Moneylender
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Morning all.
Cable at 1.21, what's all the pannick about?
Cable at 1.21, what's all the pannick about?
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Good morning!
No pannick (sic) on this callsign matey! Only looking for oppo's - 1.21 gap fill...probably go to hover around 1.202 again. Short term short, imho, small stake wide stop! Long term I'm more bullish. Let's see how it plays out. PM May is just getting the bad news out, therefore cable could go to 1.18ish but I am bullish at those levels. Don't forget the USD has a vote as well - could see it weaken outside any brexit guff.
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
all well..??
all well..??
Dentalfloss
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what time is Theresa..??
Atilla
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Beware chaps, opening gaps never bode well. That's all.
1.20 is holding for now but considering we were 1.27 just before Christmas and subject to ongoing negotiations or lack of them I fear there is more down side.
Will not be able to watch the speel but hoping you guys do well.
1.20 is holding for now but considering we were 1.27 just before Christmas and subject to ongoing negotiations or lack of them I fear there is more down side.
Will not be able to watch the speel but hoping you guys do well.
Atilla
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Dentalfloss
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- Politics likely to override statistical agenda, with Xi, May and Fed
speakers due; UK inflation run, German ZEW survey and US NY Fed
Manufacturing accompany more US earnings and German 2-yr sale
- UK CPI/RPI: modest acceleration expected, transport the big wild card,
with petrol prices set to boost, but airfares a potential drag; clothing
and household goods may boost
- ZEW: ECB QE extension, economic optimism and incoming data expected to
provide further boost
- May Brexit speech: likely to be long on principles and cheerleading,
short on details
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Politics is likely to have the upper hand over statistics today, with the latter featuring the gamut of UK inflation data, Germany's ZEW survey and the NY Fed Manufacturing survey. But PM May's speech on Brexit negotiations and China President Xi's speech at the Davos WEF are likely to be the headline generating events, with a smattering of Fed (Dudley & Yellen) and ECB speak thrown in for good measure, along with the ECB's quarterly lending survey. The ZEW survey is forecast to see further gains in both Expectations (18.4 vs Dec 13.8) and Current Conditions (65.0 vs. 63.5), as a buoyant equity market, an accommodative ECB and some optimism on the economic outlook underpin investor sentiment. The US NY Fed Manufacturing is seen remaining at a level indicating a solid pace of sector activity at 8.5 vs. Dec 9.0, even if the NY Fed region is rather unrepresentative of the sector as whole; however survey optimism really needs to start to showing up in official statistics, if the Trump bump optimism is to be sustained.
** U.K. - December Inflation data / May Brexit speech **
- Following on from Mr Carney's speech yesterday, which underlined the MPC's current neutral stance on policy (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2017/speech954.pdf) and ahead of Mrs May, today's UK CPI (0.3% m/m) and RPI (0.4% m/m) are both expected to edge higher in y/y terms to 1.4% (from 1.2%) and 2.3% (from 2.2%), though it is PPI Input (15.8% y/y vs prior 12.9%) and Output (2.9% vs. prior 2.3%), where mounting price pressures are most likely to be evident. In the CPI/RPI breakdown, the element with the highest outlier potential will almost certainly be transport, above all petrol prices and airfares, with significant scope for sizeable base effects in the latter, which it will be recalled saw an outsized 46% m/m rise in Dec 2015, while petrol prices fell 2.9% m/m. Indications from the BRC's Shop Price data suggest Food prices will be line with seasonal trends, though clothing and Furniture may well exercise some upward pressure in y/y terms, as Black Friday and Cyber Monday type promotional discounts temporarily unwind. The PPI data will obviously underline the extent of forward inflation pressures, which the latest bout of GBP weakness will only