- Digesting presidential 'debate', German Trade and Norway CPI ahead of
India Production in quiet, holiday thinned start to the week; World
Energy Congress also eyed
- German Trade: welcome upturn offers further hint of improving outlook
for manufacturing / export sectors
- Week Ahead: politics and policy outlook likely to trump data; China
Trade & Inflation, US Retail Sales & PPI top stats agenda
- Week Ahead: FOMC minutes, Yellen and Fed/BoE speakers in focus
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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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A very modest schedule of data and events gets the new week under way, with politics likely to be the primary point of discussion rather than economic statistics, with Japan and Canada on holiday, and the US bond market closed for Columbus day. The data schedule amounts to little more than digesting the German Trade data and weaker than expected Norwegian inflation data, ahead of Indian Industrial Production. There was welcome strength in the German Trade data with Exports rising 5.4% m/m comfortably beating forecasts for a 2.2% m/m gain (July -2.6%), and Imports up 3.0% m/m vs. a forecast 0.7% (July -0.7% ), with y/y readings at 9.8% and 5.3% respectively, and per se reinforcing the impression that export demand is starting to improve after a protracted lull. In terms of politics, the second US presidential TV debate overnight was clearly overshadowed by that 'video' of Mr Trump (with the 'Apprentice' producer waring that there are 'far worse' tapes of Trump
http://hill.cm/aBTf4b6), which leaves even more questions about the outcome of the election. Judging by the performance of the Mexican Peso (as so called 'Trumpometer') overnight, which has given up a small portion of its early gains, the debate (or rather personal slagging match) was once again seen as a marginal win for Mrs Clinton. The IMF/World Bank meetings produced nothing more than a standard regurgitation of the call for members countries to use 'all tools' (monetary, fiscal and structural reforms) to boost growth. The latter met with the usual cool response from Mr Schaeuble, who underlined that Germany would not loosen fiscal policy, and even suggested that there had been less talk about fiscal measures than at previous meetings. Comments from Fed's Fischer on September's "close call" on rates should serve to heighten anticipation of the meeting minutes on Wednesday, while ECB's Constancio effectively confirmed that the ECB is walking a tightrope on policy to try and avoid markets moving to anticipate either more easing or indeed a taper, having being taught a harsh lesson in the need to manage expectations in the run-up to and aftermath of last December's ECB meeting. The investigation into and speculation about the GBP's flash crash will inevitably continue, with the record GBP net short in the CFTC's COT data reported on Friday making the move all the more remarkable, but also underlining how badly 'intermediated' the FX market has become, notwithstanding the obvious mitigating factor of the time of occurrence.
from Marc Ostwald