Dentalfloss
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no sign of a top..care with shorts
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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turns nasty if 10620 is rez
10600 supp and then 10580 area
oil/wti in big rez 45.00 on nymex V6/44.25 on wti Sept
spx stuck at pivotal pivots rez at 2188
10600 supp and then 10580 area
oil/wti in big rez 45.00 on nymex V6/44.25 on wti Sept
spx stuck at pivotal pivots rez at 2188
MichaelJohnFX
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Similar sort of areas -
10706-10697
10680-10676
10635
Watch for any false breaks of 10737.
10706-10697
10680-10676
10635
Watch for any false breaks of 10737.
Dentalfloss
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nymex V6
the rez will correspond to 44 area wti sept
the rez will correspond to 44 area wti sept
Dentalfloss
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really careful with shorts on dax
its pretty bullish
despite mega rez
its pretty bullish
despite mega rez
Dentalfloss
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there is an active upside count of 10800
Dentalfloss
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chart is 5 min data
no sign of a top
we might pullback at the open for a bull test...supp should come in...in theory
no sign of a top
we might pullback at the open for a bull test...supp should come in...in theory
Dentalfloss
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active count on these inputs of 10880
Dentalfloss
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there are no neagative vertical counts as yet
Dentalfloss
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DOW..nowt negative..as yet
Dentalfloss
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18600 break...then 18576
tinge negative on charty..just pulling back from rez...so far
tinge negative on charty..just pulling back from rez...so far
Dentalfloss
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1.2920-1.2937 supp area on cable..lets see if it holds
1.2960 from other day ..also
1.2960 from other day ..also
Dentalfloss
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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
So to end the week, there is a veritable plethora of economic statistics from around the world, featuring the monthly growth data from China overnight, Q2 GDP and Inflation readings in continental Europe, some likely very downbeat Construction Output data from the UK, Indian CPI and Industrial Production, though pride of place will likely go to US Retail Sales, which is accompanied by PPI, Michigan Sentiment and Business Inventories. A close eye will continue to be kept on the sharp rebound in oil prices, on the back of the Saudi Energy Minister's suggestion that there might be a discussion about measures to support oil prices at the IEF forum in Algeria in September, even though this sounds like the all too familiar preamble to the oil producer meetings earlier in the year, and still appears unlikely to result in any agreement, given the gaping chasm in political terms between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and indeed the ostensible lack of interest from Russia to have a serious discussion about any such measures.
** China - July Industrial Production, Retail Sales, FAI **
- While the flooding will have had some impact on the July readings for the Chinese economy, the across the board weakness in today's readings is still symptomatic of an underlying slowdown, which is above all disappointing given the volume of fiscal and monetary stimulus that has been put in place. The likelihood of additional measures, latest by September, looks to be high, though as previously noted, this will probably take the form of targeted credit easing and further fiscal measures, rather than a rate cut, given the easing of disinflationary pressures evident in this week's PPI data. The key weakness remains Fixed Asset Investment (much weaker than expected at 8.1% y.t.d. vs. prior 9.0%), above all the paltry level of Private Investment. However two things need to be born in mind, firstly that vicarious investment in capital intensive productive capacity at a time when there is a need to reduce overcapacity in a number of industrial sectors would in fact be foolish, and self-defeating. Secondly this weakness is part of a broader global phenomenon, only some of which can be attributed to uncertainty relating to the global economic outlook and / or geo-political tensions. A key factor remains that demand for capital is much reduced due to the 'technological revolution', which is rapidly bringing down the costs of production as well as being much less capital intensive relative to prior 'industrial revolutions', and underlines that money based measures of growth are per se rather deficient in painting a true picture of growth. The latter also underlines the point that increased infrastructure spending (be it in China or around the world) needs to focus above all on Education and retraining the workforce to have the skills that meet the needs of the Technological revolution.