serve to exacerbate (if it is sustained). It is debatable whether PM May's speech will offer any genuinely fresh insights into the details of forthcoming Brexit negotiations and accompanying processes, though it will stress that the UK will seek a fresh trade treaty with the EU, which is not encumbered by attempts to cherry pick elements of the current arrangements, as has already been well flagged, and is eminently sensible. The fundamental problematic remains that such a treaty will take many years to negotiate and ratify, and this per se underlines the need for some transitional arrangements to be put in place, which may prove to be far more difficult to achieve. The latter even more so, if Mr Trump and his lieutenants stick with the confrontational line with Germany and the EU as indicated by his weekend comments. It should be remembered that one of the key hurdles to Britain's attempts to join the Common Market in the 1950s & 1960s was a deep seated concern that Britain's relationship with the US was much too close, and that this would result in the nascent EU being 'sold out' to the USA. As such the Trump line may well result in the EU-27 'closing ranks' in a fashion even further than has already been evident in their initial approach to the Brexit decision. Equally fanciful talk about trade agreements with Australasian and Asian countries misses the point that outside of the US and China, the most important trading partners for any country are its closest neighbours. As but one example, the value of Britain's trade with Ireland is more than the sum total of its trade with the BRIC countries, which also serves a reminder that the collapse of the Stormont govt (with assembly elections due on March 2) may prove to be a far more significant hurdle for getting the Brexit process under way than anything else in the short-term.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
********************
** TODAY'S EVENTS **
********************
Switzerland ----- Davos World Economic Forum, speakers include China
President Xi Jinping & US Secretary of State Kerry
(ends January 20)
Bulgaria ----- PM Borissov, Finance Minister Goranov and Central Bank
Governor Radevto an annual meeting with leading
businesses to discuss political, fiscal and economic
challenges in 2017
France 08:00 European Parliament elects new president - 1st ballot
Eurozone 09:00 ECB quarterly Bank Lending survey
U.K. 11:45 PM May due to makes speech outlining further details
of her approach to Brexit
Austria 11:00 ECB's Nowotny takes part in panel discussion on
"Euro reforms in turbulent times" at CEE Forum 2017
U.S.A. 13:45 NY Fed's Dudley addresses the "Retail's BIG Show 2017"
the evolution of consumer behaviour over the last decade
U.S.A. 22:30 Yellen host a webcast townhall meeting with educators
from across the country
U.S.A. 23:00 SF Fed's Williams speaks at Sacramento Business
Review Economic Forecast event
U.S.A. ----- EIA drilling productivity report for December
- Govt Bond Auctions / Buybacks
Japan 03:45 JPY 1.1 Trln Mar-2037 JGB
South Africa 07:00 ZAR 750 Mln 8.875% 2035 & ZAR 850 Mln 9.0% 2040 Govts
Myanmar 08:00 Regular Govt Bond auction
Indonesia 09:00 Size t.b.c. May-2027 & 2036 Govts
Germany 10:30 EUR 5.0 Bln 0.0% 2018 Schatz
Macedonia 12:00 Regular Govt Bond auction
- Corporate Earnings:
# USA: CSX Corp (Q4 $0.50) • Morgan Stanley (Q4 $0.65) • United Continental (Q4 $1.75) • UnitedHealth Group (Q4 $2.07) //// Activia Properties • Adtran • Advanced Petrochemicals • Al Ahli Bank • Aurobindo Pharma • Bank of The Ozarks • Boubyan Bank • Florida Ice & Farm Co • Formosa Plastics • Fulton Financial • Hancock Holding • Havells India • IHS Markit • Interactive Brokers • Linear Technology • LSR Group • Morgan Stanley • National Shipping Co • New Oriental Education • Nippon Prologis REIT • Pakistan Petroleum • Pinnacle Financial Partners • Renasant • SABIC • Saudi Cement • Synovus Financial • Washington Federal
..........................................................................
******************
** TODAY'S DATA **
****************** MEDIAN
Australia 00:30 Nov Housing Finance 0.9% (m)
00:30 Dec New Motor Vehicle Sales
Singapore 00:30 Dec Non-oil Domestic Exports -5.8% (m) 6.4%
Japan 04:30 Nov final Industrial Production 1.5% (m) 4.6%
04:30 Nov Capacity Utilization
EU 27 07:00 Dec EU27 New Car Registrations
France 07:45 Nov Budget Balance y.t.d.
