Dentalfloss
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ftse into the open
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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ftse does not have a valid break of downtrend/red
Dentalfloss
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********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Once again the schedule of data and events is modest, featuring US Housing Starts and Building Permits as the only likely statistical market mover, with quarterly earnings from Lennar also fitting into this week's housing theme. Last week's unexpected Hungary ratings upgrade is unlikely to prompt any policy changes from Hungary's central bank, though it will likely hint strongly that it retains an easing bias, by whatever means possible, as it has done for most of the past four years. Elsewhere Nigeria's Finance Minister yesterday argued for a reversal of the previous central bank rate hike, in what was clearly an attempt to lean against an expected further 25 bps rate hike to 14.25% today. The UK launches a new 30-yr benchmark Gilt via way of slightly larger than originally expected £2.5 Bln sale of 1.5% 2047s, which along with the broader G7 trend, has certainly been a contributing factor to the recent steepening of the Gilt curve in the 10/30 yr sector.
** U.S.A. - Aug Housing Starts **
- Following on from yesterday's cyclical high reading for the NAHB Housing Market Index, which also saw strength in all forward looking indicators, attention turns to Housing Starts. Housing Starts are projected to see a modest 1.7% m/m setback to a very robust 1.19 Mln pace, predicated on a correction to the 8.3% m/m surge in the often very volatile 5+ multi-unit component, but still signalling strength. Low levels of inventories are likely to sustain a solid pace of starts and permits throughout the rest of the year, and by extension imply a solid contribution to H2 GDP.
** Japan - BoJ policy decision (updated) **
- The big question: is the biggest risk that the BoJ's policy committee cannot form a majority for any of the policy ideas that have been floated? The consensus looks for no change in rates or in the ¥80 Trln annual Monetary Base target increase. The BoJ has floated so many balloons in terms of what changes it might make as a consequence of its comprehensive review of its QQE policy that there is a great deal of uncertainty about changes might be made. The 2.0% CPI target is expected to be retained, but with a more flexible timeline. There has been plenty of chatter from BoJ sources about a 'reverse twist' operation, and some changes to its ETF purchases are also seen, as well as a rate cut of up to 20 bps. Sources also indicate that there are three different camps on the nine person policy committee, one group (including Kuroda) is said favour a rate cut, another would prefer to increase the QE volume, while a third group would prefer neither. In terms of the reverse twist operation, it is worth noting that the BoJ already owns around 83 of the 2-yr sector (and owns 33% of the JGB market as a whole), so the Finance Ministry will probably need to increase issuance at the front end of the curve (please do not say that 'outright monetary financing' thing! Ed.), to facilitate such operations, though a surge in JPY corporate issuance should also offer some assistance. Q3 issuance is running at JPY 4.0 Trln vs. JPY 1.5 Trln in the same quarter of 2015. Be that as it may, Japan's banks are already struggling to find suitable asset collateral to back their lending in USD due to the US money market reforms, creating a similar problem for them in their domestic market hardly seems a sensible course of action.
from Marc Ostwald
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Once again the schedule of data and events is modest, featuring US Housing Starts and Building Permits as the only likely statistical market mover, with quarterly earnings from Lennar also fitting into this week's housing theme. Last week's unexpected Hungary ratings upgrade is unlikely to prompt any policy changes from Hungary's central bank, though it will likely hint strongly that it retains an easing bias, by whatever means possible, as it has done for most of the past four years. Elsewhere Nigeria's Finance Minister yesterday argued for a reversal of the previous central bank rate hike, in what was clearly an attempt to lean against an expected further 25 bps rate hike to 14.25% today. The UK launches a new 30-yr benchmark Gilt via way of slightly larger than originally expected £2.5 Bln sale of 1.5% 2047s, which along with the broader G7 trend, has certainly been a contributing factor to the recent steepening of the Gilt curve in the 10/30 yr sector.
** U.S.A. - Aug Housing Starts **
- Following on from yesterday's cyclical high reading for the NAHB Housing Market Index, which also saw strength in all forward looking indicators, attention turns to Housing Starts. Housing Starts are projected to see a modest 1.7% m/m setback to a very robust 1.19 Mln pace, predicated on a correction to the 8.3% m/m surge in the often very volatile 5+ multi-unit component, but still signalling strength. Low levels of inventories are likely to sustain a solid pace of starts and permits throughout the rest of the year, and by extension imply a solid contribution to H2 GDP.
** Japan - BoJ policy decision (updated) **
- The big question: is the biggest risk that the BoJ's policy committee cannot form a majority for any of the policy ideas that have been floated? The consensus looks for no change in rates or in the ¥80 Trln annual Monetary Base target increase. The BoJ has floated so many balloons in terms of what changes it might make as a consequence of its comprehensive review of its QQE policy that there is a great deal of uncertainty about changes might be made. The 2.0% CPI target is expected to be retained, but with a more flexible timeline. There has been plenty of chatter from BoJ sources about a 'reverse twist' operation, and some changes to its ETF purchases are also seen, as well as a rate cut of up to 20 bps. Sources also indicate that there are three different camps on the nine person policy committee, one group (including Kuroda) is said favour a rate cut, another would prefer to increase the QE volume, while a third group would prefer neither. In terms of the reverse twist operation, it is worth noting that the BoJ already owns around 83 of the 2-yr sector (and owns 33% of the JGB market as a whole), so the Finance Ministry will probably need to increase issuance at the front end of the curve (please do not say that 'outright monetary financing' thing! Ed.), to facilitate such operations, though a surge in JPY corporate issuance should also offer some assistance. Q3 issuance is running at JPY 4.0 Trln vs. JPY 1.5 Trln in the same quarter of 2015. Be that as it may, Japan's banks are already struggling to find suitable asset collateral to back their lending in USD due to the US money market reforms, creating a similar problem for them in their domestic market hardly seems a sensible course of action.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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6816..ya hummer
scalps in and out
scalps in and out
Dentalfloss
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ftse and dax ..no real break of downtrends as yet
we could pullback
we could pullback
Dentalfloss
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oil
43.50 might dump
index could follow
43.50 might dump
index could follow
Dentalfloss
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oil
Dentalfloss
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in 6822....poss mega rez
Dentalfloss
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spzx has a
pivot area at 2146...ish
pivot area at 2146...ish
Dentalfloss
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oil..gets nasty in 43.40 area..there now
Dentalfloss
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not yet..into swissy 6830
excellent
Scalp s from 6830
Only a few...oil holding?
Could go 6843... take out the stops
Dentalfloss
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its in our 6834 rez..lets see what haapens
Dentalfloss
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oil bouncing off our supp
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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we could move down now
