Dentalfloss
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DAX
over last 48 hours
over last 48 hours
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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DOW into the open
1 week of data
lookin reasonably bullish
1 week of data
lookin reasonably bullish
Dentalfloss
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lookin like we test 18480 area/rez
pullback needs to hold 18430..ish
seems to be decent supp in 18400-18420
lets see what happens
pullback needs to hold 18430..ish
seems to be decent supp in 18400-18420
lets see what happens
Dentalfloss
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dax
got a huge line of horizontal rez up to 10780
got a huge line of horizontal rez up to 10780
Dentalfloss
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gbpjpy since 1st August
in rez now
in rez now
Dentalfloss
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gbpjpy
more detail
in the rez zone now
lets see what happens
more detail
in the rez zone now
lets see what happens
Dentalfloss
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oil/wti
broken supp
supp looming
broken supp
supp looming
Dentalfloss
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eurusd
our 1.1130 pivot workin well
lets see if it holds
our 1.1130 pivot workin well
lets see if it holds
Dentalfloss
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cable
Dentalfloss
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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Month end arrives, and as is often the case, statistics office around the globe will be open the sluice gates for a deluge of data, which finds an accompaniment in numerous central bank speakers from around the globe, along with expected no change rate decisions in Brazil and Colombia. Germany again indulges its saver with an offering of zero coupon bonds that are assured to lose investors' money if held to maturity, indeed it has now not issued a new bond in the 2 to 10-yr section of the which pay a coupon since January! On the statistical front it will be a case of digesting production data from Japan and South Korea along with the as ever erratic German Retail Sales, while ahead lie German Unemployment, Eurozone provisional CPI, Q2 GDP from Norway, India, Canada and Brazil, and of course the ADP Employment estimate in the USA, which also sees the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. On the policy front, the day's Fed speakers will be watched closely, with Rosengren headlines sounding very much in line with Fischer and Dudley (i.e. highlighting stength of economy and proximity to Fed targets), while Evans sounds typically dovish, though ostensibly not resistant to the idea of a near-term rate hike.; Kashkari speaks later.
** Eurozone - August CPI **
- Following on from yesterday's lower than expected HICP reading in Germany (-0.1% m/m 0.3% y/y), which was predicated on a fall in food and to a lesser extent Services prices, the risks would appear to be skewed to a lower than expected readings for the Eurozone as a whole. The consensus had looked for headline CPI to edge up to 0.3% from 0.2% y/y, and core CPI to remain unchanged at 0.9% y/y, though the unwind of last year's energy price falls will be sharper in France (HICP in line with forecasts at 0.4% m/m 0.4% y/y) and the Eurozone periphery (e.g. a firmer profile to French petrol prices than in Germany), and could possibly offset that slip in Germany. As attention turns to next week's ECB meeting, this benign profile to current inflation should ensure that the ECB staff forecasts are left unchanged relative to June, and by extension allow Draghi & Co to stick with current policy settings, while maintaining a nominal easing bias.
** U.S.A. - Aug ADP Employment, Chicago PMI; July Pending Home Sales **
- While there is much hullaballoo very month about the US labour data, this week's report does have rather more profound implications. Eminently Fischer's comments last Friday have placed a slightly larger premium than usual, though it should be noted that this is from the perspective that the FOMC is primarily wanting to ensure that there are no immediate or obvious obstacles to a rate hike. Initial Claims for Payrolls survey week were low at 261K, and yesterday's Consumer Confidence survey saw the Labour Differential reach a new cylical high of 2.6 vs. July's 0.9), with regional surveys as ever painting a mixed picture of labour demand. As such the risks are for choice modestly to the upside of the expected 175K for today's ADP estimate. Following a stronger than expected 55.8 in July, today's Chicago PMI is seen drifting down to 54.0, presumably predicated on the weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI, despite this series being notoriously volatile and frequently 'out of sync' with other regional measures and the Manufacturing ISM. Pending Home Sales are seen rising 0.7% m/m, which thanks to base effects would see the y/y rate accelerate to 2.2% from June's 0.3%, a rather better reflection of solid sector trends, underpinned by low mortgage rates, even if relatively low levels of inventories continue to restrain the pace of sales gains.