** Europe - Q2 GDP **
- Today is a case of filling some detail on the preliminary Eurozone and smattering of national readings two weeks, with particular focus Italy, Portugal and Greece, but also on the larger CEE economies, Poland and Hungary, whose Q2 readings are both expected to rebound by 1.0% q/q after stalling in Q1 following broad based strength in 2015. As such there is an element of role reversal, though the data will be seen as rather historical, in the sense that they are unlikely to have material impact on ECB, NBP or MNB policy in H2 2016, which will be far more contingent on how Q3 pans out, both in growth and CPI terms, which for the time being appears unclear, though Poland does seem most likely to see a very solid pace of output in H2. In terms of the German Q2 GDP, which saw a better than expected 0.4% q/q vs. a forecast of 0.2% q/q and Q1's 0.7% q/q: first of all it beggars belief that forecasters were looking for just 0.2%, when the advance Eurozone reading was 0.3% q/q and France posted a flat q/q reading. Unsurprisingly, though without specific statistical details (to be published with the first revision), the key contributors to growth were Private Consumption and Govt Spending, with a modest contribution from Net Exports (Exports up, Imports down q/q), while Investment Spending continued to act as a drag. Overall it suggests that 2016 GDP is potentially on course for a reading closer to 2.0% y/y, though much will depend on how the run of terror attacks impinges on consumer spending, even if construction spending led by the government, and related to the massive influx of refugees/migrants should continue to be a key driver of growth in H2.
** U.S.A. - Retail Sales, PPI **
- As was well documented in the advance Q2 GDP, consumer spending has picked up sharply after a very sluggish Q1, and was the mainstay of the economy during the quarter. The question is whether this will be sustained in Q3, with today's Retail Sales eminently a key data point. Headline Retail Sales are expected to slow from June's very robust 0.6% m/m headline and 0.7% core readings, to 0.4% m/m on headline and ex-Autos & Gasoline, with Auto Sales leading the way, while falling gasoline prices act as something of a drag; overall this would confirm an ongoing solid profile to consumer spending. The risks would appear to be that the much stronger than expected pace of Auto Sales give a bigger boost to headline sales (though the read across from the monthly auto sector data to the Autos sub-component of Retail Sales is often a poor one), while the ca $0.20 gasoline price fall is more of a drag, with the wildcards again likely to be Apparel and Household Goods/Garden Equipment, which have been both volatile and subject to some sharp revisions in recent months. Following on from yet another higher than expected Import Price reading (+0.1% m/m vs. expected -0.4%, and with June revised up to 0.6% m/m from 0.2%), the risks would appear to be the upside for today's PPI data, with the consensus looking for a 0.1% m/m 0.2% y/y headline and 0.2% m/m 1.2% y/y ex-Food & Energy. The Import Price rise was the more remarkable given that Petroleum prices fell 3.6% m/m while non-petroleum rose a sturdy 0.5%, paced above all by Food, Feed & Drink, though the latter seems likely to be less of a factor within PPI, in so far as Agricultural Export Prices registered a 0.4% m/m fall. While Fed's Powell and some other FOMC members appear determined to see inflation well above 2.0% before hiking rates again, further upside surprises should serve as something of a wake-up call. While we do not think much of the Michigan Sentiment survey (preferring the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence), the survey can move markets, and after another fall in the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, which is quite well correlated, the risk would appear to be the downside of the expected rebound to 91.5 from July's final 90.0, despite the fact that the Michigan survey has traditionally been boosted by rising equity markets.
from Marc Ostwald
********************
So to end the week, there is a veritable plethora of economic statistics from around the world, featuring the monthly growth data from China overnight, Q2 GDP and Inflation readings in continental Europe, some likely very downbeat Construction Output data from the UK, Indian CPI and Industrial Production, though pride of place will likely go to US Retail Sales, which is accompanied by PPI, Michigan Sentiment and Business Inventories. A close eye will continue to be kept on the sharp rebound in oil prices, on the back of the Saudi Energy Minister's suggestion that there might be a discussion about measures to support oil prices at the IEF forum in Algeria in September, even though this sounds like the all too familiar preamble to the oil producer meetings earlier in the year, and still appears unlikely to result in any agreement, given the gaping chasm in political terms between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and indeed the ostensible lack of interest from Russia to have a serious discussion about any such measures.
