Dentalfloss
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Gap down for cable
1.2000.could be new res
1.2000.could be new res
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Atilla
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Yep that was the key test level imo.
Looks like it's held but I think that's just a holding point for TM's Tuesday speel.
If soundbites not good then it looks like 1.18 could very quickly become next test/supp level.
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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GBP crossses should be decent movement
Dentalfloss
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cable
not really that nasty...
not really that nasty...
Dentalfloss
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downside count of 1.1900 area
nearly there
nearly there
Dentalfloss
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in theory...1.1900 should be supp
1.2060 horizontal rez
1.2100/round
1.2120 rez area
1.2160...big momma is waiting there
lets see what happens
1.2060 horizontal rez
1.2100/round
1.2120 rez area
1.2160...big momma is waiting there
lets see what happens
Dentalfloss
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our 11520 supp area workin well
Dentalfloss
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- Quiet start to week due to US holiday; mixed Japan orders to digest,
along with latest Brexit 'news'; ECB and BoE speakers the other
highlight
- Week Ahead: UK, US and China dominates, but likely to be subordinate
to array of political news, rumours and events
- ECB to confirm steady policy outlook, but face awkward questions on
inflation forecasts, 'tapering' and council policy divisions
- Markets caught between array of uncertainties and TINA meme
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today's US Martin Luther King holiday will make for a quieter start to a fairly busy week for major statistics in the US, UK and China, which will also sees ECB and Bank of Canada policy meetings, the 'beano' that is the Davos World Economic Forum, the US Q4 Earnings season kicks into gear, and the week ends with a second key note speech from UK Prime Minister May at Davos (Thursday) and the inauguration of President Trump on Friday. Outside of digesting the ever volatile Japan Private Machinery Orders (softer than expected m/m, but above forecasts and very solid in y/y terms thanks to upward revisions), there is little on today's data schedule that is likely to attract much in the way of market attention, outside of the likely much discussed, though less than accurate or enlightening IMF World Economic Outlook update. By contrast the policy side of the agenda will doubtless see plenty of discussion of UK Chancellor Hammond's comments and reports about PM May's speech tomorrow on Brexit negotiations this week, while BoE governor Carney will give a keynote policy speech this evening, with a number of ECB speakers also scheduled ahead of this week's policy meeting. Markets continue to struggle to deal with the very large array of economic and political uncertainties that lie ahead, but are overall priced / positioned for what can be termed positive outcomes. However this continues to be predicated on the 'There Is No Alternative' mantra of recent years, predicated on the ongoing financial repression of post-GFC central bank policies, and its accompanying low returns bed fellow, rather than on firmly held optimism. Liquidity continues to remain severely impaired both by regulation and the constrictions of financial repression; as such thin and rather choppier trading conditions are likely to continue, until some of the fog of uncertainties starts to lift.
Recap / Annotated: The Week Ahead - highlights: 16 to 20 January 2017
- The US Martin Luther King holiday will make for a quieter start to a fairly busy week for major statistics in the US, UK and China, which will also see ECB and Bank of Canada policy meetings, the 'beano' that is the Davos World Economic Forum, the US Q4 Earnings season kicks into gear, and the week ends with the inauguration of President Trump.
- Statistically, the US has CPI, Industrial Production, the Fed's Beige Book, NY & Philly Fed Manufacturing & NAHB surveys along with Housing Starts. The UK sees CPI, RPI, PPI, House Prices, Unemployment, Average Earnings and Retail Sales, while China publishes Q4 GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Asset Investment. Elsewhere, Japan offers Machinery Orders and PPI, Australia Unemployment, Canada CPI and Retail Sales, Germany final CPI and the ZEW survey.
