Trading with point and figure

DOW into the open

2 days of data

jrzmac.gif
 
dax and dow ..minor downtrends seem to be broken
this could be a dead cat bounce or a new uptrend
difficult to call
 
oil/wti blew out our marked supp...as we say..it was only a guide
so...no big pips los there and we carrried on taking the sell signals
 
Manufacturing PMIs in focus along with US Construction Spending and Auto
Sales; ECB's Nowotny, Fed's Mester and Dudley speak; UK, France and
Spain to sell bonds

- UK Manufacturing PMI; modest rebound expected; other surveys and Irish
PMI rebound suggest potential for larger bounce

- Us Manufacturing ISM: consensus sees modest slip, focus on Orders,
Prices Paid and Employment indices

- US Auto Sales: seen decelerating vs. July, but underlying pace of sales
still very solid, but below 2015 pace

- Charts: WTI oil future, GBP/Yen, US 10 yr yield, JPM EMBI spread

- ICYMI well worth a read: BIS "Asset managers, eurodollars and
unconventional monetary policy"

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

While the day's schedule is packed out with Manufacturing PMIs, with overnight trade and CPI readings from South Korea and Japanese and Australian Q2 CapEx to digest ahead of US weekly jobless claims, Construction Spending and Auto Sales, all of which will have to spring some surprises to have more than a passing impact, as the vigil ahead of tomorrow's Payrolls continues. On the policy front ECB's Nowotny, and Fed's Dudley and Mester are the day's major central bank speakers, but seem unlikely to offer any genuinely fresh insights into the policy outlook, though it will be interesting to see if Nowotny reprises his previous comments about the ECB possibly discussing a decision on extending the timeline or tapering its QE programme, during Q4. However, with the G20 set to meet at the weekend, the key question is rather whether governments will pay anything other than lip service to calls for more, or at least far more effective and targeted fiscal spending, as scope for central bank policy moves appear to be at exhaustion point. The latter was underlined in ECB's Villeroy de Galhau's comments yesterday that central banks are 'overburdened'. France with a selection of 10 to 30 yr long-dated OATS, Spain with 3, 10 & 30-yr and the uK with a re-opening of next year's benchmark 0.50% 2022 Gilt feature in terms of the govt bond auction calendar. A careful eye also needs to be cast in the direction of the German state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on Sunday, where a shock INSA opinion poll yesterday put the AfD at 23% ahead of the CDU on 20% (vs. 23% at last 2011 state election), with the SPD ahead but also losing ground on 28% (2011: 35.6%) as indeed are Die Linke on 15% (2011: 18.4%); Mrs Merkel appears to be finding herself in ever more troublesome waters

** World - Aug Manufacturing PMIs **
- As is generally the case, many of today's national Manufacturing PMI readings will be more of academic, than market interest. Once the generally improving and/or better than expected China and Asia readings have been digested, the focus in Europe will primarily be on Italy and the UK, ahead of the ISM Manufacturing. As ever French, German and Eurozone readings are expected to be unrevised from their 'flash' readings, thus the key question is whether the Italian PMI holds at the 51.2 19-month low seen in July (vs June 53.5), or registers something of a bounce as has often, but certainly always, been the case after a relatively steep fall. As for the UK, the consensus looks for a small bounce to 49.0, following a steep fall to 48.2 in July from June's probably overstated 52.4, with many seemingly ignoring the point that this PMI had been as low as 49.3 as recently as April. The CBI Industrial Trends survey and other business surveys (such as yesterday's Lloyds Business Barometer) tend to suggest that while there is a lack of confidence due to Brexit related uncertainty, actual business flows have been broadly steady, so there would appear to be scope for a slightly larger rebound, even if the absolute level will likely be lacklustre; the rebound in the equivalent Irish measure also bodes well. As for the US Manufacturing ISM, this has been quite well correlated with the Markit PMI version in recent months, which doubtless predicates forecasts for a modest slip to 52.0 from July's 52.6, notwithstanding a run of regional surveys that have been in many cases considerably weaker than expected, with the exception of the unchanged Philly Fed.

** U.S.A. - August Auto Sales **
- The consensus looks for headline Sales to be around 17.2 Mln SAAR pace vs a stronger than expected 17.77 Mln in July, but still a respective overall pace, but well down on the 17.69 Mln seen in August 2015, and suggesting a modest drag from Autos on overall August Retail Sales. Estimates from industry specialist groups such as JD power LMC Automotive look for a pace around 17.4 Mln.


from Marc Ostwald
 
dentist007 said:
DAX into the open
chart data is for last 3 days

no valid break of uptrend as yet...a pullback so far
supp/rez marked...lets see how it gets handled
still slightly bullish..imho
oil/wti a drag on index yesterday

729kwp.gif
Click to expand...
bullish ...as we marked peropen
now in rez
 
oil/wti should be in a supp area
a decent bounce and index could go with it
lets see what happens
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Michael Carr
  • Article
Equities Technical Analysis Testing Point & Figure Patterns
Replies
0
Views
3K
T2W Bot
T2W Bot
S
Point&Figure
2
Replies
39
Views
7K
subarashi
S
M
Point and Figure
Replies
2
Views
1K
Dentalfloss
Dentalfloss
A
Point and Figure box size for commodities
Replies
4
Views
4K
TWI
TWI
William Rafter
  • Article
Technical Analysis Point & Figure Gone High Tech
Replies
18
Views
8K
GruntnoWay
G
Top