Italy 09:00 Nov Trade Balance
U.K. 09:30 Dec CPI 0.3% (m) 1.4%
09:30 Dec Core CPI 1.4%
09:30 Dec RPI 0.4% (m) 2.3%
09:30 Dec RPIX 2.5%
09:30 Dec PPI Input 2.4% (m) 15.5%
09:30 Dec PPI Output 0.4% (m) 2.9%
09:30 Dec Core PPI Output 0.2% (m) 2.2%
09:30 Nov ONS House Price Index 6.1%
Slovenia 09:30 Nov Unemployment Rate
South Africa 09:30 Nov Mining Production -0.3% (m) -0.9%
Brazil 10:00 Jan FGV Inflation IGP-10 0.91% (m)
Germany 10:00 Jan ZEW Expectations 18.4
10:00 Jan ZEW Current Situation 65.0
Ireland 11:00 Nov Trade Balance
Russia 13:00 Q4 prov. Current Account $7.35 Bln
U.S.A. 13:30 Jan NY Fed Empire Manufacturing 8.5
Colombia ----- Dec Consumer Confidence
Australia 23:30 Jan Westpac Consumer Confidence
********************* OVERNIGHT HEADLINES ********************
Australia - Nov Housing Finance up 0.9% m/m as expected,
- Nov Investment Lending 4.9% m/m
- Dec New Vehicle Sales 0.3% m/m (vs. Nov -0.7% m/m)
- 2016 New Vehicle Sales at record 1.18 Mln
Singapore - Dec Exports jump 1.0% m/m 9.4% y/y, top expected 6.4% y/y
- Singapore exports jump on solid China sales, Trump factor a worry
- Dec NODX +1.0 pct m/m sadj vs forecast -5.8 pct
- Dec NODX to Europe -4.8 pct; NODX to China +33.5 pct
- Shipments to US -16.4 pct
China/WEF - Chinese president to defend globalisation in Davos
- Xi is first Chinese president to appear at WEF
- Appearance comes amid rising tensions with Trump team
- China economy worries ease but big risks remain
China - China to target around 6.5 pct growth in 2017 - sources
- China could tolerate growth slightly below 6.5% in 2017
- Economy likely grew about 6.7 pct in 2016, vs 6.5-7 pct target
- Leaders keen to jump-start reforms to contain debt risks
- Stability watchword ahead of leadership transition in autumn
- China to stick with 3 pct inflation target in 2017 - sources
China/FX - Scholar says free-floating yuan is nothing to fear - paper
China/USA - U.S. complaint against China's aluminium sector risks back-firing
U.K. - PM May: Britain will not seek "half in, half out" EU deal
- PM May to say Britain seeks clean break from EU - Reuters News
- PM's office says May to set out 12 priorities for Brexit talks
- To seek "new and equal partnership", not follow model of other
countries
- Little detail but press reports suggest leaving single market
- Also regaining control of borders - FT cites plans for EU work
permit scheme
- FT: http://on.ft.com/2jS2QWm // Telegraph: http://bit.ly/2iFwhgm
EU - EU Parliament speaker vote could strengthen eurosceptics
Indonesia - Govt may issue new tax rules for mineral exports next week
- official
N.Zealand - Q3 NZIER Business Confidence rises to two-year high: 28 vs. Q3 26
USA/World - Trump calls corporate tax border adjustment "too complicated"
U.S.A. - Wilbur Ross, Trump's Commerce pick, offshored 2,700 jobs since
2004
------------- TOP FIXED INCOME / FX / COMMODITY HEADLINES ----------------
** FOREX **
> Hard Brexit fears hit pound ahead of May speech
> Sterling at 3-month low, braces for May's Brexit speech
> Australia, NZ dlrs hover near 2-mth highs on sterling
> China's yuan firms, academics urge Beijing to loosen grip
> Scholar says free-floating yuan is nothing to fear - paper
> S.Korea stocks rise on Samsung Elec rebound; won edges down
> South Africa's bourse climbs to 4-month high, rand retreats
> Asia FX slip on caution before Fed speakers, Trump inauguration
> Sri Lankan rupee marginally higher on banks' dollar sales
> Canadian dollar weakens as oil dips, greenback rebounds
> Mexico peso weakens on Trump auto tariff threat
** FIXED INCOME **
> JGBs steady after solid 20-yr sale; 20-yr auction cover 3.54x
> Asian credits set to tighten on risk averse lead-in
> Asian pipeline stays busy ahead of Trump inauguration
> EdF marketing 4-part 10/12/15/20yr Samurai
> Aflac marketing 10s at L+69bp, 5s/7s dropped
> Canada Goc: Curve mildly flatter in very quiet session
> ECB bids for Germany through -0.40%, but not aggressively
> Mozambique skips towards default
> IFR Capital Markets Week Ahead - UniCredit, Keane IPO, Argentina
** COMMODITIES & ENERGY **
> Oil prices mixed on Saudi commitment to cut output, investor scepticism
> Gold prices rise as Brexit worries stoke safe-haven demand
> Dalian iron ore pulls back from 3-yr high as steel steadies
> Copper eases for second day, demand outlook limits losses
> Soybeans at 7-wk high as heavy rains hit Argentina's crop
> Robusta climbs to 4-1/2 year high on Brazil crop concerns
> Rio Tinto payout hopes brighten on solid outlook for 2017
> China steel, iron ore: A new year, a new bubble
> U.S. complaint against China's aluminium sector risks back-firing
> Atlas Copco to split group, company veteran Rahmstrom named new CEO
> Indonesia may issue new tax rules for mineral exports next week -official
> Brazil's Vale loads first ore from new S11D mine