As has already been seen in many G7/Eurozone countries' CPI and or PPI data in recent months, the combination of the rebound in energy prices along with the unwind of sector base effects is shifting headline readings sharply higher, perhaps most notably and recently in Germany. That trend is expected to be particularly visible in the US this week, where a forecast 0.3% m/m rise would see the y/y rate vault higher to 2.1% y/y from 1.7%, with core CPI projected at 2.2% y/y from 2.1%. UK CPI and RPI are both expected to edge higher to 1.4% y/y (from 1.2%) and 2.3% (from 2.2%), though it is PPI Input (15.8% y/y vs prior 12.9%) and Output (2.9% vs. prior 2.3%), where the pressures are most likely to be evident.
The first US January Manufacturing surveys will be closely watched to ensure that the post-election confidence boost continues to be sustained (as is forecast), while Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output are seen rebounding 0.6% and 0.4% m/m respectively, after a primarily (weather related) utilities led falls of -0.4% and -0.1% m/m in November. However this would still leave official sector data lagging considerably stronger survey readings, even prior to the election. As with Friday's somewhat disappointing Retail Sales, this leaves the 'Trump bump' narrative still looking for confirmation in actual reported activity terms, rather than surveys.
China's Q4 GDP is projected to be unchanged at 6.7% y/y for a third consecutive quarter, a steady which will only serve to exacerbate already large doubts about the validity of the data. As such the focus will be on the monthly activity statistics, which are seen showing a a marginal slip in Retail Sales (10.7% y./y) and Industrial Production (6.1% y/y), while Fixed Asset Investment is seen steady at 8.3% y/y, though the key issue with the latter will be whether the improvement seen in Private Sector Investment in recent months (heavily dictated by property investment) is sustained. However markets will continue to be focussed far more on the gyrations of the CNY, and the accompanying debate in official circles about the appropriate FX policy parameters going forward, along with the rising trade and overall bilateral tensions with the USA as Trump takes office.
- In policy terms, the ECB is not expected to make any policy changes (unsurprisingly), but Draghi & Co will face some testing questions on the pick-up in inflation and the more vociferous dissent evident in the 'account' of the December policy meeting. But for the time being, the ECB will be keen to stick to the steady policy path signalled for 2017 at its December meeting, even if there are inevitably more questions about the chances of 'tapering', and perhaps some questions about whether Draghi is actually presenting an accurate 'account' of views on the ECB council. British PM May is due to make a keynote speech on the govt's Brexit negotiating stance on Tuesday, which will likely be more heavily anticipated than it proves to be enlightening or revealing in terms of her plans. The Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.50%, and is expected to keep policy on hold until H2 2018, with the focus on what tweaks are made to its growth and inflation forecast in its Monetary Policy Report, and whether there are nuanced changes to its overall policy outlook, which has been very neutral for a protracted period. Central Banks in Indonesia and Malaysia are seen on hold, but Chile's central bank is forecast to cut rates 25 bps to 3.25%, its first rate change since hiking rates by 25 bps in November 2015.
BoE's Carney will make a keynote policy speech, with plenty of Fed and ECB speak also on offer. The European Parliament will also elect a new President to take over from Martin Schulz, who is returning to German domestic politics.
OPEC will publish its monthly Oil Market Report, which will attract attention in terms of any revisions to the demand outlook, as the first production cut compliance is awaited on January 22nd.
