given the drag both from the presidential scandal and the woes of Samsung. However heavily indebted consumers will face headwinds if US and by extension local rates were to rise significantly. Taiwan's Q4 GDP missed forecasts at 2.58% y/y, and while the manufacturing sector (above all semiconductor) showed some welcome strength, personal consumption and govt spending remained weak, and the recovery from the late 2015 recession appears to be losing traction, and of all the East Asian economies, Taiwan has perhaps the most to lose from increased trade tensions with the USA.
** Europe - January business surveys **
- After a mixed set of PMIs, it will be interesting to see if the far more reliable Ifo survey paints a similar picture. The headline index is seen inching up a little further to 111.3 from 111.0 led by Current Conditions (consensus 117.0 vs. 116.6), with yesterday's upgrades to the government's forecasts for 2017 Exports to 2.8% y/y vs. prior 2.1%, and Imports to 3.8% y/y from 3.0% implying Manufacturing and Trade will be the primary drivers. The risks in terms of forecasts for 2017 German GDP continue to be skewed to the upside, with Q4 2016 currently estimated to have been 0.5% q/q, and that pace is seen sustained into Q1, which would be above Germany's perceived underlying potential rate (1.0-1.5% in y/y terms). As for the UK CBI Industrial Trends survey, this is expected to see the Orders measure extend its rise to 2 from December's 0 (a 20-mth high). It is also seen confirming that price pressures continue to rise, with the expected 30 (vs. Dec 26) being the highest since April 2011. However Business Optimism is projected to be unchanged at -8, which excluding the emotionally charged outlier of -47.0 in Q3, would be in the range seen since Q4 2015, and still well below the run of positive readings from Q2 2013 to Q3 2015.
from Marc Ostwald
Europe business surveys and Italy Constitutional Court ruling; Central
bank speakers plentiful at Bundesbank digital finance conference;
more corporate earnings, German 30-yr and US 5-yr auctions
- Germany Ifo: expected to edge higher, paced by manufacturing and trade,
as government raises 2017 export and import forecasts
- UK CBI Industrial Trends: Orders seen rising again, but price pressures
expected to hit 6-yr high, while Business Optimism seen sluggish
- Japan: export pick-up all the more impressive in volume terms, but falling
imports underline sluggish domestic demand
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Antipodean inflation data, overnight Japan Trade, Asian Q4 GDP readings and European business surveys provide the highlights of today's statistical schedule, while the G20 conference on on digitizing finance hosted by the Bundesbank has Weidmann, Schaeuble, Carney and SNB's Jordan on its list of speakers; the subject matter suggests greater relevance for regulatory policy than monetary. The delayed Italian Constitutional Court ruling on electoral reform is also due at lunchtime. Corporate earnings reports remain plentiful, with the US featuring Boeing and United Technologies, while govt bond supply sees Germany offer a tiny EUR 1.0 Bln of 30-yr, while the US sells 2-yr FRN and 5-yr T-Note. Having digested the largely 'in line' Australian, the question is whether any of the business surveys in Europe can generate any reaction from markets, with the US FHFA House Price index likely to be ignored, as it generally is. Per se, markets are likely to be left in thrall to Trump policy moves and Brexit related headlines. For all the furore (aka political windbagging) around yesterday's UK Constitutional Court ruling, the only real question is how "tight" the wording of the Act of Parliament (to trigger Article 50) will be. The trick to stopping opponents tagging on conditions would be to make the Act very short, say as little as one paragraph, which would then make it very difficult to change as the rules state that "amendments must be ruled to be within the scope of the original text". It should be emphasized that 'no one won anything' with the ruling, it is a simple principle that Parliament has to be consulted, if a proposed statute implies a change to the UK's basic law - Article 50 clearly fits that principle 100%.