> Chinalco expects to be profitable in 2017 by slashing debt, costs -Xinhua
> China's Hubei province to shut all coal mines within 2 yrs -Xinhua
> Poland's JSW expects coking coal prices to stabilise
> OPEC sees market stability in 2017, Venezuela aims for $70 price
> Saudi pledges adherence to oil cut, confident others will
> China's crude oil output will fall 7 pct by 2020 - govt
> China halts over 100 coal-fired power projects - Caixin
> Noble Energy to buy Clayton Williams Energy for $2.7 bln
> China's Hubei province to shut all coal mines within 2 yrs -Xinhua
> Oil prices stall as hedge funds stop adding to longs
> Indonesia's Pertamina aims 10 pct rise in 2017 unsubsidised diesel sales
> Fuel sales in Brazil fall for 2nd consecutive year in 2016
> Pipeline in Canada needs replacing after 'mischief' - police
> Aker BP chief aims to make more oil acquisitions -CEO
> Bolivian, Argentina state-run oil companies sign exploration agreement
> China cancels ethanol imports as tax hike threatens trade
> Trucker protest continues in Brazil's top grain state
> Dry winds in Ivory Coast raise concerns for cocoa crops
> Key Argentina soy areas flooded, more rains seen starting Friday
> China corn output to drop 4.1 pct in 2016/2017 - ag ministry
> Russian wheat prices up slightly on stronger rouble
> China's Sinochem chief dismisses ChemChina merger reports as "rumour"
> Malaysian 2017 palm oil output forecast to rise 12 pct y/y -MPOB
> Brazil to boost new crop financing by about 20 pct -Temer
> Burkina Faso 2016/17 cotton crop seen rising to 750,000 tonnes -minister
===================== ** CORPORATE / EQUITY HEADLINES ** =================
** TOP STORIES ** Asian Companies / Indices **
..........................................................................
> Nikkei touches lowest level since early December
> Asia stocks and pound weak, brace for May's speech on Brexit stance
> Risk appetite subdued ahead of British PM May's speech
> South Korea prosecutor seeks arrest of Samsung chief for bribery
> Baidu names former Microsoft exec as COO in A.I push
> Rio Tinto payout hopes brighten on solid outlook for 2017
> Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway wins reinsurance licence in Malaysia
> GM's Cadillac sees double digit sales growth in China this year
> Tokyo office boom fades with more space, fewer workers
> India's Reliance sees sharp rise in operating profit in next financial yr
> MNCs need sharper edge in China talent wars
> Syngenta CEO expects regulatory approval for ChemChina deal soon -CNBC
> Government to name underwriters for further Japan Post share sale
> Dreyfus, Amaggi sell stake in Brazil JV to Japan's Zen-Noh
> Thailand's CP All and three funds compete for Polish retailer Zabka - sources
..........................................................................
** TOP STORIES ** Americas Companies / Indices **
..........................................................................
> TSX dips, pressured by financials and auto stocks
> General Motors to announce $1 bln in U.S. investment
> Bankrupt U.S. retailer American Apparel starts layoffs
> Noble Energy to buy Clayton Williams Energy for $2.7 bln
> Baidu names former Microsoft exec as COO in A.I push
> Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway wins reinsurance licence in Malaysia
> VW charges in US breach German constitution - defendant's lawyer
> Facebook moves to head off tougher regulation in Germany
> Ford S.Africa recalls Kugas after cars burst into flames
> After Vatican controversy, McDonald's helps feed homeless in Rome
> Canada's Trudeau faces ethics probe over Bahamas trip
> Bankrupt U.S. retailer American Apparel starts layoffs
> Canada home resales rise in December -CREA
> Canadian dollar weakens as oil dips, greenback rebounds
> British Columbia kicks off relief plan for home buyers
> Senior Canada military officer suspended from duty, no reason given
> Canada's Portag3 Ventures invests in Street Contxt
> Pipeline in Canada needs replacing after 'mischief' - police
> Temer says unemployment, not graft probe, biggest worry
> At least 5 dead in shooting at Mexico's BPM music festival
> Brazil police control new uprising at prison where 26 were killed
> Trump 'won't be worse than Obama,' says Venezuela's president
> BMW will open Mexican factory in 2019 despite Trump -executive
> Ten killed in drug-related violence in Mexican state of Guerrero
> Brazil issues first license for sale of a cannabis-based drug
> Peru economy grew 3.6 pct year-on-year in Nov -govt
> Bolivian, Argentina state-run oil companies sign exploration agreement
> Brazil car rental Movida's IPO could fetch $368 mln
> Costa Rica sues Nicaragua over alleged territory violation
........................................................................