- Govt bond supply will see the UK re-open its 2022 Gilt, the US re-open its 10-yr TIPS, Japan offer 5 & 20-yr JGBs. Meanwhile the Eurozone see a 2-yr sale in Germany, multi-maturity auctions in France, Spain and Slovakia, with syndicated sales also mooted in Belgium and Spain
from Marc Ostwald
along with latest Brexit 'news'; ECB and BoE speakers the other
highlight
- Week Ahead: UK, US and China dominates, but likely to be subordinate
to array of political news, rumours and events
- ECB to confirm steady policy outlook, but face awkward questions on
inflation forecasts, 'tapering' and council policy divisions
- Markets caught between array of uncertainties and TINA meme
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today's US Martin Luther King holiday will make for a quieter start to a fairly busy week for major statistics in the US, UK and China, which will also sees ECB and Bank of Canada policy meetings, the 'beano' that is the Davos World Economic Forum, the US Q4 Earnings season kicks into gear, and the week ends with a second key note speech from UK Prime Minister May at Davos (Thursday) and the inauguration of President Trump on Friday. Outside of digesting the ever volatile Japan Private Machinery Orders (softer than expected m/m, but above forecasts and very solid in y/y terms thanks to upward revisions), there is little on today's data schedule that is likely to attract much in the way of market attention, outside of the likely much discussed, though less than accurate or enlightening IMF World Economic Outlook update. By contrast the policy side of the agenda will doubtless see plenty of discussion of UK Chancellor Hammond's comments and reports about PM May's speech tomorrow on Brexit negotiations this week, while BoE governor Carney will give a keynote policy speech this evening, with a number of ECB speakers also scheduled ahead of this week's policy meeting. Markets continue to struggle to deal with the very large array of economic and political uncertainties that lie ahead, but are overall priced / positioned for what can be termed positive outcomes. However this continues to be predicated on the 'There Is No Alternative' mantra of recent years, predicated on the ongoing financial repression of post-GFC central bank policies, and its accompanying low returns bed fellow, rather than on firmly held optimism. Liquidity continues to remain severely impaired both by regulation and the constrictions of financial repression; as such thin and rather choppier trading conditions are likely to continue, until some of the fog of uncertainties starts to lift.
Recap / Annotated: The Week Ahead - highlights: 16 to 20 January 2017
- The US Martin Luther King holiday will make for a quieter start to a fairly busy week for major statistics in the US, UK and China, which will also see ECB and Bank of Canada policy meetings, the 'beano' that is the Davos World Economic Forum, the US Q4 Earnings season kicks into gear, and the week ends with the inauguration of President Trump.
- Statistically, the US has CPI, Industrial Production, the Fed's Beige Book, NY & Philly Fed Manufacturing & NAHB surveys along with Housing Starts. The UK sees CPI, RPI, PPI, House Prices, Unemployment, Average Earnings and Retail Sales, while China publishes Q4 GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Asset Investment. Elsewhere, Japan offers Machinery Orders and PPI, Australia Unemployment, Canada CPI and Retail Sales, Germany final CPI and the ZEW survey.
As has already been seen in many G7/Eurozone countries' CPI and or PPI data in recent months, the combination of the rebound in energy prices along with the unwind of sector base effects is shifting headline readings sharply higher, perhaps most notably and recently in Germany. That trend is expected to be particularly visible in the US this week, where a forecast 0.3% m/m rise would see the y/y rate vault higher to 2.1% y/y from 1.7%, with core CPI projected at 2.2% y/y from 2.1%. UK CPI and RPI are both expected to edge higher to 1.4% y/y (from 1.2%) and 2.3% (from 2.2%), though it is PPI Input (15.8% y/y vs prior 12.9%) and Output (2.9% vs. prior 2.3%), where the pressures are most likely to be evident.
The first US January Manufacturing surveys will be closely watched to ensure that the post-election confidence boost continues to be sustained (as is forecast), while Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output are seen rebounding 0.6% and 0.4% m/m respectively, after a primarily (weather related) utilities led falls of -0.4% and -0.1% m/m in November. However this would still leave official sector data lagging considerably stronger survey readings, even prior to the election. As with Friday's somewhat disappointing Retail Sales, this leaves the 'Trump bump' narrative still looking for confirmation in actual reported activity terms, rather than surveys.
China's Q4 GDP is projected to be unchanged at 6.7% y/y for a third consecutive quarter, a steady which will only serve to exacerbate already large doubts about the validity of the data. As such the focus will be on the monthly activity statistics, which are seen showing a a marginal slip in Retail Sales (10.7% y./y) and Industrial Production (6.1% y/y), while Fixed Asset Investment is seen steady at 8.3% y/y, though the key issue with the latter will be whether the improvement seen in Private Sector Investment in recent months (heavily dictated by property investment) is sustained. However markets will continue to be focussed far more on the gyrations of the CNY, and the accompanying debate in official circles about the appropriate FX policy parameters going forward, along with the rising trade and overall bilateral tensions with the USA as Trump takes office.