** Asia - Japan Trade / Korea, Taiwan Q4 GDP **
- The first stronger than expected rise in Japan exports in 15 months, paced primarily by a boost to exports to Asia, is to be welcomed, above all for the fact that it confirms a relatively broad based pick-up in trade in Asia. The pick-up in exports was indeed better in volume terms at 8.4% y/y than the 5.4% y/y rise in the headline value measure. That said, the fall in Imports (despite the weak JPY and higher oil prices) underlines the sluggishness of the domestic economy. Eminently Trump's very protectionist rhetoric gives plenty of reason to question the durability of this upturn, but equally the fact that the other TPP signatories appear to be keen to quickly fashion a new agreement offers reason for optimism. Korea's marginally stronger than expected, though still very sluggish Q4 GDP saw a stronger than expected pick up in CapEx on buildings offset very weak Personal Consumption, and to a degree offer hope of an upturn in H1 2017, given the drag both from the presidential scandal and the woes of Samsung. However heavily indebted consumers will face headwinds if US and by extension local rates were to rise significantly. Taiwan's Q4 GDP missed forecasts at 2.58% y/y, and while the manufacturing sector (above all semiconductor) showed some welcome strength, personal consumption and govt spending remained weak, and the recovery from the late 2015 recession appears to be losing traction, and of all the East Asian economies, Taiwan has perhaps the most to lose from increased trade tensions with the USA.
** Europe - January business surveys **
- After a mixed set of PMIs, it will be interesting to see if the far more reliable Ifo survey paints a similar picture. The headline index is seen inching up a little further to 111.3 from 111.0 led by Current Conditions (consensus 117.0 vs. 116.6), with yesterday's upgrades to the government's forecasts for 2017 Exports to 2.8% y/y vs. prior 2.1%, and Imports to 3.8% y/y from 3.0% implying Manufacturing and Trade will be the primary drivers. The risks in terms of forecasts for 2017 German GDP continue to be skewed to the upside, with Q4 2016 currently estimated to have been 0.5% q/q, and that pace is seen sustained into Q1, which would be above Germany's perceived underlying potential rate (1.0-1.5% in y/y terms). As for the UK CBI Industrial Trends survey, this is expected to see the Orders measure extend its rise to 2 from December's 0 (a 20-mth high). It is also seen confirming that price pressures continue to rise, with the expected 30 (vs. Dec 26) being the highest since April 2011. However Business Optimism is projected to be unchanged at -8, which excluding the emotionally charged outlier of -47.0 in Q3, would be in the range seen since Q4 2015, and still well below the run of positive readings from Q2 2013 to Q3 2015.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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dax into our 11.7K rez
Dentalfloss
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20K is the rez ...imho
its pumpin for no reason..??
its pumpin for no reason..??
Dentalfloss
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not our problem...we will take the signals
Morning folks,
Ftse seems to have come alive this morning... at rez 7200, sp 7170.
Keeping a close eye on cable....also at rez 1.253...see if push upward can sustain to next rez 1.255. Otherwise back to sp 1.25 - 1.247.
Oil WTI - in sp zone 5270. Been resilient so far...think another move to 5350 possible, might go to 5250 sp though for buyers to step in.
Ftse seems to have come alive this morning... at rez 7200, sp 7170.
Keeping a close eye on cable....also at rez 1.253...see if push upward can sustain to next rez 1.255. Otherwise back to sp 1.25 - 1.247.
Oil WTI - in sp zone 5270. Been resilient so far...think another move to 5350 possible, might go to 5250 sp though for buyers to step in.
Dentalfloss
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dow in rez
Dentalfloss
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dow over last 48 hours
Dentalfloss
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2 box vertical count...we are in the target zone...that does not mean it will tank
just a guide
just a guide
Dentalfloss
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cable pumpin nicely
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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and dump
excellent
Dentalfloss
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1.2600/round area
and dump
luvin it
and dump
luvin it
Dentalfloss
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dax needs to be supported at 11.7K
dow supp 19945
dow supp 19945
Dentalfloss
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cable supp at 1.2540 area
Dentalfloss
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oil
pump or dump 52.75
pump or dump 52.75
Moneylender
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your welcome, I have a small problem with the audio in "Chrome", but it works fine in Firefox.
Moneylender
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I thought they may well go for 20k!!
Still have a short on from 9945, but its small enough, have another order @ 20015
