Trading with point and figure

DOW updated.....still a dog

5we9h.gif
 
we got the downmove...now in onsolidation
the consolidation is slightly bullish / green trendline
BUT....
we dont know if we get another downmove or bulls take it
 
Morning chaps. Been lurking the thread for a while so thought I'd say hello.

Recently started using P/F and I'm finding it a very useful tool. Will post if I feel I can contribute anything but you guys seem to be doing very well as it is!
 
- UK and Italy court rulings in focus: PMIs top data schedule, UK PSNB,
US Existing Home Sales also due; tricky Turkey rate decision; UK seen
lunching new 40-yr Gilt, US to sell 2-yr; Corporate Earnings plentiful

- UK Supreme Court ruling: expected to confirm High Court judgement,
details on process of parliamentary trigger critical

- Italy Constitutional ruling: wide range of outcomes possible, the more
convoluted, the more likely no general election until 2018

- PMIs: seen little changed, thus sustaining recent gains

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Politics will likely provide the main talking point for the day, via way of the UK Supreme Court ruling on triggering Article 50 and the Italy's Constitutional Court ruling on Italicum electoral reforms. That said, the data schedule has 'flash' January PMI readings for Japan, Eurozone and the US, UK PSNB, US Existing Home Sales and French Unemployment ahead of tonight's South Korea Q4 prov. GDP and Japanese Trade Balance. Corporate earnings are again plentiful, with the US likely to be focussed on 3M, Du Pont, Johnson & Johnson, Travelers & Verizon, while govt bond supply sees US 2-yr and Dutch 5-yr via auction, with the UK expected to launch the new 2057 conventional Gilt via syndication. In respect of the latter, a large book should not be assumed to indicate strong demand for UK govt paper, but rather (as ever) reflect a 'liquidity' event allowing funds to transact high volume trades, which secondary markets no longer facilitate, at least not at 'sensible prices'. On the monetary policy side of the equation, rates are expected to be unchanged in Hungary and Nigeria, but hiked in Turkey. The TCMB is seen succumbing to the inevitable by hiking its Repo rate +50 bps to 8.50% and the O/N Lending Rate +75 Bps to 9.25%. Whether this will in reality help to stem the TRY's slide is dubious, given a) it would be a rather timid move when seen in the context of the size of TRY's drop, b) real official rates (as measured vs. the Repo rate) would remain flat to negative, i.e. way below the 4.0-6.0% on offer in the likes of Brazil and Russia, and c) and Turkey's domestic and international political position remains dreadful. Last but not least, and obviously subject to considerable change as Obama's policy plans materialize, the US CBO (Congressional Budget Office) publishes its annual Budget and Economic Outlook, which over the past 20 years has generally been far more reliable than any other official, Wall Street or supranational set of forecasts.

** U.K. / Italy - Court rulings **
- The UK Supreme Court is expected to confirm the High Court's ruling that Article 50 will have to be triggered with a vote in parliament. While there is talk that the judges may be split (some have suggested 7-4), it is to be hoped that PM May and the Brexit lobby do not try to suggest that this represents a degree of vindication for the government's stance. The devil will however be in the detail, for example will a single vote be sufficient, or will the court demand a complete Act of Parliament, with the latter requiring both the House of Commons and House of Lords to approve it 'several' times, and likely to have a number of codicils on how the exit negotiations will be conducted. As for Italy, the constitutional court will rule on which parts of the electoral law passed in 2016 are constitutionally legitimate, which will in turn decide the modus operandi for the next election. The 50 seat bonus for general election winners is expected to be struck down, though this is far from assured. Indeed the ruling could be anything from very simple, to complex, convoluted and prescriptive. If it is complex, then the chance of a general election being held before 2018 would be very small, the more so given the array of problems that Italy currently is faced with, from the series of natural disasters, through challenges to this year's budget by the EU Commission, to the array of banking sector woes.

** G7 - January 'flash' PMIs **
- As is very often the case, forecasts for today's run of PMIs assume little or no change vs. December readings, which as with other surveys around the world appeared to benefit from a post US election boost to confidence, as well as continuing signs that domestic demand in the Euro area is recovering, and at a slightly faster pace than many had assumed (even if far from 'punching any lights out'). There will be particular interest in the French survey, both from the aspect of the upcoming election, as well as the fact that December's Manufacturing PMI at 53.5 was the highest in more than 3 years, and perhaps even more remarkable given that it was at and mostly below 50.0 for the first nine months of 2016.


from Marc Ostwald
 
we are in rez now.....but no big shakes...it will only take out that internal and not the main bearish resistance line
1 month of data


2yobwi0.gif
 
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