Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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and a re pump to our 1.2237
excellent
excellent
Dentalfloss
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gbpjpy gone with it
Dentalfloss
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1.2300 area ...a big rez
should test it today
1.2180-1.2194 and 1.2200 needs to hold
should test it today
1.2180-1.2194 and 1.2200 needs to hold
Dentalfloss
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looks like a reasonable area for a swing trade on gbp crosses
mass of rez ..though
mass of rez ..though
Dentalfloss
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dollar index weakening... a tad
elections ..??
GBP ...all the bad news is out for now...??
any thoughts ..??
elections ..??
GBP ...all the bad news is out for now...??
any thoughts ..??
Maddog79er
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Certainly looks like a change in trend...
Atilla
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Positive US data points to continued discussion on another rate hike in December.
I suspect this will add to keeping cable suppressed. So on one side, we may hear positive news from Parliament offering some support to the City and on the other rate hikes.
Tough call. So probably move sideways around PP of 1.22 for now imo.
Having trouble forming an opinion. fwiw favour upside 51%.
I suspect this will add to keeping cable suppressed. So on one side, we may hear positive news from Parliament offering some support to the City and on the other rate hikes.
Tough call. So probably move sideways around PP of 1.22 for now imo.
Having trouble forming an opinion. fwiw favour upside 51%.
Dentalfloss
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dump
Dentalfloss
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drop below 50..00
index might follow
index might follow
Dentalfloss
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50.30 area is supp...there now
bad bounce...bears in
bad bounce...bears in
Dentalfloss
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FTSE into the open
confusion....good for us...
why...???
is it the start of a new downtrend..??
or
is it a new uptrend..?? recoiling to test rez
confusion....good for us...
why...???
is it the start of a new downtrend..??
or
is it a new uptrend..?? recoiling to test rez
Dentalfloss
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DAX into the open
goin anywhere...lol
goin anywhere...lol
Dentalfloss
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SPX into the open
Lilac horizontal is where we got a bull trap just before US open on Friday....soon got taken out
Lilac horizontal is where we got a bull trap just before US open on Friday....soon got taken out
Dentalfloss
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spx...a good one for us
a new downtrend started on 11th OCtober ..ftse and dax also on the same day
all recoiling....is it a dead cat bounce or a new uptrend that started on Thursday afternoon...??
a new downtrend started on 11th OCtober ..ftse and dax also on the same day
all recoiling....is it a dead cat bounce or a new uptrend that started on Thursday afternoon...??
Dentalfloss
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FTSE..a closer look
a dead cat bounce or new uptrend
7K rez on test and retest for the bears
a dead cat bounce or new uptrend
7K rez on test and retest for the bears
Dentalfloss
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CABLE
more about rez
gilts sold off
more about rez
gilts sold off
Dentalfloss
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oil
Dentalfloss
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The Week Ahead - Bullet point highlights: 17 to 21 October 2016
1) Data: It will be a busy week for US, UK and Chinese statistics.
- Inflation data feature in the UK and US, whereby UK CPI and RPI are forecast to rise modestly on the month, but see base effects push up y/y rates to 0.9% from 0.6% and 2.0% from 1.0% respectively, with PPI Output seen up 0.1% m/m for 1.1% y/y vs. Aug 0.8%.
- US headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% m/m, which would see y/y rate up to 1.5% from 1.1%, while core CPI is seen steady at 2.3% y/y.
_ US Industrial Production is forecast to rebound only 0.2% m/m after August's -0.4% m/m, implying Q3 Production rose 0.3% q/q. The first of the October manufacturing surveys via NY and Philly Fed are expected to continue paint a mixed picture for the sector.
- UK labour data are forecast to see a marginal rise in the Claimant Count, no change in Average Earnings (2.3% y/y), but a sharp slowdown in Jun-Aug Employment to 70K (prior +174K), with Vacancies which have been close to all-time highs also requiring attention.
- UK Retail Sales are projected to rebound 0.3% m/m from August's -0.2%, thus sustaining a solid 4.8% y/y rate.
- US Housing data - NAHB, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales - are expected to remain at robust levels, whereby Housing Starts will be most closely watched after an unexpectedly sharp -5.8% drop in August; a 2.7% m/m rebound is expected.
- For China, Q3 GDP is seen holding a steady line at 1.8% q/q 6.7% y/y, while Industrial Production at 6.4% y/y, and Retail Sales at 10.7% are both seen up 0.1 ppt relative to August, as is Jan-Sep Fixed Asset Investment at 8.2%. While large questions remain about the veracity of the data, it would fit with the pick-up in last week's Electricity Consumption data (6.4% y/y), and would also suggest that the August pick-up was more than a correction of the flood hit July data.
2) Central Banks -
- Fed; Ms Yellen struck a decidedly dovish tone in her speech on Friday (http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20161014a.htm), underlining the need for the Fed to allow the
economy to run at a 'high pressure' pace (in terms of employment and inflation), while Mr Dudley erred more towards the centre ground in expecting a rate hike this year. Vice chair Fischer Fed speech on Monday will therfore be watched closely, as well as this week's Beige Book.
- ECB meeting - no changes expected, and the ECB has been very active in ensuring that markets do not get "carried away" (in either direction - i.e. QE extension or QE taper) as they did last year ahead of the December meeting, only to be disappointed. Sources suggest that Draghi will continue to walk a tightrope on this front, much will in any case depend on how the ECB's forecasts are revised in December, with oil prices eminently a key element therein.
