Dentalfloss
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in and out of our 18550 area
excellent
excellent
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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excellenta closer look from the movement from 2nd August
Dentalfloss
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Quick thoughts on Yellen at Jackson Hole - markets really not listening, but risks rising
a) Much the same as we have been hearing from Dudley, Fischer, Mester, Lockhart, Kaplan and the ever hawkish George- case for rate hike has strengthened, due to labour, inflation and CPI data - absolutely no surprise, though it should be noted that the amount of Fed speakers pounding the pavement for a potential Sept rate hike is very notable, much higher than would normally be associated with a more cerebral symposium on long-term perspectives for monetary policy. I would also suggest that it is becoming increasingly clear that among the Triumvirate that runs the FOMC (chair, vice-chair and NY Fed president), Yellen is clearly playing second fiddle to Fischer and Dudley - this is unusual. Markets have nevertheless ignored this and now imply a 24/26% chance of a Sept rate move vs. 32% this morning, with December at 54.6% vs. 57.4% this morning.
b) On the longer-term aspects of the Fed's monetary policy toolkit - Yellen keen to refute the idea that the cupboard is not bare / empty if the Fed should need to ease policy in the face of a new downturn, underlining that more QE with a wider asset base would be a key element, as (laughably) would 'forward guidance'. Interestingly markets appear to have omitted to note the contingency of "a renewed downturn", and 'jumped for joy' at 'more QE' talk. Yellen also said that GDP targeting and a higher inflation target would be important research topics. Interesting to note that Fed 'newbies' like Mester highlighting Fed's poor communications, which may be the most immediate point of focus for their efforts.
c) Admittedly hardly inspiring stuff, and markets clearly still very sceptical given perennial 'back and switch' moves of the past 18 months; the risk remains that Fed speakers will continue to berate markets over the next two weeks, clearly hoping to get the Sept probability at or above 50%. They are more than aware that their biggest operational risk is that not moving in September, would leave them having to wait until December, by which time Q3 GDP could easily turn out at 3.5% and headline CPI could be 2.0% y/y, and the Unemployment Rate as low as 4.5%, and they would de facto be way behind the curve. If they want to be gradual, they really do need to hike rates 25 bps in September.
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
a) Much the same as we have been hearing from Dudley, Fischer, Mester, Lockhart, Kaplan and the ever hawkish George- case for rate hike has strengthened, due to labour, inflation and CPI data - absolutely no surprise, though it should be noted that the amount of Fed speakers pounding the pavement for a potential Sept rate hike is very notable, much higher than would normally be associated with a more cerebral symposium on long-term perspectives for monetary policy. I would also suggest that it is becoming increasingly clear that among the Triumvirate that runs the FOMC (chair, vice-chair and NY Fed president), Yellen is clearly playing second fiddle to Fischer and Dudley - this is unusual. Markets have nevertheless ignored this and now imply a 24/26% chance of a Sept rate move vs. 32% this morning, with December at 54.6% vs. 57.4% this morning.
b) On the longer-term aspects of the Fed's monetary policy toolkit - Yellen keen to refute the idea that the cupboard is not bare / empty if the Fed should need to ease policy in the face of a new downturn, underlining that more QE with a wider asset base would be a key element, as (laughably) would 'forward guidance'. Interestingly markets appear to have omitted to note the contingency of "a renewed downturn", and 'jumped for joy' at 'more QE' talk. Yellen also said that GDP targeting and a higher inflation target would be important research topics. Interesting to note that Fed 'newbies' like Mester highlighting Fed's poor communications, which may be the most immediate point of focus for their efforts.
c) Admittedly hardly inspiring stuff, and markets clearly still very sceptical given perennial 'back and switch' moves of the past 18 months; the risk remains that Fed speakers will continue to berate markets over the next two weeks, clearly hoping to get the Sept probability at or above 50%. They are more than aware that their biggest operational risk is that not moving in September, would leave them having to wait until December, by which time Q3 GDP could easily turn out at 3.5% and headline CPI could be 2.0% y/y, and the Unemployment Rate as low as 4.5%, and they would de facto be way behind the curve. If they want to be gradual, they really do need to hike rates 25 bps in September.
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
Dentalfloss
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Quick addendum: very interesting choppy shift on Fed Sept/Dec probabilities - at first markets did drive Sept down from 32 to 23%, this is now 30%, and Dec was down from 57% to 53% and is now 58% - perhaps this a case of l-t players sitting out algo noise and then making their moves????" Table attached
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ADM Investor Services International Limited is authorised and regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Member of The London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 4th Floor Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4V 3TT. Registered in England No. 2547805. ADM Investor Services International Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland (UK) Limited in the UK and indirectly, is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Archer Daniels Midland Company. Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, CFDs, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value, investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested, and indeed may incur additional liabilities. These Investments may entail above average financial risk of loss, and investors should therefore carefully consider whether their financial circumstances and investment experience permit them to invest and, if necessary, seek the advice of an independent Financial Advisor. Some services described are not available to certain customers due to regulatory constraints either in the United Kingdom or elsewhere.
Investments in futures, options and foreign exchange can fluctuate in value, investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested, and indeed may incur additional liabilities. Investments in futures, options and foreign exchange entail above average risk, investors should therefore carefully consider whether their financial circumstances permit them to invest and, if necessary, seek the advice of an Independent Financial Advisor. Some services described are not available to all investors. Services may also not be available to certain customers due to legal and/or regulatory constraints either in the United Kingdom or elsewhere. The contents of this electronic mail may have been changed without the knowledge of the sender. ADM Investor Services International Limited (‘ADMISI’) does not, and will not, consider itself legally bound by the contents of any electronic mail which appears to have originated from within the Company. If you believe you have been sent an e-mail from ADMISI which is inappropriate, please contact the Compliance Department on 44 (0) 20 7716 8000. ADMISI is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority on any electronic site / platform / website and is a member of The London Stock Exchange. In the event that this electronic mail has been sent from Reef Capital LLP, please note the Officers and Representatives of Reef Capital LLP are authorised and regulated under the auspices of ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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Dentalfloss
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our rex araes om dax and dow workin very well
Dentalfloss
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our 1.1350 rez area on eurusd marked at the beginiing of the week workin well
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dax now in our supp area
stops tight
stops tight
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dow..stops tight
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excellent...
now...the bounce
now...the bounce
Dentalfloss
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dow in supp
18358 area
18358 area
Dentalfloss
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chart
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18400 first stop
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wham...
stops tightened
Dentalfloss
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dax bounced with it..from our marked supp area
excellent
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lookin a tad oversold....imho
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According to Robert Mchugh/technical analyst
Eurostoxx 50 index showing signs of trouble..possible contagion ro other index
The only thing i could find is that it is in a rez area...but not from the main reaction area /red trendline
but from Lilac...In theory...not so important
Eurostoxx 50 index showing signs of trouble..possible contagion ro other index
The only thing i could find is that it is in a rez area...but not from the main reaction area /red trendline
but from Lilac...In theory...not so important
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Dentalfloss
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another possible scenario
it broke the downtrend/red...now its putting on a fake
we will watch reactios at rez areas
it broke the downtrend/red...now its putting on a fake
we will watch reactios at rez areas
Dentalfloss
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DAX into the open