from Marc Ostwald
speakers due; UK inflation run, German ZEW survey and US NY Fed
Manufacturing accompany more US earnings and German 2-yr sale
- UK CPI/RPI: modest acceleration expected, transport the big wild card,
with petrol prices set to boost, but airfares a potential drag; clothing
and household goods may boost
- ZEW: ECB QE extension, economic optimism and incoming data expected to
provide further boost
- May Brexit speech: likely to be long on principles and cheerleading,
short on details
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Politics is likely to have the upper hand over statistics today, with the latter featuring the gamut of UK inflation data, Germany's ZEW survey and the NY Fed Manufacturing survey. But PM May's speech on Brexit negotiations and China President Xi's speech at the Davos WEF are likely to be the headline generating events, with a smattering of Fed (Dudley & Yellen) and ECB speak thrown in for good measure, along with the ECB's quarterly lending survey. The ZEW survey is forecast to see further gains in both Expectations (18.4 vs Dec 13.8) and Current Conditions (65.0 vs. 63.5), as a buoyant equity market, an accommodative ECB and some optimism on the economic outlook underpin investor sentiment. The US NY Fed Manufacturing is seen remaining at a level indicating a solid pace of sector activity at 8.5 vs. Dec 9.0, even if the NY Fed region is rather unrepresentative of the sector as whole; however survey optimism really needs to start to showing up in official statistics, if the Trump bump optimism is to be sustained.
** U.K. - December Inflation data / May Brexit speech **
- Following on from Mr Carney's speech yesterday, which underlined the MPC's current neutral stance on policy (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2017/speech954.pdf) and ahead of Mrs May, today's UK CPI (0.3% m/m) and RPI (0.4% m/m) are both expected to edge higher in y/y terms to 1.4% (from 1.2%) and 2.3% (from 2.2%), though it is PPI Input (15.8% y/y vs prior 12.9%) and Output (2.9% vs. prior 2.3%), where mounting price pressures are most likely to be evident. In the CPI/RPI breakdown, the element with the highest outlier potential will almost certainly be transport, above all petrol prices and airfares, with significant scope for sizeable base effects in the latter, which it will be recalled saw an outsized 46% m/m rise in Dec 2015, while petrol prices fell 2.9% m/m. Indications from the BRC's Shop Price data suggest Food prices will be line with seasonal trends, though clothing and Furniture may well exercise some upward pressure in y/y terms, as Black Friday and Cyber Monday type promotional discounts temporarily unwind. The PPI data will obviously underline the extent of forward inflation pressures, which the latest bout of GBP weakness will only serve to exacerbate (if it is sustained). It is debatable whether PM May's speech will offer any genuinely fresh insights into the details of forthcoming Brexit negotiations and accompanying processes, though it will stress that the UK will seek a fresh trade treaty with the EU, which is not encumbered by attempts to cherry pick elements of the current arrangements, as has already been well flagged, and is eminently sensible. The fundamental problematic remains that such a treaty will take many years to negotiate and ratify, and this per se underlines the need for some transitional arrangements to be put in place, which may prove to be far more difficult to achieve. The latter even more so, if Mr Trump and his lieutenants stick with the confrontational line with Germany and the EU as indicated by his weekend comments. It should be remembered that one of the key hurdles to Britain's attempts to join the Common Market in the 1950s & 1960s was a deep seated concern that Britain's relationship with the US was much too close, and that this would result in the nascent EU being 'sold out' to the USA. As such the Trump line may well result in the EU-27 'closing ranks' in a fashion even further than has already been evident in their initial approach to the Brexit decision. Equally fanciful talk about trade agreements with Australasian and Asian countries misses the point that outside of the US and China, the most important trading partners for any country are its closest neighbours. As but one example, the value of Britain's trade with Ireland is more than the sum total of its trade with the BRIC countries, which also serves a reminder that the collapse of the Stormont govt (with assembly elections due on March 2) may prove to be a far more significant hurdle for getting the Brexit process under way than anything else in the short-term.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
