Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

:cheesy:

 

[Dentalfloss]

The Week Ahead - Bullet point highlights: 19 to 23 September 2016

- Central banks dominate the week, above all the Fed and the Bank of Japan, though there are also rate decisions in Egypt, Ghana, Indonesia, Kenya, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Paraguay, Philippines, South Africa and Turkey (see calendar below). There are a number of ECB speakers throughout the week, and the ECB will conduct the second of its TLTRO operations.

- Fed: no change is expected from current 0.25-0.50%, though there is a strong chance that there will be additional dissenters to Esther George, most probably Loretta Mester. A fresh 'dot plot' is seen lowering the rate trajectory yet again, the question is what happens to the Fed's forecasts (see recap of June 2016 forecasts attached). Friday's CPI data leaves the Fed in a difficult position, with sticky 'core CPI' elements: most notably Housing (OER) 0.3% m/m 3.8% yy/y, Services 0.3% m/m 3.0% y/y/, Medical Care 1.0% m/m 4.9%, which underlines that "low" headline CPI is only due to Food 0.0% y/y & Energy -9.2% y/y, the latter will start to unwind quite rapidly into the end of the year. A September hike cannot be ruled out completely, above all given the fact that a November meeting hike looks to be off the table, given its proximity to the election.

- Bank of Japan - the big question: is the biggest risk that the BoJ's policy committee cannot form a majority for any of the policy ideas that have been floated? Some thoughts on the 'reverse twist' option, in which the BOJ would trim purchases of long duration bonds and increase short duration bonds to alleviate the impact of a further rate cut on banks, can be found here:

(via TipTV earlier).

- Data highlights - in truth not many: flash PMIs, Japan Trade Balance, China Property Prices, UK PSNB, US Housing Starts & Existing Home Sales and Canada CPI & Retail Sales.

- Government bond auctions - a relatively modest week in Eurozone features Belgian 10 & 30-yr and a German 5-yr, while the UK sells a new 2047 Gilt, while the US sells 10-yr TIPS, and there is no supply in Japan due the Monday and Thursday public holidays. Corporate supply likely to be subdued in light of the BoJ and Fed "event risk".

- Politics - Berlin state and Russian Duma elections on Sunday; SPD (24%) and CDU (19%) seen losing ground relative to 2011 (28.3%/23.3% respectively) , AfD seen polling around 14%

..........................................................................

Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International

 

[Dentalfloss]

spx into the open

purple horizontal is our 2150 area
seems to be getting some bulls in
lets see
last signal was bearish

 

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FTSE since 27th July

trends shown
it wants to pump or dump

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax in big supp area
rez marked

 

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cable
in theory...in a supp area

could go anywhere between 1.2875..ish to 1.3000 supp area
a tad oversold
rez areas marked
lets see what happens

 

[Dentalfloss]

eurusd over last 2 months
should be in supp
rez marked

also horizontal supp at 1.1100-1.1115 area

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax
supp/rez marked for the open
we are in a bounce zone..in theory

there is another rez area at 10340-10360

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax into the open
in a potential bounce area/aqua
a close up on prev chart
trends shown
we are in a minor downtrend...lets see if the bulls can turn it round

turns nasty if 10260-10280 becomes rez...10300 possibly

 

[Dentalfloss]

FTSE into the open

if supp holds ?? there is an upside vertical count of 6825 area/target

 

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dax is lagging...but showing a tinge of bullishness
a break above 10310 makes it more bullish/gives us an upside vertical count of 10356 area

spx and ftse have turned...a bit

 

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poss scenario for open tomorrow
if dax holds supp..then others follow on
could be wrong...

 

[Dentalfloss]

http://leavittbrothers.com/pdfs/LB weekly 20160918.pdf

 

[Dentalfloss]

Mornin

 

[Dentalfloss]

obvernight rallies on dax ,spx and ftse
cable and eurusd
we had those support areas marked at the weekend
missed them all....lol

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax is lagging...but showing a tinge of bullishness
a break above 10310 makes it more bullish/gives us an upside vertical count of 10356 area

spx and ftse have turned...a bit

wham...10356 hit

 

[Dentalfloss]

spx into the open

purple horizontal is our 2150 area
seems to be getting some bulls in
lets see
last signal was bearish

wham..straight into our 2150

 

[Dentalfloss]

FTSE into the open

if supp holds ?? there is an upside vertical count of 6825 area/target

straight into our 6774 area

 

[Dentalfloss]

now....do we pullback ??

 

[Dentalfloss]

oil
alot of rez up to 45.00 area