** Brazil, Canada, India - Q2 GDP **
- This array of Q2 GDP readings will likely highlight wildly different underlying fundamentals in these three countries. Canada's Q2 GDP is seen suffering a sharp hit from the Alberta wildfires disruption to oil production, as well as ongoing weakness in exports, above all to the US, which was all too evident in yesterday's worse than expected Q2 Current Account. The consensus projects a 1.5% q/q SAAR contraction, though the monthly data for June are expected to show a solid 0.5% m/m rebound in June, suggesting solid momentum going into Q3. As yet there is little evidence that the government's much vaunted fiscal spending is offering much of a boost to the economy, even if this typically will take a considerable time to get some traction, and offer a genuine boost to GDP. India remains the G20 growth leader, though like so many economies around the world, weakness in global trade is expected to see net exports weigh on GDP, which is seen slowing to 7.6% y/y from Q1's 7.9% on the GDP measure, though GVA is projected to slow only modestly to 7.3% y/y from 7.4%. As ever the mismatch between monthly Industrial Production (June picked up to 2.1% y/y from May's 1.1%) and the GDP manufacturing measure (Q1 9.3% y/y) will require some scrutiny. Going forward the question is what near-term impact the introduction of the Goods & Services Tax (GST) will have, with the Service sector that accounts for some 60% of GDP seen suffering in the short-run, though benefitting from it in the long run. Last but not least, the tragedy that is Brazil, where Q2 GDP is projected to fall for the sixth consecutive quarter, with the consensus looking for -0.5% q/q (vs. Q1 -0.3% q/q), which thanks to base effects would see the y/y fall slow to -3.7% vs. -5.4% in Q1. Private Consumption is once again expected to contract, as high inflation and the continued rise in Unemployment continue to weigh heavily. Industrial Production has started to pick up from very depressed levels, and should along with Net Exports make a positive contribution, thanks in the main to the slide in the Real. The question is whether there is any sign that Business Investment, which has contracted continuously since Q4 2013, shows any sing of turning around, with some speculating that Rousseff's expected impeachment might have encouraged businesses to take a leap of faith and unlock a large array of shelved projects. That said, Rousseff's removal is far from a panacea for an economy mired in corruption and bureaucracy, which will require very radical structural reforms, the benefits of which will take some years to materialize.
- Busy run of statistics to end month, from Japan & Korea Production,
through Eurozone CPI; Brazil, Canada, & India Q2 GDP to US ADP
Employment estimate, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales; Germany
to auction 2-yr; Fed speakers and rate decisions in Brazil and
Colombia
- Eurozone CPI: lower than expected German reading imparts some downside
risks relative to forecasts, though energy price drag unwind stronger
in France and periphery
- Canada GDP: Q2 seen suffering from Alberta wildfires drag on oil output;
June reading expected to show rebound
- India Q2 GDP: trade expected to continue to weigh, though overall
headline seen slowing only modestly; GST impact key going forward
- Brazil Q2 GDP: unsurprisingly seen remaining mired in recession;
Industrial Production & Exports likely to offset continuing drag
from private consumption
- US ADP Employment: consensus looks for around average gain, anecdotal
evidence implies some modest upside risks
from Marc Ostwald
********************
Month end arrives, and as is often the case, statistics office around the globe will be open the sluice gates for a deluge of data, which finds an accompaniment in numerous central bank speakers from around the globe, along with expected no change rate decisions in Brazil and Colombia. Germany again indulges its saver with an offering of zero coupon bonds that are assured to lose investors' money if held to maturity, indeed it has now not issued a new bond in the 2 to 10-yr section of the which pay a coupon since January! On the statistical front it will be a case of digesting production data from Japan and South Korea along with the as ever erratic German Retail Sales, while ahead lie German Unemployment, Eurozone provisional CPI, Q2 GDP from Norway, India, Canada and Brazil, and of course the ADP Employment estimate in the USA, which also sees the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. On the policy front, the day's Fed speakers will be watched closely, with Rosengren headlines sounding very much in line with Fischer and Dudley (i.e. highlighting stength of economy and proximity to Fed targets), while Evans sounds typically dovish, though ostensibly not resistant to the idea of a near-term rate hike.; Kashkari speaks later.
** Eurozone - August CPI **
- Following on from yesterday's lower than expected HICP reading in Germany (-0.1% m/m 0.3% y/y), which was predicated on a fall in food and to a lesser extent Services prices, the risks would appear to be skewed to a lower than expected readings for the Eurozone as a whole. The consensus had looked for headline CPI to edge up to 0.3% from 0.2% y/y, and core CPI to remain unchanged at 0.9% y/y, though the unwind of last year's energy price falls will be sharper in France (HICP in line with forecasts at 0.4% m/m 0.4% y/y) and the Eurozone periphery (e.g. a firmer profile to French petrol prices than in Germany), and could possibly offset that slip in Germany. As attention turns to next week's ECB meeting, this benign profile to current inflation should ensure that the ECB staff forecasts are left unchanged relative to June, and by extension allow Draghi & Co to stick with current policy settings, while maintaining a nominal easing bias.