********************
** TODAY'S EVENTS **
********************
Switzerland ----- Davos World Economic Forum, speakers include China
President Xi Jinping & US Secretary of State Kerry
(ends January 20)
Bulgaria ----- PM Borissov, Finance Minister Goranov and Central Bank
Governor Radevto an annual meeting with leading
businesses to discuss political, fiscal and economic
challenges in 2017
France 08:00 European Parliament elects new president - 1st ballot
Eurozone 09:00 ECB quarterly Bank Lending survey
U.K. 11:45 PM May due to makes speech outlining further details
of her approach to Brexit
Austria 11:00 ECB's Nowotny takes part in panel discussion on
"Euro reforms in turbulent times" at CEE Forum 2017
U.S.A. 13:45 NY Fed's Dudley addresses the "Retail's BIG Show 2017"
the evolution of consumer behaviour over the last decade
U.S.A. 22:30 Yellen host a webcast townhall meeting with educators
from across the country
U.S.A. 23:00 SF Fed's Williams speaks at Sacramento Business
Review Economic Forecast event
U.S.A. ----- EIA drilling productivity report for December
- Govt Bond Auctions / Buybacks
Japan 03:45 JPY 1.1 Trln Mar-2037 JGB
South Africa 07:00 ZAR 750 Mln 8.875% 2035 & ZAR 850 Mln 9.0% 2040 Govts
Myanmar 08:00 Regular Govt Bond auction
Indonesia 09:00 Size t.b.c. May-2027 & 2036 Govts
Germany 10:30 EUR 5.0 Bln 0.0% 2018 Schatz
Macedonia 12:00 Regular Govt Bond auction
- Corporate Earnings:
# USA: CSX Corp (Q4 $0.50) • Morgan Stanley (Q4 $0.65) • United Continental (Q4 $1.75) • UnitedHealth Group (Q4 $2.07) //// Activia Properties • Adtran • Advanced Petrochemicals • Al Ahli Bank • Aurobindo Pharma • Bank of The Ozarks • Boubyan Bank • Florida Ice & Farm Co • Formosa Plastics • Fulton Financial • Hancock Holding • Havells India • IHS Markit • Interactive Brokers • Linear Technology • LSR Group • Morgan Stanley • National Shipping Co • New Oriental Education • Nippon Prologis REIT • Pakistan Petroleum • Pinnacle Financial Partners • Renasant • SABIC • Saudi Cement • Synovus Financial • Washington Federal
..........................................................................
******************
** TODAY'S DATA **
****************** MEDIAN
Australia 00:30 Nov Housing Finance 0.9% (m)
00:30 Dec New Motor Vehicle Sales
Singapore 00:30 Dec Non-oil Domestic Exports -5.8% (m) 6.4%
Japan 04:30 Nov final Industrial Production 1.5% (m) 4.6%
04:30 Nov Capacity Utilization
EU 27 07:00 Dec EU27 New Car Registrations
France 07:45 Nov Budget Balance y.t.d.
Italy 09:00 Nov Trade Balance
U.K. 09:30 Dec CPI 0.3% (m) 1.4%
09:30 Dec Core CPI 1.4%
09:30 Dec RPI 0.4% (m) 2.3%
09:30 Dec RPIX 2.5%
09:30 Dec PPI Input 2.4% (m) 15.5%
09:30 Dec PPI Output 0.4% (m) 2.9%
09:30 Dec Core PPI Output 0.2% (m) 2.2%
09:30 Nov ONS House Price Index 6.1%
Slovenia 09:30 Nov Unemployment Rate
South Africa 09:30 Nov Mining Production -0.3% (m) -0.9%
Brazil 10:00 Jan FGV Inflation IGP-10 0.91% (m)
Germany 10:00 Jan ZEW Expectations 18.4
10:00 Jan ZEW Current Situation 65.0
Ireland 11:00 Nov Trade Balance
Russia 13:00 Q4 prov. Current Account $7.35 Bln
U.S.A. 13:30 Jan NY Fed Empire Manufacturing 8.5
Colombia ----- Dec Consumer Confidence
Australia 23:30 Jan Westpac Consumer Confidence
********************* OVERNIGHT HEADLINES ********************
Australia - Nov Housing Finance up 0.9% m/m as expected,
- Nov Investment Lending 4.9% m/m
- Dec New Vehicle Sales 0.3% m/m (vs. Nov -0.7% m/m)
- 2016 New Vehicle Sales at record 1.18 Mln
Singapore - Dec Exports jump 1.0% m/m 9.4% y/y, top expected 6.4% y/y
- Singapore exports jump on solid China sales, Trump factor a worry
- Dec NODX +1.0 pct m/m sadj vs forecast -5.8 pct
- Dec NODX to Europe -4.8 pct; NODX to China +33.5 pct
- Shipments to US -16.4 pct
China/WEF - Chinese president to defend globalisation in Davos
- Xi is first Chinese president to appear at WEF
- Appearance comes amid rising tensions with Trump team
- China economy worries ease but big risks remain
China - China to target around 6.5 pct growth in 2017 - sources
- China could tolerate growth slightly below 6.5% in 2017
- Economy likely grew about 6.7 pct in 2016, vs 6.5-7 pct target
- Leaders keen to jump-start reforms to contain debt risks
- Stability watchword ahead of leadership transition in autumn
- China to stick with 3 pct inflation target in 2017 - sources
China/FX - Scholar says free-floating yuan is nothing to fear - paper
China/USA - U.S. complaint against China's aluminium sector risks back-firing