- In policy terms, the ECB is not expected to make any policy changes (unsurprisingly), but Draghi & Co will face some testing questions on the pick-up in inflation and the more vociferous dissent evident in the 'account' of the December policy meeting. But for the time being, the ECB will be keen to stick to the steady policy path signalled for 2017 at its December meeting, even if there are inevitably more questions about the chances of 'tapering', and perhaps some questions about whether Draghi is actually presenting an accurate 'account' of views on the ECB council. British PM May is due to make a keynote speech on the govt's Brexit negotiating stance on Tuesday, which will likely be more heavily anticipated than it proves to be enlightening or revealing in terms of her plans. The Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.50%, and is expected to keep policy on hold until H2 2018, with the focus on what tweaks are made to its growth and inflation forecast in its Monetary Policy Report, and whether there are nuanced changes to its overall policy outlook, which has been very neutral for a protracted period. Central Banks in Indonesia and Malaysia are seen on hold, but Chile's central bank is forecast to cut rates 25 bps to 3.25%, its first rate change since hiking rates by 25 bps in November 2015.
BoE's Carney will make a keynote policy speech, with plenty of Fed and ECB speak also on offer. The European Parliament will also elect a new President to take over from Martin Schulz, who is returning to German domestic politics.
OPEC will publish its monthly Oil Market Report, which will attract attention in terms of any revisions to the demand outlook, as the first production cut compliance is awaited on January 22nd.
- Govt bond supply will see the UK re-open its 2022 Gilt, the US re-open its 10-yr TIPS, Japan offer 5 & 20-yr JGBs. Meanwhile the Eurozone see a 2-yr sale in Germany, multi-maturity auctions in France, Spain and Slovakia, with syndicated sales also mooted in Belgium and Spain
from Marc Ostwald
Moneylender
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Morning all, Luther day in us so wait for the Trump dump!!
Dentalfloss
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CABLE
Dentalfloss
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from that chart
downside horizontal counts...targets hit
especially the consolidation count/aqua horizontal
we could get a decent swing trade/long
could be bumpy...lol
chart is above
downside horizontal counts...targets hit
especially the consolidation count/aqua horizontal
we could get a decent swing trade/long
could be bumpy...lol
chart is above
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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consolidation/green
shorter term horizontal counts have been hit
from the width of that consolidation...the wider count/green horizontal gives us Atillas 1.1800 area
shorter term horizontal counts have been hit
from the width of that consolidation...the wider count/green horizontal gives us Atillas 1.1800 area
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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the last 2 recoils have the same height.ie bounce was similar number of pips
G'day folks,
Broadly flat at the start of this week. Did keep a small position open short on the Aussie...which has gone down at last! Looking to close @0.74ish, in profit and tightened stop.
FTSE - rez 6350-60. Could be near the top.... take some getting through that rez imho... could be wrong. Lets see how price reacts this week. Sp 6320ish for now.
Cable - overreaction, but could go lower. Interested in building longs on anything under 1.20 - long term trade. UK will do just fine longer term, and with elections coming up in France and Germany, peoples attention will be diverted.....
Oil WTI - in sp 53. Longer term 55-60 (If I say it long enough it will come true lol). Anything under 53 will consider going long.... depending on "events".
In summary...ftse - neutral (short term), cable - long under 1.20 (longer term), oil WTI - long under 53. I think oil will provide some of the best shorter term opps. Lets see.
Broadly flat at the start of this week. Did keep a small position open short on the Aussie...which has gone down at last! Looking to close @0.74ish, in profit and tightened stop.
FTSE - rez 6350-60. Could be near the top.... take some getting through that rez imho... could be wrong. Lets see how price reacts this week. Sp 6320ish for now.