** U.S.A. - Aug ADP Employment, Chicago PMI; July Pending Home Sales **
- While there is much hullaballoo very month about the US labour data, this week's report does have rather more profound implications. Eminently Fischer's comments last Friday have placed a slightly larger premium than usual, though it should be noted that this is from the perspective that the FOMC is primarily wanting to ensure that there are no immediate or obvious obstacles to a rate hike. Initial Claims for Payrolls survey week were low at 261K, and yesterday's Consumer Confidence survey saw the Labour Differential reach a new cylical high of 2.6 vs. July's 0.9), with regional surveys as ever painting a mixed picture of labour demand. As such the risks are for choice modestly to the upside of the expected 175K for today's ADP estimate. Following a stronger than expected 55.8 in July, today's Chicago PMI is seen drifting down to 54.0, presumably predicated on the weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI, despite this series being notoriously volatile and frequently 'out of sync' with other regional measures and the Manufacturing ISM. Pending Home Sales are seen rising 0.7% m/m, which thanks to base effects would see the y/y rate accelerate to 2.2% from June's 0.3%, a rather better reflection of solid sector trends, underpinned by low mortgage rates, even if relatively low levels of inventories continue to restrain the pace of sales gains.
** Brazil, Canada, India - Q2 GDP **
- This array of Q2 GDP readings will likely highlight wildly different underlying fundamentals in these three countries. Canada's Q2 GDP is seen suffering a sharp hit from the Alberta wildfires disruption to oil production, as well as ongoing weakness in exports, above all to the US, which was all too evident in yesterday's worse than expected Q2 Current Account. The consensus projects a 1.5% q/q SAAR contraction, though the monthly data for June are expected to show a solid 0.5% m/m rebound in June, suggesting solid momentum going into Q3. As yet there is little evidence that the government's much vaunted fiscal spending is offering much of a boost to the economy, even if this typically will take a considerable time to get some traction, and offer a genuine boost to GDP. India remains the G20 growth leader, though like so many economies around the world, weakness in global trade is expected to see net exports weigh on GDP, which is seen slowing to 7.6% y/y from Q1's 7.9% on the GDP measure, though GVA is projected to slow only modestly to 7.3% y/y from 7.4%. As ever the mismatch between monthly Industrial Production (June picked up to 2.1% y/y from May's 1.1%) and the GDP manufacturing measure (Q1 9.3% y/y) will require some scrutiny. Going forward the question is what near-term impact the introduction of the Goods & Services Tax (GST) will have, with the Service sector that accounts for some 60% of GDP seen suffering in the short-run, though benefitting from it in the long run. Last but not least, the tragedy that is Brazil, where Q2 GDP is projected to fall for the sixth consecutive quarter, with the consensus looking for -0.5% q/q (vs. Q1 -0.3% q/q), which thanks to base effects would see the y/y fall slow to -3.7% vs. -5.4% in Q1. Private Consumption is once again expected to contract, as high inflation and the continued rise in Unemployment continue to weigh heavily. Industrial Production has started to pick up from very depressed levels, and should along with Net Exports make a positive contribution, thanks in the main to the slide in the Real. The question is whether there is any sign that Business Investment, which has contracted continuously since Q4 2013, shows any sing of turning around, with some speculating that Rousseff's expected impeachment might have encouraged businesses to take a leap of faith and unlock a large array of shelved projects. That said, Rousseff's removal is far from a panacea for an economy mired in corruption and bureaucracy, which will require very radical structural reforms, the benefits of which will take some years to materialize.