U.K. - PM May: Britain will not seek "half in, half out" EU deal
- PM May to say Britain seeks clean break from EU - Reuters News
- PM's office says May to set out 12 priorities for Brexit talks
- To seek "new and equal partnership", not follow model of other
countries
- Little detail but press reports suggest leaving single market
- Also regaining control of borders - FT cites plans for EU work
permit scheme
- FT: http://on.ft.com/2jS2QWm // Telegraph: http://bit.ly/2iFwhgm
EU - EU Parliament speaker vote could strengthen eurosceptics
Indonesia - Govt may issue new tax rules for mineral exports next week
- official
N.Zealand - Q3 NZIER Business Confidence rises to two-year high: 28 vs. Q3 26
USA/World - Trump calls corporate tax border adjustment "too complicated"
U.S.A. - Wilbur Ross, Trump's Commerce pick, offshored 2,700 jobs since
2004
------------- TOP FIXED INCOME / FX / COMMODITY HEADLINES ----------------
** FOREX **
> Hard Brexit fears hit pound ahead of May speech
> Sterling at 3-month low, braces for May's Brexit speech
> Australia, NZ dlrs hover near 2-mth highs on sterling
> China's yuan firms, academics urge Beijing to loosen grip
> Scholar says free-floating yuan is nothing to fear - paper
> S.Korea stocks rise on Samsung Elec rebound; won edges down
> South Africa's bourse climbs to 4-month high, rand retreats
> Asia FX slip on caution before Fed speakers, Trump inauguration
> Sri Lankan rupee marginally higher on banks' dollar sales
> Canadian dollar weakens as oil dips, greenback rebounds
> Mexico peso weakens on Trump auto tariff threat
** FIXED INCOME **
> JGBs steady after solid 20-yr sale; 20-yr auction cover 3.54x
> Asian credits set to tighten on risk averse lead-in
> Asian pipeline stays busy ahead of Trump inauguration
> EdF marketing 4-part 10/12/15/20yr Samurai
> Aflac marketing 10s at L+69bp, 5s/7s dropped
> Canada Goc: Curve mildly flatter in very quiet session
> ECB bids for Germany through -0.40%, but not aggressively
> Mozambique skips towards default
> IFR Capital Markets Week Ahead - UniCredit, Keane IPO, Argentina
** COMMODITIES & ENERGY **
> Oil prices mixed on Saudi commitment to cut output, investor scepticism
> Gold prices rise as Brexit worries stoke safe-haven demand
> Dalian iron ore pulls back from 3-yr high as steel steadies
> Copper eases for second day, demand outlook limits losses
> Soybeans at 7-wk high as heavy rains hit Argentina's crop
> Robusta climbs to 4-1/2 year high on Brazil crop concerns
> Rio Tinto payout hopes brighten on solid outlook for 2017
> China steel, iron ore: A new year, a new bubble
> U.S. complaint against China's aluminium sector risks back-firing
> Atlas Copco to split group, company veteran Rahmstrom named new CEO
> Indonesia may issue new tax rules for mineral exports next week -official
> Brazil's Vale loads first ore from new S11D mine
> Chinalco expects to be profitable in 2017 by slashing debt, costs -Xinhua
> China's Hubei province to shut all coal mines within 2 yrs -Xinhua
> Poland's JSW expects coking coal prices to stabilise
> OPEC sees market stability in 2017, Venezuela aims for $70 price
> Saudi pledges adherence to oil cut, confident others will
> China's crude oil output will fall 7 pct by 2020 - govt
> China halts over 100 coal-fired power projects - Caixin
> Noble Energy to buy Clayton Williams Energy for $2.7 bln
> China's Hubei province to shut all coal mines within 2 yrs -Xinhua
> Oil prices stall as hedge funds stop adding to longs
> Indonesia's Pertamina aims 10 pct rise in 2017 unsubsidised diesel sales
> Fuel sales in Brazil fall for 2nd consecutive year in 2016
> Pipeline in Canada needs replacing after 'mischief' - police
> Aker BP chief aims to make more oil acquisitions -CEO
> Bolivian, Argentina state-run oil companies sign exploration agreement
> China cancels ethanol imports as tax hike threatens trade
> Trucker protest continues in Brazil's top grain state
> Dry winds in Ivory Coast raise concerns for cocoa crops
> Key Argentina soy areas flooded, more rains seen starting Friday
> China corn output to drop 4.1 pct in 2016/2017 - ag ministry
> Russian wheat prices up slightly on stronger rouble
> China's Sinochem chief dismisses ChemChina merger reports as "rumour"
> Malaysian 2017 palm oil output forecast to rise 12 pct y/y -MPOB
> Brazil to boost new crop financing by about 20 pct -Temer
> Burkina Faso 2016/17 cotton crop seen rising to 750,000 tonnes -minister
===================== ** CORPORATE / EQUITY HEADLINES ** =================
** TOP STORIES ** Asian Companies / Indices **
..........................................................................
