Trading with point and figure

Morning,

ftse looking at sp 6920 rez 6940-50 first up.

Next sp 6900-10 Rez 6930

Oil+/cable - may pull ftse up later.... lets see
 
ftse
in supp..as per swissy

2cy0ajd.gif
 
- Digesting better than expected results from Deutsche on another busy day
for corporate earnings; UK prov. Q3 GDP, US Durable Goods, Claims and
Pending Home Sales top busier day for data; Riksbank and Norges Bank
rate meetings, ECB speakers and US 7-yr auction also on tap

- Riksbank: seen holding rates and QE volumes, but hint at further easing
before year end

- Norges Bank: seen on hold for a very protracted period, may warn on
strengthening NOK

- UK Q3 GDP: seen slowing from Q2, but not due to any Brexit effects;
Services likely to be key motor for growth, construction likely to drag

- US Durable Goods: seen little changed for second month, aircraft orders
may provide modestly stronger headline boost; focus on shipments for
last minute revisions to GDP forecasts

- US Jobless Claims: prior week jump expected to be little than a blip

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

So on this 30th anniversary of the UK's Big Bang, we reach what can be termed the business end of the week, as far as the statistical schedule goes, and indeed the central bank schedule, with rate decisions in Norway and Sweden, and three ECB speakers on tap, which will be accompanied by another flood of corporate earnings and a 7-yr US Treasury auction. The UK kicks off the run of European Q3 advance GDP readings, accompanied by the Index of Services and the CBI's Retailing survey; business and consumer confidence surveys dominate on the comment, with Eurozone M3 also on tap; while the US has weekly jobless claims, Durable Goods Orders and Pending Home Sales. Deutsche Bank's surprise Q3 profit should offer some solace to financials, given the preceding furore, though as with the better than expected results from the large US banks, the boost from FICC trading during Q3 thanks to the Brexit rally in bond markets will likely be a one-off boost, rather than signalling an underlying improvement in this segment of the market. The DoJ negotiations clearly remain the elephant in the room, given that Deutsche remains under capitalized. Sweden's collection of inflation nutters, also known as the Riksbank, are expected to keep rates (-0.50%) and QE volumes at current levels, but with September's CPI turning out well below forecasts at 0.9% y/y headline and 1.2% y/y core, they are likely to strike a dovish tone and hint at more QE by the end of the year, despite their best efforts to play down the September CPI miss. Eminently a sharp reduction in Riksgalden's (debt office) issuance plans for 2017 due to better than expected revenues may also pose some challenges for any increase in QE purchases, and with the SEK continuing to lose ground, and energy prices rising, last month's CPI miss may prove to be an outlier, rather than indicating a trend change, as some have suggested. Norges Bank is also expected to hold its key policy rate 0.50% today, and the consensus looks for a very protracted period of no change on rates until Q2 2018. While Norway's September CPI fell back rather more sharply than had been anticipated (3.6% y/y vs. August 4.0%), with underlying CPI slipping to 2.9% y/y (August 3.3%), it remains well above target. The central bank will likely opine that a further appreciation of the NOK might present headwinds, which could prompt it to revert to an easing bias.

** U.K. - Q3 GDP **
- As ever, it should be noted that this preliminary version of GDP is very short on detail, and in light of differentiated reactions across all sector and regions of the UK economy to the Brexit referendum, the assumptions that underlie this heavily "guesstimated" report may be incorrect and/or require substantial revision. Be that as it may, incoming UK data has clearly not been of the doom and gloom variety that some had anticipated, and after the Q2 rebound from a soft Q1, in no small part dictated by Easter timing effects, a slower pace in Q3 always seemed likely. As such the consensus forecast for 0.3% q/q 2.1% vs. Q2 0.7% q/q 2.1% y/y looks reasonable, with forecasts for the June-August Index of Services at 0.8% q/q, though August alone is seen slowing to 0.1% m/m from 0.4%, implying that Services and Personal Consumption should as ever be the key driver. That said, the sustainability looks very questionable, notwithstanding a pick-up in Manufacturing (still only 11% of UK GDP), above all in the light of yesterday's BBA lending data - House Purchase Approvals -15% y/y, Remortagaging +15% y/y, Unsecured Credit +6% y/y, Business Lending down.

** U.S.A. - Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales **
- Following on from a broad sweep of positive US data surprises yesterday - narrower Trade deficit, Wholesale Sales/Inventories gap narrows, jump in Markit Services PMI to an 11-month high - the focus today will be on the ever volatile Durable Goods Orders. Forecasts look for headline Orders to be unchanged after rising 0.1% in August, which thanks to an aircraft related surge of 3.6% m/m in July would be a relatively positive profile for Q3, though this does follow a relatively steep fall in Q2; the ex-Transport measure is seen up 0.2% m/m reversing August's fall, but modestly positive for Q3 due to July's 1.1% m/m. An outlier looks to be a relatively high probability outcome, perhaps marginally skewed in risk terms to the upside, if surveys and the Beige Book are any indication, and at the headline level due to a small boost from Aircraft orders. In GDP terms, it will be shipments which are more important and the picture here is far less favourable, with the expected 0.4% m/m following August's -0.1% m/m and July's -0.7% m/m, per se implying continued weakness in Business Investment in Equipment. Initial Claims are seen drifting lower after an expected flip up to 260K last week from a 43 year low the previous week, with no reasons to expect that last week's uptick augurs a less favourable profile to the labour market. Last but not least, Pending Home Sales are seen rebounding 1.1% m/m after falling 2.4% m/m in August and rising 1.1% in July, which continues to suggest that low levels of inventories continue to present headwinds.

from Marc Ostwald
 
pivot area on oil seems important
will it hold..??
think that it could test that trendline\aqua
index might go with it
lets see
50.00 is mega rez
look for 49.00 area to be rez on a fake
 
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