- Busy run of statistics to end month, from Japan & Korea Production,
through Eurozone CPI; Brazil, Canada, & India Q2 GDP to US ADP
Employment estimate, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales; Germany
to auction 2-yr; Fed speakers and rate decisions in Brazil and
Colombia
- Eurozone CPI: lower than expected German reading imparts some downside
risks relative to forecasts, though energy price drag unwind stronger
in France and periphery
- Canada GDP: Q2 seen suffering from Alberta wildfires drag on oil output;
June reading expected to show rebound
- India Q2 GDP: trade expected to continue to weigh, though overall
headline seen slowing only modestly; GST impact key going forward
- Brazil Q2 GDP: unsurprisingly seen remaining mired in recession;
Industrial Production & Exports likely to offset continuing drag
from private consumption
- US ADP Employment: consensus looks for around average gain, anecdotal
evidence implies some modest upside risks
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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eurusd
f2calv
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Well as its pretty much the end of the month here an update on my first attempt at the fxcm monthly trading competition.
https://www.fxcm.com/uk/why-fxcm/trading-contest/
So my real money account reached 103% this morning. And as you can imagine my account balance was extremely volatile during the month, with a max drawdown of ~20%.
I certainly haven't traded every day nor every opportunity that presented itself, mostly I traded just as an afterthought after opening positions on my main accounts [which have had no-where near as good performance sadly lol].
The current leader is on 2200%+ so yeah I've got some way to go
Anyway August was a taster for me, and tomorrow is a new month so I'll be having another crack at it :smart: (again with a starting balance of £100)
I actually think its a very good trading exercise because of course you have to be ultra-careful and tactical where and when you open positions and cut losses. :idea:
https://www.fxcm.com/uk/why-fxcm/trading-contest/
So my real money account reached 103% this morning. And as you can imagine my account balance was extremely volatile during the month, with a max drawdown of ~20%.
I certainly haven't traded every day nor every opportunity that presented itself, mostly I traded just as an afterthought after opening positions on my main accounts [which have had no-where near as good performance sadly lol].
The current leader is on 2200%+ so yeah I've got some way to go
Anyway August was a taster for me, and tomorrow is a new month so I'll be having another crack at it :smart: (again with a starting balance of £100)
I actually think its a very good trading exercise because of course you have to be ultra-careful and tactical where and when you open positions and cut losses. :idea:
MichaelJohnFX
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Well as its pretty much the end of the month here an update on my first attempt at the fxcm monthly trading competition.
https://www.fxcm.com/uk/why-fxcm/trading-contest/
So my real money account reached 103% this morning. And as you can imagine my account balance was extremely volatile during the month, with a max drawdown of ~20%.
I certainly haven't traded every day nor every opportunity that presented itself, mostly I traded just as an afterthought after opening positions on my main accounts [which have had no-where near as good performance sadly lol].
The current leader is on 2200%+ so yeah I've got some way to go
Anyway August was a taster for me, and tomorrow is a new month so I'll be having another crack at it :smart: (again with a starting balance of £100)
I actually think its a very good trading exercise because of course you have to be ultra-careful and tactical where and when you open positions and cut losses. :idea:
Silly question, but you can't link that with IG can you?
f2calv
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Umm not sure what you mean, link what exactly? Do you mean copy-trade?
MichaelJohnFX
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Nope. As in I'm assume it's linked to your broker's account hence I asked whether you can link it with IG if that makes sense?
f2calv
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Nope. As in I'm assume it's linked to your broker's account hence I asked whether you can link it with IG if that makes sense?
Nope, fxcm is a broker/market-maker in their own right and so it's a competition of all their mini-account customers.
Fxcm [and their mini-accounts] are far more suited to such a competition than IG, for instance in IG the smallest dax position size is £1/point, but on fxcm you can open a position from £0.08/point... so you can participate in their real-money competition with as little as £50 in your real-money account.
NB: If you had an account with both "brokers" you can implement some mirror/copy-trading code whereby you day trade on an fxcm account with a starting balance of £100, and a max initial position size is 1% i.e. £1/point and then behind the scenes whatever you do is replicated to an IG account of a bigger size (and possibly a different risk tolerance).
Its an interesting psychology experiment which I have considered implementing many times whereby you simply don't look at the massive PnL figures in the second account and you just concentrate on making £100 into £200 in a month and you forgo the emotional stress of seeing your bigger account go up and down in value by hundreds each day
...you just have to literally "forget" about the bigger account.
Dentalfloss
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18368- 18384 area is supp
lets see if it holds
lets see if it holds
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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DAX into the open
chart data is for last 3 days
no valid break of uptrend as yet...a pullback so far
supp/rez marked...lets see how it gets handled
still slightly bullish..imho
oil/wti a drag on index yesterday
chart data is for last 3 days
no valid break of uptrend as yet...a pullback so far
supp/rez marked...lets see how it gets handled
still slightly bullish..imho
oil/wti a drag on index yesterday
f2calv
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Could you perchance email me the data file you used for that chart?
