1) As was widely anticipated, the ECB left policy unchanged, and its 12:45 statement was indeed a carbon copy of the previous two meetings, which should have served as a warning that the press conference (just 45 minutes long) would offer nothing new either.
2) There were the odd tid-bits to ponder, though the "current monetary policy cannot stay in place forever" was not really one of them, but rather one to be sorted under 'stating the obvious'. While not new, Draghi did emphasize again that the ECB was not seeing any signs of an upward trend in underlying inflation, which could well serve as justification for an extension of the QE programme in December. It may even provide a justification for a "low" 2019 CPI forecast, in other words one that suggests headline CPI would still not be 'just below 2.0%', with the rationale being that the unwind of energy base effects is not feeding into core CPI. The latter will be a sine qua non for a QE extension, and there was a clear hint in the comment ""We've said several times that durable convergence (between inflation and monetary policy largesse) means that this objective should be achieved in a sustainable and durable way. Namely, we will look through blips that are caused by other factors."
3) Nevertheless he did seem keen to dismiss the weaker growth prospects in Spain and Italy, and noted "It's the first
thing we've seen after a long sequence of positive demand ... look at the aggregate, the entire euro zone."
4) Given the clear desire not to offer any hints on the December policy outcome, it is perhaps a little surprising that the assembled mass of journalists did not opt to ask about Deutsche Bank, or indeed Italian banks.
5) While we have some sympathy for the tightrope tactic that Draghi & Co have adopted, it may still back fire. Obviously, they will have time after the US election to offer markets some "guidance" on what to expect in December. But barring the neutral option of a 6-mth extension with no CPI revisions, and assuming 2019 CPI still seen sufficiently "below target" off to justify it, then anything else, for example a 6-mth extension but pre-announce tapering to start next September, combined with a Fed rate hike could well set the cat among the pigeons in the bond & credit markets, which would imply risk for other asset classes. In the meantime oil prices will have to be watched carefully as a proxy for how sharp the unwind of energy base effects on headline CPI in many G7 & Eurozone countries will be; any sustained pick up in agricultural commodities in combination with energy prices would (if realized) prove very unsettling.
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Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International