> Nikkei touches lowest level since early December
> Asia stocks and pound weak, brace for May's speech on Brexit stance
> Risk appetite subdued ahead of British PM May's speech
> South Korea prosecutor seeks arrest of Samsung chief for bribery
> Baidu names former Microsoft exec as COO in A.I push
> Rio Tinto payout hopes brighten on solid outlook for 2017
> Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway wins reinsurance licence in Malaysia
> GM's Cadillac sees double digit sales growth in China this year
> Tokyo office boom fades with more space, fewer workers
> India's Reliance sees sharp rise in operating profit in next financial yr
> MNCs need sharper edge in China talent wars
> Syngenta CEO expects regulatory approval for ChemChina deal soon -CNBC
> Government to name underwriters for further Japan Post share sale
> Dreyfus, Amaggi sell stake in Brazil JV to Japan's Zen-Noh
> Thailand's CP All and three funds compete for Polish retailer Zabka - sources
..........................................................................
** TOP STORIES ** Americas Companies / Indices **
..........................................................................
> TSX dips, pressured by financials and auto stocks
> General Motors to announce $1 bln in U.S. investment
> Bankrupt U.S. retailer American Apparel starts layoffs
> Noble Energy to buy Clayton Williams Energy for $2.7 bln
> Baidu names former Microsoft exec as COO in A.I push
> Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway wins reinsurance licence in Malaysia
> VW charges in US breach German constitution - defendant's lawyer
> Facebook moves to head off tougher regulation in Germany
> Ford S.Africa recalls Kugas after cars burst into flames
> After Vatican controversy, McDonald's helps feed homeless in Rome
> Canada's Trudeau faces ethics probe over Bahamas trip
> Bankrupt U.S. retailer American Apparel starts layoffs
> Canada home resales rise in December -CREA
> Canadian dollar weakens as oil dips, greenback rebounds
> British Columbia kicks off relief plan for home buyers
> Senior Canada military officer suspended from duty, no reason given
> Canada's Portag3 Ventures invests in Street Contxt
> Pipeline in Canada needs replacing after 'mischief' - police
> Temer says unemployment, not graft probe, biggest worry
> At least 5 dead in shooting at Mexico's BPM music festival
> Brazil police control new uprising at prison where 26 were killed
> Trump 'won't be worse than Obama,' says Venezuela's president
> BMW will open Mexican factory in 2019 despite Trump -executive
> Ten killed in drug-related violence in Mexican state of Guerrero
> Brazil issues first license for sale of a cannabis-based drug
> Peru economy grew 3.6 pct year-on-year in Nov -govt
> Bolivian, Argentina state-run oil companies sign exploration agreement
> Brazil car rental Movida's IPO could fetch $368 mln
> Costa Rica sues Nicaragua over alleged territory violation
........................................................................
from Marc Ostwald
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That's a lot of news. I will follow the trend as usual.
Dentalfloss
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usdjpy into our supp area
Dentalfloss
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eurusd wants to pop/upwards
spx wants to pop 2280
spx wants to pop 2280
Ftse - cable strengthens (temporarily?) oil WTI insipid around 53, ftse goes to sp 7290-300.
Depending on cable, weakens= back to yesterdays levels. Sp 7320, rez 7340-50, or strengthens= sp 7260ish rez 7280ish. lets see.
Edit; just spotted spike in WTI to 53.75. Things starting to get interesting......
Depending on cable, weakens= back to yesterdays levels. Sp 7320, rez 7340-50, or strengthens= sp 7260ish rez 7280ish. lets see.
Edit; just spotted spike in WTI to 53.75. Things starting to get interesting......
Standby for a short.....:cheesy:
In @1.226.... stop just above 1.23
Took some off @1.23.... stop tightened on rest.
re-test 1.225 as expected will it hold?
Dentalfloss
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we could get 1.2352-1.2384
poss 1.2412
poss 1.2412
Dentalfloss
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if she appoints Gareth Southgate as deputy prime minister
That OK will be stopped out before that!
Anything possible these days lol
