Trading with point and figure

FTSE 1 min

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bounce off our 2155 supp and 6090 supp
excellent
scalps in and out
dax..bounce off prev rez..excellent
 
Made the most of it! Amazing roller coaster - FTSE on illicit substances today.
I'll be glad when it gets back to normal so I can tend the garden lol
 
morning all - yes a crazy ftse day yesterday, I bailed at 7020 quit happy with myself then sat back in a) amazement as it kept on powering on & b) frustration waiting for a 7k retest!
 
all indices have both upside and downside active counts....good for us = confusion...lol
does supp come in ??? ...or do they drop ??
bears will be waiting in our marked rez areas
 
- Services PMIs and US ADP Employment top relatively busy data agenda;
Conservative Party conference, speeches by BoE Broadbent and Fed's
Lacker top policy agenda as markets fret on ECB outlook; German 10-yr
sale and EIA oil inventories also due

- Eurozone Services PMIs: risks balanced between likely upward revision
to Germany, expected setbacks in Spain and Italy

- U.K. Services PMI: modest slip expected, anecdotal pointers very mixed

- US Non-manufacturing ISM: rebound expected from likely aberrant August
reading, some upside risks

- US ADP Employment: solid, but slightly smaller increase expected, risks
more upside than down

- Charts: US 10-yr yield, VIX vs MOVE volatility, WTI oil future

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The day has plenty of statistical content, topped by the run of Services PMIs and the US ADP employment content. However yesterday's price action in response to stories suggesting that the ECB may be considering a move to start tapering its QE programme, while Fed speakers erred on the side of a further removal of accommodation, serves a reminder that the central bank sponsored asset price bubble only 'has legs' for as long as there is no perceived threat to remove the punchbowl. The latter should at least facilitate a concession for today's 10 yr Bund sale, though a yield of -0.03% is hardly a cause for celebration for financially repressed fund managers. Another unexpected sharp 7 mln bbls drop in the API's weekly crude inventories heightens the focus on weekly EIA version, even if a larger than expected gasoline stocks build implies unseasonably stronger demand from refineries. Still the steady upward push on oil prices imparts an upside risk to the pace at which the downward pull of energy prices on CPI over the past 2 years is unwound, which central banks will be very conscious of in policy risk terms. As the reality of the Brexit referendum now turn to actual action, Mrs May's closing speech to the Conservative Party conference will be closely monitored, though after the run of speeches and briefings in recent days, it will probably offer little in the way of fresh insights, and the divisions in the party over the Brexit process continue to pose a genuine threat. A relatively speech by BoE's normally thoughtful Broadbent offers the other point of context for the UK.

** World - Sept Services PMIs / USA - Sept ADP Employment **
Overnight Services and whole economy PMIs from Asia painted a decidedly mixed picture. For the Eurozone the risks look to be balanced between the likelihood that the German reading may be revised higher, despite a drag from financial services, and political and financial sector uncertainty weighing in Spain and Italy. For the UK the renewed reversal in the Irish Services PMI (56.2 from 59.7) probably offers a more appropriate pointer for the UK Services PMI, than the jump in the UK Manufacturing PMI, though the "strength" seen in the UK Construction PMI (52.3 from 49.2) does suggest that related services sectors should provide a boost, even if financial services will likely be a drag. For the US, the Non-Manufacturing ISM is forecast to recover some of its sharp fall from 55.5 to 51.44, with a bounce to 53.0, with some upside risks given the weakness observed in many August surveys looks to have been aberrant. The Employment Index will naturally be closely watched despite its lack of correlation with official services payrolls data. The ADP Private Employment measure will be of slightly more relevance, with forecasters looking for a slip to 165K from August's 177K, which would appear to be predicated on the softer August Payrolls reading (which if seasonal patterns hold should be revised higher). In underlying trend terms it needs to be borne in mind that even if previous Fed estimates of the breakeven Payrolls growth (i.e. the pace required to keep the Unemployment rate steady) have been revised higher, anything above 120K will still be more than enough to keep the labour market tight at current levels of Unemployment, and the risks look to be modestly to the upside of the consensus.

from Marc Ostwald
 
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