Trading with point and figure

dentist007 said:
watching for supp on those GBP crosses
hopefully...we will catch that falling knife
Click to expand...
no supp showing as yet
if supp holds...should get 200 on gbpjpy and 200 pips on cable
lets see what happens
first move should give 130 pips on cable...ditto on gbpjpy
 
Last edited:
dentist007 said:
watching for supp on those GBP crosses
hopefully...we will catch that falling knife
Click to expand...

Don't trade fx but I've been mesmerised watching cable this morning.... caught the upside in ftse (closed now @7078) and holding on to Nas trade.

Thinking another leg up to 7100 could be in the offing after a breather... cable is being punished remorselessly.... oversold imho.... watch for the swing.
 
spx updated
upside count is now active
2196 poss on the cards

330gz7o.gif
 
ftse and dax should go with it
lets see what happens
we had a bullish bias from the open
decent pullbacks from the pumps aswell
 
US September 2016 Labour report: Ho-hum report underlines solid labour demand, but will not shift divided FOMC opinions

a) Payrolls / Establishment survey - A slightly below forecast 156K rise in Payrolls, with +16K revision to August and a -23K revision to July, still leaves Q3 payrolls on an average monthly gain of 191K, which is well above the breakeven pace. In the detail, Manufacturing jobs were again the weak point at -13K following August's revised -16K, with Transport dipping 9K and Govt down 11K. The latter will get a boost in the coming 2 months related to the election. Construction payrolls also bounced back smartly (+23K) after a 5K dip in August, as did demand for Temporary Help Services.

b) Unemployment Rate / Household Report - An uptick to 5.0% for the Unemployment Rate was due to a relatively large 444K increase in the size of the workforce, while Employment rose 354K; per se this indicates a return of more discouraged workers to the workforce, and enabled an uptick in the Labour Force Participation Rate to 62.9% (from 62.8%). The Underemployment Rate remains relatively high at 9.7%.

c) Average Weekly Hours - back to 34.4 (+0.4% m/m) as expected, however manufacturing hours remain lacklustre, rising just 0.1% m/m after a 0.6% m/m fall in August, which implies Manufacturing Output will post a small gain, though the stronger than expected Auto Sales data suggest Auto assembly rate should provide a boost.

d) Average Hourly Earnings - Basically in line with forecasts with a high 0.2% m/m for 2.6% y/y, which is essentially neutral in terms of the Fed policy debate.

e) Market reaction - after the GBP flash crash drama, a largely 'move along, nothing to see here' report was probably welcome by many in financial markets. Given that the November FOMC meeting is still seen by market participants as 'off limits' for a rate hike, and the next labour report comes after the FOMC meeting, but before the election, today's data would have had to been a mjor surprise to shift market expectations. Attention shifts to the IMF/World Bank meetings and today's run of Fed speakers, ahead of Sunday's second Presidential TV debate, and next week's Sept FOMC minutes and Retail Sales and PPI data.


..........................................................................

Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
 
The Week Ahead - Bullet point highlights: 10 to 14 October 2016

- A relatively busy week for statistics finds its highlights in US Retail Sales and PPI, Chinese Trade, CPI and PPI, German Trade and ZEW, while the UK sees BRC Retail Sales, RICS House Prices and Construction Output, with Japan looking to Machinery orders adn the Economy Watchers Survey.

- The policy side of the equation may well prove more sensitive, as the week kicks off with the second US Presidential TV debate. A close eye will also be kept on the World Energy Congress in Istanbul, which offers the opportunity for OPEC and non-OPEC producers to discuss the still vague details of the OPEC production cap agreement; OPEC alos publishes its monthly Oil Market Report. Fed speakers are plentiful with Yellen making a key note speech at the Boston Fed's annual Economics Conference on Friday, which will be preceded by the September FOMC minutes. As ever, Brexit related developments will also be under the spotlight, with Carney and all 5 BoE deputy governors scheduled to speak at various public events in the Midlands on Friday.

- Rate decisons in Peru, Serbia, South Korea and Uganda are expected to see policy rates left unchanged, while Austrlaiia's RBA publishes its Financial Stability Review.

- The US Q3 earnings season gets underway as ever with Alcoa and the initial batch of banks' reports see JP Morgan Chase among others on Friday. According to Factset "the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -2.1%, which would mark the first time the index has recorded six consecutive quarters of year-over- year declines in earnings since FactSet began tracking the data in Q3 2008."

- Govt bonds: the US bond market (but not equities or commodities) will be closed for Columbus Day on on Monday, adn the US tops the auction schedule with $56.0 Bln of 3, 10 & 30yr Treasuries. The UK sells £850 Mln of 2036 Index-Linked Gilts, while the Eurozone has issuance from 5 countries - Tuesday: Netherlands (10-yr) and Austria (10 & 30-yr); Wednesday: German 30-yr CPI linked Bund; Thursday: Italy and Ireland, with details due on Monday. Japan selsl 5-yr JGBs and Canada sells 2-yr.


..........................................................................

Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
 
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