Trading with point and figure

dentist007 said:
DOW
gone a tad bearish

2reqzie.gif
Click to expand...
trend supp 18408-18420 area
 
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

There is finally some flesh on the bone of today's statistical schedule, which includes Germany's Ifo survey, trade data from Hong Kong (which will be examined for flows to/from China), the UK CBI Distributive Trades survey, while the US has Durable Goods Orders, weekly Jobless Claims and the KC Fed Manufacturing survey. The rest of the calendar is thin as the KC Fed Jackson Hole Symposium gets under way, with a speech by ECB's Knot and the US 7-yr auction being the only other items. The latter follows a record indirect bid allocation at the 5-yr auction of 68.7%, against a recent average of 60.3%, which left the Street allocation at 25.1%, somewhat short of the recent 32.3% average. A couple of charts to mull, firstly a comparison of governments contingent pension liabilities as a percentage of GDP, which looks especially ugly for the European members of the G7, and while Poland's position is worst on the chart, its underlying trend growth rate profile is much better than its western European brethren. The other is the CPB World Exports Index, which highlights that export growth has only been worse than current levels in 2000 and 2008.

** Europe - Aug German Ifo Business Climate / UK CBI Distributive Trades survey **
- It is probably safe to assume that today's run of survey data will have to spring some surprises to have anything more than a passing impact. A mixed set of German PMIs offers few genuine pointers for the Ifo survey, which is forecast to edge up very fractionally relative to July, with the sectoral breakdown probably the more interesting aspect. July saw a marked pick-up in for Manufacturing in current terms, but a drop on the outlook; Wholesale fell on both counts, while Retail rose on both. The overall level of the headline Business Climate remains close to 2-yr highs, and per se continue to point to a 2016 GDP pace around 2.0%. Even the doom and gloomsters on the near-term UK economic outlook have had to concede that retail Spending has little if any impact from the Brexit referendum, even if the question of who is spending is open, with plenty of evidence of a boost from tourism; in the short-term that is by the by, and as such expectations for today's CBI Retailing Reported Sales look for a sharp bounce to 0 from -14, though still below May's +7 and June's +4. It should of course be added that this is a highly erratic and volatile series, and the comparison is with the same month a year ago +24), rather than prior month.

** U.S.A. - July Durable Goods Orders / August Markit Services PMI **
- Relative to the ostensible optimism of recent months in the Manufacturing ISM and some other sector surveys, Durable Goods Orders have proved to be disappointing; however as with many measures of output and demand, this may well reflect the deficiencies of using money GDP / value measures, when the tornado of the technological revolution is blowing through the global economy. Be that as it may, the consensus looks for aircraft orders to rebound sharply, and by extension headline Orders are seen up 3.4% m/m after a 3.9% m/m fall in June; that said, the ex-Transport measure is seen reversing June's -0.4% m/m with a +0.4%. As for the CapEx proxy that is Non-defence Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft, forecasters looks for +0.2% m/m after June's +0.4%, which on the one hand would be the first back to back m/m rises since Sept/Oct 2015, but on the other hand follows April's -0.9% and May's -0.6% m/m. As previously noted, the Markit Services PMI (last 51.4) has suggested a much weaker sector profile than the much better established Non-manufacturing ISM (last 55.5), and is expected to edge higher to 51.8 following virtually unchanged readings since May. Initial Claims are also due, with little change expected at 265K after last week's 262K, which would be the ninth week sub-270K and per se underlining a solid pace of labour demand.


from Marc Ostwald
 
dax and dow
excellent movement from dow supp area
gbpjpy and cable...decent movement from our supp areas we marked earlier
 
dax
trend is up
recoiling with a intermed downtrend
last signal was bearish
should be decent support above 10400
lets see what hapeens before and after Yellen speech at 3pm/UK
 
from that chart
last signal was bullish
biggish horizontal supp area at 10462-10481
trend rez at 10500 area/red
trend supp area/green marked
bulls need to keep it above 10400..ish
 
Lilac horizontal...my own propietary technique...found on a litre bottle of Peroni..lol

quite often...you find supp/rez in an area where a 3 box column reverses
 
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