- Bank of Canada - rates are seen on hold at 0.50%, though a dovish tone is expected, with particular focus on the assessment of the weakness in non-energy exports, which appeared to be a key concern at the last meeting, along with business investment and slower household spending. Growth forecasts are per se expected to be revised somewhat lower.
- Rates seen on hold in Chile, Indonesia, Mozambique and Paraguay, while Turkey's TCMB is seen narrowing its rate corridor again with a 25 bps cut to its borrowing rate, but keeping other rates on hold, again constrained by persistently high inflation and renewed TRY weakness. Brazil's COPOM is expected to embark on a modest initial 25 bps rate cut to 14.0%, facilitated by some ebbing of inflation pressures, a firmer BRL and fiscal austerity.
3) Politics
- The final presidential TV debate seems unlikely to offer much in the way of fresh insights, though Mrs Clinton will doubtless be hoping for Mr Trump to drop some clangers, post debate polls will be closely watched.
- UK/EU Brexit sparring will remain front and central, the more so given this week's European Council meeting, at which Mrs May will be present for the first time. The Witney by-election result will also be watched closely, though the Conservatives are seen holding Mr Cameron's former sear.
4) US Corporate Earnings pick up markedly this week, while govt bond supply features multi tranche auctions in Slovakia, France and Spain, 10-yr in the UK, 30-yr in Germany and 30-yr TIPS in the U.S.
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
1) Data: It will be a busy week for US, UK and Chinese statistics.
- Inflation data feature in the UK and US, whereby UK CPI and RPI are forecast to rise modestly on the month, but see base effects push up y/y rates to 0.9% from 0.6% and 2.0% from 1.0% respectively, with PPI Output seen up 0.1% m/m for 1.1% y/y vs. Aug 0.8%.
- US headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% m/m, which would see y/y rate up to 1.5% from 1.1%, while core CPI is seen steady at 2.3% y/y.
_ US Industrial Production is forecast to rebound only 0.2% m/m after August's -0.4% m/m, implying Q3 Production rose 0.3% q/q. The first of the October manufacturing surveys via NY and Philly Fed are expected to continue paint a mixed picture for the sector.
- UK labour data are forecast to see a marginal rise in the Claimant Count, no change in Average Earnings (2.3% y/y), but a sharp slowdown in Jun-Aug Employment to 70K (prior +174K), with Vacancies which have been close to all-time highs also requiring attention.
- UK Retail Sales are projected to rebound 0.3% m/m from August's -0.2%, thus sustaining a solid 4.8% y/y rate.
- US Housing data - NAHB, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales - are expected to remain at robust levels, whereby Housing Starts will be most closely watched after an unexpectedly sharp -5.8% drop in August; a 2.7% m/m rebound is expected.
- For China, Q3 GDP is seen holding a steady line at 1.8% q/q 6.7% y/y, while Industrial Production at 6.4% y/y, and Retail Sales at 10.7% are both seen up 0.1 ppt relative to August, as is Jan-Sep Fixed Asset Investment at 8.2%. While large questions remain about the veracity of the data, it would fit with the pick-up in last week's Electricity Consumption data (6.4% y/y), and would also suggest that the August pick-up was more than a correction of the flood hit July data.
2) Central Banks -
- Fed; Ms Yellen struck a decidedly dovish tone in her speech on Friday (http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20161014a.htm), underlining the need for the Fed to allow the
economy to run at a 'high pressure' pace (in terms of employment and inflation), while Mr Dudley erred more towards the centre ground in expecting a rate hike this year. Vice chair Fischer Fed speech on Monday will therfore be watched closely, as well as this week's Beige Book.
- ECB meeting - no changes expected, and the ECB has been very active in ensuring that markets do not get "carried away" (in either direction - i.e. QE extension or QE taper) as they did last year ahead of the December meeting, only to be disappointed. Sources suggest that Draghi will continue to walk a tightrope on this front, much will in any case depend on how the ECB's forecasts are revised in December, with oil prices eminently a key element therein.
- Bank of Canada - rates are seen on hold at 0.50%, though a dovish tone is expected, with particular focus on the assessment of the weakness in non-energy exports, which appeared to be a key concern at the last meeting, along with business investment and slower household spending. Growth forecasts are per se expected to be revised somewhat lower.
- Rates seen on hold in Chile, Indonesia, Mozambique and Paraguay, while Turkey's TCMB is seen narrowing its rate corridor again with a 25 bps cut to its borrowing rate, but keeping other rates on hold, again constrained by persistently high inflation and renewed TRY weakness. Brazil's COPOM is expected to embark on a modest initial 25 bps rate cut to 14.0%, facilitated by some ebbing of inflation pressures, a firmer BRL and fiscal austerity.
3) Politics
- The final presidential TV debate seems unlikely to offer much in the way of fresh insights, though Mrs Clinton will doubtless be hoping for Mr Trump to drop some clangers, post debate polls will be closely watched.
- UK/EU Brexit sparring will remain front and central, the more so given this week's European Council meeting, at which Mrs May will be present for the first time. The Witney by-election result will also be watched closely, though the Conservatives are seen holding Mr Cameron's former sear.
4) US Corporate Earnings pick up markedly this week, while govt bond supply features multi tranche auctions in Slovakia, France and Spain, 10-yr in the UK, 30-yr in Germany and 30-yr TIPS in the U.S.
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
Dentalfloss
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GILTS/ DEC
not lookin happy
knock on for other central banks...?? any thoughts.??
not lookin happy
knock on for other central banks...?? any thoughts.??
