Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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ftse into the open
6965 trend supp
7040 trend rez
7K ..the messy zone
6930 prev rez
6965 trend supp
7040 trend rez
7K ..the messy zone
6930 prev rez
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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DAX into the open
1 week of data
1 week of data
Dentalfloss
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- Digesting mixed Japan Tankan, better than expected but still weak Singapore
& Indonesia exports, awaiting US Industrial Production, NY Fed, Fischer
speech and Corporate Earnings
- US Industrial Production: tepid rebound from August fall expected, Q3
seen eking out modest gain; NY Fed Manufacturing expected to edge back
into positive territory
- Week Ahead: US, UK & China dominate data run; ECB expected to walk a thin
line; BoC to hold rates, but downgrade outlook; Brazil and Turkey to cut
rates
- Charts: US Hight Yield ETF, JPM EMBI bond spread; CFTC Energy & Baker
Hughes Rig count
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A reasonably busy start to the week in terms of data and events, with the focus likely on the U.S., as markets await more Fed speak (Fischer), the NY Fed Manufactruing and Industrial Production and a gaggle of corporate earnings reports. Beyond that, there are the mixed overnight Japan monthly Tankan (Manufacturing picking up, but Services at a 3 1/2 year low, somewhat better than expected Singapore exports, and weaker than expected Indonesian Trade to digest. On the policy side BoE's Broadbent testifies to parliament's pensions committee, and in an early radio interview has described the pound's fall as a 'shock absorber', and underlined the need for a flexible currency, while implicitly suggesting that he is not against inflation rising above target in the next two years, thus echoing Carney on Friday. Overall market sentiment continues to be a mixture of fragile confusion over the near-term direction, though the rise in G7 bond yields continues to be a notable feature, even if this appears to be impingeing only modestly on HY and EM credit (see attached charts). The steepening of G7/Eurozone yield curves is certainly logical, in so far as Yellen's comments on allowing the economy "run hot" imply a higher level of inflation than has been / is being discounted in long dated bond yields
RECAP: Week Ahead preview
1) Statistics: It will be a busy week for US, UK and Chinese statistics.
- Inflation data feature in the UK and US, whereby UK CPI and RPI are forecast to rise modestly on the month, but see base effects push up y/y rates to 0.9% from 0.6% and 2.0% from 1.0% respectively, with PPI Output seen up 0.1% m/m for 1.1% y/y vs. Aug 0.8%.
- US headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% m/m, which would see y/y rate up to 1.5% from 1.1%, while core CPI is seen steady at 2.3% y/y.
_ US Industrial Production is forecast to rebound only 0.2% m/m after August's -0.4% m/m, implying Q3 Production rose 0.3% q/q. The first of the October manufacturing surveys via NY and Philly Fed are expected to continue paint a mixed picture for the sector.
- UK labour data are forecast to see a marginal rise in the Claimant Count, no change in Average Earnings (2.3% y/y), but a sharp slowdown in Jun-Aug Employment to 70K (prior +174K), with Vacancies which have been close to all-time highs also requiring attention.
- UK Retail Sales are projected to rebound 0.3% m/m from August's -0.2%, thus sustaining a solid 4.8% y/y rate.
- US Housing data - NAHB, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales - are expected to remain at robust levels, whereby Housing Starts will be most closely watched after an unexpectedly sharp -5.8% drop in August; a 2.7% m/m rebound is expected.
- For China, Q3 GDP is seen holding a steady line at 1.8% q/q 6.7% y/y, while Industrial Production at 6.4% y/y, and Retail Sales at 10.7% are both seen up 0.1 ppt relative to August, as is Jan-Sep Fixed Asset Investment at 8.2%. While large questions remain about the veracity of the data, it would fit with the pick-up in last week's Electricity Consumption data (6.4% y/y), and would also suggest that the August pick-up was more than a correction of the flood hit July data.
2) Central Banks -
- Fed; Ms Yellen struck a decidedly dovish tone in her speech on Friday (http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20161014a.htm), underlining the need for the Fed to allow the
economy to run at a 'high pressure' pace (in terms of employment and inflation), while Mr Dudley erred more towards the centre ground in expecting a rate hike this year. Vice chair Fischer Fed speech on Monday will therfore be watched closely, as well as this week's Beige Book.
- ECB meeting - no changes expected, and the ECB has been very active in ensuring that markets do not get "carried away" (in either direction - i.e. QE extension or QE taper) as they did last year ahead of the December meeting, only to be disappointed. Sources suggest that Draghi will continue to walk a tightrope on this front, much will in any case depend on how the ECB's forecasts are revised in December, with oil prices eminently a key element therein.
- Bank of Canada - rates are seen on hold at 0.50%, though a dovish tone is expected, with particular focus on the assessment of the weakness in non-energy exports, which appeared to be a key concern at the last meeting, along with business investment and slower household spending. Growth forecasts are per se expected to be revised somewhat lower.
- Rates seen on hold in Chile, Indonesia, Mozambique and Paraguay, while Turkey's TCMB is seen narrowing its rate corridor again with a 25 bps cut to its borrowing rate, but keeping other rates on hold, again constrained by persistently high inflation and renewed TRY weakness. Brazil's COPOM is expected to embark on a modest initial 25 bps rate cut to 14.0%, facilitated by some ebbing of inflation pressures, a firmer BRL and fiscal austerity.
3) Politics
- The final presidential TV debate seems unlikely to offer much in the way of fresh insights, though Mrs Clinton will doubtless be hoping for Mr Trump to drop some clangers, post debate polls will be closely watched.
- UK/EU Brexit sparring will remain front and central, the more so given this week's European Council meeting, at which Mrs May will be present for the first time. The Witney by-election result will also be watched closely, though the Conservatives are seen holding Mr Cameron's former sear.
4) US Corporate Earnings pick up markedly this week, while govt bond supply features multi tranche auctions in Slovakia, France and Spain, 10-yr in the UK, 30-yr in Germany and 30-yr TIPS in the U.S.
Also: You are cordially invited to listen to
The N@ked Short Club Happens on Monday, Oct. 17 hosted by Dr. Stu.
21.00-22.00 hrs, London time, on Resonance FM
104.4FM within London/ online worldwide via www.resonancefm.com:
1 hour of loose talk about hedge funds, agricultural investment, markets, the economy, sustainability and private jets plus poetry and heady music: No promotional agenda, no commercial intent...just Purest Alpha and Madoff Ponzi Bier in these interesting times, with expert guests:
Dr. Paul McMahon- Managing Partner, SLM; Simon Kerr- Publisher, Hedge Fund Insight; Marc Ostwald- FX, Rates & Fixed Income Strategist, ADM ISI; Louise Burns- Bride Valley Partners. Poetry: Pele Cox. Irish Country Dancing: Alg'h O'Rhythm. Master Engineer: Chris Dixon.
from Marc Ostwald
& Indonesia exports, awaiting US Industrial Production, NY Fed, Fischer
speech and Corporate Earnings
- US Industrial Production: tepid rebound from August fall expected, Q3
seen eking out modest gain; NY Fed Manufacturing expected to edge back
into positive territory
- Week Ahead: US, UK & China dominate data run; ECB expected to walk a thin
line; BoC to hold rates, but downgrade outlook; Brazil and Turkey to cut
rates
- Charts: US Hight Yield ETF, JPM EMBI bond spread; CFTC Energy & Baker
Hughes Rig count
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A reasonably busy start to the week in terms of data and events, with the focus likely on the U.S., as markets await more Fed speak (Fischer), the NY Fed Manufactruing and Industrial Production and a gaggle of corporate earnings reports. Beyond that, there are the mixed overnight Japan monthly Tankan (Manufacturing picking up, but Services at a 3 1/2 year low, somewhat better than expected Singapore exports, and weaker than expected Indonesian Trade to digest. On the policy side BoE's Broadbent testifies to parliament's pensions committee, and in an early radio interview has described the pound's fall as a 'shock absorber', and underlined the need for a flexible currency, while implicitly suggesting that he is not against inflation rising above target in the next two years, thus echoing Carney on Friday. Overall market sentiment continues to be a mixture of fragile confusion over the near-term direction, though the rise in G7 bond yields continues to be a notable feature, even if this appears to be impingeing only modestly on HY and EM credit (see attached charts). The steepening of G7/Eurozone yield curves is certainly logical, in so far as Yellen's comments on allowing the economy "run hot" imply a higher level of inflation than has been / is being discounted in long dated bond yields
RECAP: Week Ahead preview
1) Statistics: It will be a busy week for US, UK and Chinese statistics.
- Inflation data feature in the UK and US, whereby UK CPI and RPI are forecast to rise modestly on the month, but see base effects push up y/y rates to 0.9% from 0.6% and 2.0% from 1.0% respectively, with PPI Output seen up 0.1% m/m for 1.1% y/y vs. Aug 0.8%.
- US headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% m/m, which would see y/y rate up to 1.5% from 1.1%, while core CPI is seen steady at 2.3% y/y.
_ US Industrial Production is forecast to rebound only 0.2% m/m after August's -0.4% m/m, implying Q3 Production rose 0.3% q/q. The first of the October manufacturing surveys via NY and Philly Fed are expected to continue paint a mixed picture for the sector.
- UK labour data are forecast to see a marginal rise in the Claimant Count, no change in Average Earnings (2.3% y/y), but a sharp slowdown in Jun-Aug Employment to 70K (prior +174K), with Vacancies which have been close to all-time highs also requiring attention.
- UK Retail Sales are projected to rebound 0.3% m/m from August's -0.2%, thus sustaining a solid 4.8% y/y rate.
- US Housing data - NAHB, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales - are expected to remain at robust levels, whereby Housing Starts will be most closely watched after an unexpectedly sharp -5.8% drop in August; a 2.7% m/m rebound is expected.
- For China, Q3 GDP is seen holding a steady line at 1.8% q/q 6.7% y/y, while Industrial Production at 6.4% y/y, and Retail Sales at 10.7% are both seen up 0.1 ppt relative to August, as is Jan-Sep Fixed Asset Investment at 8.2%. While large questions remain about the veracity of the data, it would fit with the pick-up in last week's Electricity Consumption data (6.4% y/y), and would also suggest that the August pick-up was more than a correction of the flood hit July data.
2) Central Banks -
- Fed; Ms Yellen struck a decidedly dovish tone in her speech on Friday (http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20161014a.htm), underlining the need for the Fed to allow the
economy to run at a 'high pressure' pace (in terms of employment and inflation), while Mr Dudley erred more towards the centre ground in expecting a rate hike this year. Vice chair Fischer Fed speech on Monday will therfore be watched closely, as well as this week's Beige Book.
- ECB meeting - no changes expected, and the ECB has been very active in ensuring that markets do not get "carried away" (in either direction - i.e. QE extension or QE taper) as they did last year ahead of the December meeting, only to be disappointed. Sources suggest that Draghi will continue to walk a tightrope on this front, much will in any case depend on how the ECB's forecasts are revised in December, with oil prices eminently a key element therein.
- Bank of Canada - rates are seen on hold at 0.50%, though a dovish tone is expected, with particular focus on the assessment of the weakness in non-energy exports, which appeared to be a key concern at the last meeting, along with business investment and slower household spending. Growth forecasts are per se expected to be revised somewhat lower.
- Rates seen on hold in Chile, Indonesia, Mozambique and Paraguay, while Turkey's TCMB is seen narrowing its rate corridor again with a 25 bps cut to its borrowing rate, but keeping other rates on hold, again constrained by persistently high inflation and renewed TRY weakness. Brazil's COPOM is expected to embark on a modest initial 25 bps rate cut to 14.0%, facilitated by some ebbing of inflation pressures, a firmer BRL and fiscal austerity.
3) Politics
- The final presidential TV debate seems unlikely to offer much in the way of fresh insights, though Mrs Clinton will doubtless be hoping for Mr Trump to drop some clangers, post debate polls will be closely watched.
- UK/EU Brexit sparring will remain front and central, the more so given this week's European Council meeting, at which Mrs May will be present for the first time. The Witney by-election result will also be watched closely, though the Conservatives are seen holding Mr Cameron's former sear.
4) US Corporate Earnings pick up markedly this week, while govt bond supply features multi tranche auctions in Slovakia, France and Spain, 10-yr in the UK, 30-yr in Germany and 30-yr TIPS in the U.S.
Also: You are cordially invited to listen to
The N@ked Short Club Happens on Monday, Oct. 17 hosted by Dr. Stu.
21.00-22.00 hrs, London time, on Resonance FM
104.4FM within London/ online worldwide via www.resonancefm.com:
1 hour of loose talk about hedge funds, agricultural investment, markets, the economy, sustainability and private jets plus poetry and heady music: No promotional agenda, no commercial intent...just Purest Alpha and Madoff Ponzi Bier in these interesting times, with expert guests:
Dr. Paul McMahon- Managing Partner, SLM; Simon Kerr- Publisher, Hedge Fund Insight; Marc Ostwald- FX, Rates & Fixed Income Strategist, ADM ISI; Louise Burns- Bride Valley Partners. Poetry: Pele Cox. Irish Country Dancing: Alg'h O'Rhythm. Master Engineer: Chris Dixon.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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zip..straight into our 6965 area
gettin near 10516 ..
gettin near 10516 ..
Dentalfloss
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6965 area hit...and bounce
excellent
excellent
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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6980 is supp for a poss pump
prev rez
our 10550 marked on dax
prev rez
our 10550 marked on dax
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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stopped out on dax and ftse
decent run
Dentalfloss
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dax
1 min/2 days of data
1 min/2 days of data
Dentalfloss
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DAX and FTSE should be in supp area
Dentalfloss
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10550 is rez now..could retrace a little...maybe 10500 and break upwards
Dentalfloss
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6965 and 10516. areas.there we are
Dentalfloss
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6965 failure..then 6950
Dentalfloss
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Chart inputs must be ok to my non-p&f view as they are giving zones where something may happen. I use your analysis to backstop my own charts and analysis (hope you don't mind). Thank you for making the effort to post.
if there is a divergence I try and work out why.....
Anyway back to ftse.. strong sp 6950 pending US open. 6950 - 60 area where bulls like to step in (otherwise 6930). Oil/cable and a positive US start makes me think it could go back to 7000 zone.... lets see.
Dentalfloss
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chart inputs..they only give you the area
has the p/f veiw increased your pip count..??