Cable - overreaction, but could go lower. Interested in building longs on anything under 1.20 - long term trade. UK will do just fine longer term, and with elections coming up in France and Germany, peoples attention will be diverted.....
Oil WTI - in sp 53. Longer term 55-60 (If I say it long enough it will come true lol). Anything under 53 will consider going long.... depending on "events".
In summary...ftse - neutral (short term), cable - long under 1.20 (longer term), oil WTI - long under 53. I think oil will provide some of the best shorter term opps. Lets see.
Atilla
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Whilst 0000 zeros are always key S/R levels i always find the 2s or 20s n 40s more significant areas.
19 is an odd primary number and fwiw i don't like it...
Atilla
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fwiw - I'm thinking cable will just move sideways waiting for TM's speel.
FTSE is in inverse relationship to the pound.
This is an ideal setup for two limit trades one to buy and one to sell either sides of the Bollinger Band.
No idea at the mo which way she's going to blow from here. I thought 1.20 might be supp, with 1.22 PP but I'm now lost after the quick gap down. It's possible 1.20 becomes the new PP.
I'm thinking someone somewhere knows and this is the early bird trade. A bit like just before xmas pound dropped from 1.25s and then we had resignation on first day of Jan. All hear say and hunches but not much else at the moment.
PP showing silly numbers with the gap down.
PP @ 1.2183
S1 @ 1.2131
S2 @ 1.2070
S3 @ 1.1957
S4 @ 1.1854
I must be feeling overly pessimistic
FTSE is in inverse relationship to the pound.
This is an ideal setup for two limit trades one to buy and one to sell either sides of the Bollinger Band.
No idea at the mo which way she's going to blow from here. I thought 1.20 might be supp, with 1.22 PP but I'm now lost after the quick gap down. It's possible 1.20 becomes the new PP.
I'm thinking someone somewhere knows and this is the early bird trade. A bit like just before xmas pound dropped from 1.25s and then we had resignation on first day of Jan. All hear say and hunches but not much else at the moment.
PP showing silly numbers with the gap down.
PP @ 1.2183
S1 @ 1.2131
S2 @ 1.2070
S3 @ 1.1957
S4 @ 1.1854
I must be feeling overly pessimistic
fwiw - I'm thinking cable will just move sideways waiting for TM's speel.
FTSE is in inverse relationship to the pound.
This is an ideal setup for two limit trades one to buy and one to sell either sides of the Bollinger Band.
No idea at the mo which way she's going to blow from here. I thought 1.20 might be supp, with 1.22 PP but I'm now lost after the quick gap down. It's possible 1.20 becomes the new PP.
I'm thinking someone somewhere knows and this is the early bird trade. A bit like just before xmas pound dropped from 1.25s and then we had resignation on first day of Jan. All hear say and hunches but not much else at the moment.
PP showing silly numbers with the gap down.
PP @ 1.2183
S1 @ 1.2131
S2 @ 1.2070
S3 @ 1.1957
S4 @ 1.1854
I must be feeling overly pessimistic
Hi Attila,
Thanks for posting your analysis. Could go 1.18 for sure but the buyers will be in after that I think. I think the money is on the side-lines atm looking for the best price to get in long for swing trades. We will end up going back to 1.25ish - when? who knows.
I noted the drop in cable had a muted reaction on the ftse... all clues to me. Hence feeling 7350-60 is going to be a big rez area.
WTI oil, another bellwether, seems to have solid support 52-53....
All Mk1 eyeball stuff... could be wrong.
Atilla
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I don't think the gap down has quite sank in. It's a very negative sign to me. Asia was down overnight too. Europe following. US closed but I have a sneaky feeling they'll be heading due South following in steps.
FTSE should continue rising if pound collapses.
All in the words. Some respects I'm glad 1.20 held but I don't feel confident and now rudderless. Likely to be a very turbulent week.
Thinking I may stay out until May has her limelight show and Trump gets in and reconsider next Monday. Easy come easy go.
