Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

off we go..
bulls need to work hard...lol

 

[Dentalfloss]

oil
in a pivot area...a bad bounce= bears in..lol

 

[Dentalfloss]

cable over the last week

 

[Dentalfloss]

we could fake into 18083 area

 

[Dentalfloss]

spx

nearly into major supp area

 

[Dentalfloss]

if 10700 breaks..then 10680 area..should be decent supp tharr

 

[Dentalfloss]

- Digesting higher than forecast Australia CPI, Singapore Production rebound,
awaiting UK BBA Mortgage Approvals, US Goods Trade balance, Services PMI
and New Home Sales; further deluge of corporate earnings; German and US
5-yr auctions; EIA inventories also in focus after API jump

- US Trade Balance: wider deficit expected, implying broadly neutral
net exports contribution to Friday's Q3 Advance GDP

- US Services PMI: seen consolidating September pick-up, focus on Orders
and Employment

- US New Home Sales: modest slip expected as July surge unwinds, underlying
profile solid


..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

A busier day in terms of statistics has the overnight Australian CPI and French & German Consumer Confidence to digest, ahead of UK BBA Mortgage Approvals, with the US offering the Advance Goods Trade Balance, Services PMI and New Home Sales. On the policy front, some attention will need to be given to the Tusk/Juncker testimony on last week's EU summit, which saw the region of Wallonia torpedo the EU/Canada trade accord, and little, if any progress on multitude of divisive issues in the EU; while in South Africa beleaguered Finance Minister Gordhan presents the medium-term budget policy statement to parliament. Oil markets will be watching today's EIA oil inventories readings very closely, after yesterday's API readings evidenced a much larger than expected build for the first time in many, many weeks, as the OPEC/non-OPEC production talks continue to rumble on in the background. Corporate earnings continue to be very plentiful, with yesterday's results on balance proving disappointing (above all the very overcrowded long that is Apple); meanwhile govt bond supply sees Germany sells 5-yr OBL, Italy offers 8 & 10-yr inflation linked BTPs and the US sells 2-yr FRN and 5-yr Treasury Note. Yesterday's US 2-yr Treasury sale proved to be something of a 'turkey', with the cover slipping to 2.53x vs a 6 month average of 2.73x, Indirect bids were 33.7% vs. 6-mth avg of 42.8%, Direct bids were 10.1% vs. 6-mth avg of 18.6%, leaving primary dealers having to take down 56.2% of the sale vs. 6-mth avg of 38.6%, and issue tailed 0.1 bps relative to WI levels vs. an average "stop through" WI of 0.3 bps. Also of note via Samuel Tombs at Pantheon is the attached chart of UK wholesale electricity prices and the likelihood that this will be another feeder into the upward pressures on CPI.

** U.S.A. - Trade, Services PMI, New Home Sales **
- Today's trade data are significant given the implications for Q3 GDP, though the trade contribution to the latter will be estimated on the basis of the overall July/August Trade Balance data with an assumption for September. July ($-58.8 Bln) and August ($-59.15 Bln) were better than forecast, and the projection of a wider $-60.8 Bn Sept goods deficit implies that trade should have a broadly neutral, perhaps marginally negative impact on Q3 GDP, after a positive contribution to Q2. The Markit Services PMI continues to be something of a poor cousin to the more closely followed, but of late much more volatile Non-manufacturing ISM, with the consensus again looking for little change (as it often does) at 52.4, after posting a 5-month high of 52.3 in September, which would fit with the ongoing 'modest' pace of expansion in the sector noted in the Beige Book. However, it will be worth watching both Orders and Employment sub-indices fell in September, thus contradicting that headline rise. In contrast to last week's Existing Home Sales (+3.2% m/m), New Home Sales are expected to fall for a second month by 1.0% m/m to a still very robust 600K, in effect continuing a mean reversion after a +13.8% m/m surge to a nine year high of 659K SAAR in July. Inventories will as ever require attention, with August seeing a modest pick up to 4.6 months of supply.

from Marc Ostwald

 

[Dentalfloss]

spx could pump to 2142 and test the bulls
ftse and dax should go with it

 

[Dentalfloss]

pump to 10775..??
7020 ftse..maybe 7029

 

[swissy]

Morning 007 - agree with levels. ftse sp 6970-80 rez 7020.

oil pushing up again - could sustain ftse to rez. cable mixed but down overall.

Fairly thin this am - possible fakes in either direction.

 

[Dentalfloss]

if 10700 breaks..then 10680 area..should be decent supp tharr

10700 break...excellent
in our supp now

 

[Dentalfloss]

should bounce..?? into our marked rez areas
6970 firts
10700-10720
spx in our 2133 supp...poss bounce to 2137 area
dow...in our supp area 18083..ish
lets see

 

[swissy]

ftse - could have the making of a bear trap.

Looking at 6930 -35....

 

[Dentalfloss]

ftse - could have the making of a bear trap.

Looking at 6930 -35....

yes sir:smart::smart:

 

[Dentalfloss]

10700 break...excellent
in our supp now

broke that..excellent

 

[Dentalfloss]

18083..bang on

 

[Dentalfloss]

18083..bang on

a big spike upwards
excellent
any reason ..??

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax gone with it
excellent

 

[Dentalfloss]

earnings release..???

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax