Trading with point and figure

cable in a pivot area /aqua
pump or dump

2aezgwo.gif
 
1.2306-1.2320/aqua
rez/red at 1.2418 area
supp/prev breakout 1.2250-1.2264

1.2376 first
 
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could even get 1.2460
lookin reasonably bullish
1,2500/ round ..the big number
we had it marked last week ..as starting to get bullish
3 box vertical count gives 1.2600...could be a bumpy ride...lol
 
- ECB centre stage as markets digest final presidential debate, Oz
Employment surprise slide, Dudley rate comments; UK Retail Sales, US
Claims, Philly Fed & Existing Home Sales; France, Spain, US auctions
and another raft of corporate earnings

- UK Retail Sales: modest rebound expected, CPI implies some downside
risks

- ECB: Draghi to continue to walk a tightrope on policy signals, set
to underline policy moves contingent on Dec staff forecasts

- US Claims: seen remaining close to 43-yr lows in Payrolls survey week

- Philly Fed: setback expected after Sept jump, but still signalling
reasonable pace of activity

- FWIW - replay of Monday's Hedge Fund Radio N@ked Short Club
Offbeat hour long chat about hedge funds, agri sustainability, energy
and broader market liquidity risks
https://www.mixcloud.com/Resonance/the-naked-short-club-17th-october-2016/

- Charts: WTI Oil future and Fed rate expectations by meeting

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Once again politics and monetary policy events seem likely to have the ascendancy over the day's relatively modest schedule of economic data, which features UK Retail Sales, US jobless claims, the Philly Fed's manufacturing survey and Existing Home Sales. The ECB press conference takes centre stage, once the final, and as ever toxic, slagging match masquerading as a presidential TV debate has been digested, with a close eye being kept on the first day of the European Council meeting, with the modestly hawkish Fed speak from NY Fed's Dudley overnight (he speaks again today), and the Witney by-election in the UK offering further items for consideration. US Corporate earnings again feature financials, but real economy and tech heavyweights such as Microsoft, Pulte, Schlumberger and Verizon may steal the show. Spain and France issue a mix of govt bonds, while the US re-opens its current 30-yr TIPS via auction.

** Eurozone - ECB meeting **
- No changes are expected at today's meeting, not only in respect of rates and the overall QE programme, but also in terms of any adjustment to the more technical operating parameters for its asset purchase programmes. The ECB has been very active in ensuring that markets do not get "carried away" in either policy direction - i.e. QE extension or QE taper, in no small part due to the sobering lesson from the run up to and aftermath of last December's meeting. Sources suggest that Draghi will continue to walk a tightrope on this front, much will in any case depend on how the ECB's forecasts are revised in December, with oil prices potentially a key element therein, above all the forecast for 2019 CPI. Draghi will doubtless reiterate yet again that the ECB cannot turn economies around on its own, and that governments must do more in terms of structural reforms and better deployment of fiscal policy, and that banks must use the ECB's monetary policy largesse to repair their balance sheets, with questions about Deutsche Bank likely to feature in the Q&A, along with the array of political and banking concerns in Italy. However it is quite possible that the overall "takeaways" from the press conference may prove to be rather underwhelming.

** U.K. - September Retail Sales **
- Consensus projections for Retail Sales see a 0.2% m/m rise after a 0.3% m/m fall in August, signalling a rather flat profile to consumer spending, and look to be predicated on the rebound in the BRC's Retail Sales measures. The pointers from CPI suggest some downside risks, above all due to the surge in clothing prices, and to a much smaller degree Furniture & Household Goods, along with Petrol prices, though there should be some offset from Food.

** U.S.A. - Initial Claims / October Philadelphia Fed **
- Claims are expected to edge higher to 251K from last week's 43 year low of 246K, and will be accorded slightly more significance as they cover the week of the establishment survey for Non-farm Payrolls. After a weaker than expected NY Fed reading, the consensus looks for a modest setback to 5.0 for the Philadelphia Fed survey, which would mirror the divergent profile for the two regions in yesterday's Beige Book. Following the erratic fall in Housing Starts yesterday, which the surge in Building Permits implies was an outlier, the sector focus turns to Existing Home Sales, which are seen up just 0.4% m/m to a very robust 5.35 Mln SAAR rate, with the risks perhaps down to the downside due to the low levels of inventories, which are persistently reported as restraining sales.


from Marc Ostwald
 
holidays gettin cheaper
eurgbp

a bad bounce and bears in for the kill
 

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dump or pump is 0.8900 area
rez starts at .8950
0.9021 big rez area/trend rez
 
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