** China - July Industrial Production, Retail Sales, FAI **
- While the flooding will have had some impact on the July readings for the Chinese economy, the across the board weakness in today's readings is still symptomatic of an underlying slowdown, which is above all disappointing given the volume of fiscal and monetary stimulus that has been put in place. The likelihood of additional measures, latest by September, looks to be high, though as previously noted, this will probably take the form of targeted credit easing and further fiscal measures, rather than a rate cut, given the easing of disinflationary pressures evident in this week's PPI data. The key weakness remains Fixed Asset Investment (much weaker than expected at 8.1% y.t.d. vs. prior 9.0%), above all the paltry level of Private Investment. However two things need to be born in mind, firstly that vicarious investment in capital intensive productive capacity at a time when there is a need to reduce overcapacity in a number of industrial sectors would in fact be foolish, and self-defeating. Secondly this weakness is part of a broader global phenomenon, only some of which can be attributed to uncertainty relating to the global economic outlook and / or geo-political tensions. A key factor remains that demand for capital is much reduced due to the 'technological revolution', which is rapidly bringing down the costs of production as well as being much less capital intensive relative to prior 'industrial revolutions', and underlines that money based measures of growth are per se rather deficient in painting a true picture of growth. The latter also underlines the point that increased infrastructure spending (be it in China or around the world) needs to focus above all on Education and retraining the workforce to have the skills that meet the needs of the Technological revolution.
** Europe - Q2 GDP **
- Today is a case of filling some detail on the preliminary Eurozone and smattering of national readings two weeks, with particular focus Italy, Portugal and Greece, but also on the larger CEE economies, Poland and Hungary, whose Q2 readings are both expected to rebound by 1.0% q/q after stalling in Q1 following broad based strength in 2015. As such there is an element of role reversal, though the data will be seen as rather historical, in the sense that they are unlikely to have material impact on ECB, NBP or MNB policy in H2 2016, which will be far more contingent on how Q3 pans out, both in growth and CPI terms, which for the time being appears unclear, though Poland does seem most likely to see a very solid pace of output in H2. In terms of the German Q2 GDP, which saw a better than expected 0.4% q/q vs. a forecast of 0.2% q/q and Q1's 0.7% q/q: first of all it beggars belief that forecasters were looking for just 0.2%, when the advance Eurozone reading was 0.3% q/q and France posted a flat q/q reading. Unsurprisingly, though without specific statistical details (to be published with the first revision), the key contributors to growth were Private Consumption and Govt Spending, with a modest contribution from Net Exports (Exports up, Imports down q/q), while Investment Spending continued to act as a drag. Overall it suggests that 2016 GDP is potentially on course for a reading closer to 2.0% y/y, though much will depend on how the run of terror attacks impinges on consumer spending, even if construction spending led by the government, and related to the massive influx of refugees/migrants should continue to be a key driver of growth in H2.
** U.S.A. - Retail Sales, PPI **
- As was well documented in the advance Q2 GDP, consumer spending has picked up sharply after a very sluggish Q1, and was the mainstay of the economy during the quarter. The question is whether this will be sustained in Q3, with today's Retail Sales eminently a key data point. Headline Retail Sales are expected to slow from June's very robust 0.6% m/m headline and 0.7% core readings, to 0.4% m/m on headline and ex-Autos & Gasoline, with Auto Sales leading the way, while falling gasoline prices act as something of a drag; overall this would confirm an ongoing solid profile to consumer spending. The risks would appear to be that the much stronger than expected pace of Auto Sales give a bigger boost to headline sales (though the read across from the monthly auto sector data to the Autos sub-component of Retail Sales is often a poor one), while the ca $0.20 gasoline price fall is more of a drag, with the wildcards again likely to be Apparel and Household Goods/Garden Equipment, which have been both volatile and subject to some sharp revisions in recent months. Following on from yet another higher than expected Import Price reading (+0.1% m/m vs. expected -0.4%, and with June revised up to 0.6% m/m from 0.2%), the risks would appear to be the upside for today's PPI data, with the consensus looking for a 0.1% m/m 0.2% y/y headline and 0.2% m/m 1.2% y/y ex-Food & Energy. The Import Price rise was the more remarkable given that Petroleum prices fell 3.6% m/m while non-petroleum rose a sturdy 0.5%, paced above all by Food, Feed & Drink, though the latter seems likely to be less of a factor within PPI, in so far as Agricultural Export Prices registered a 0.4% m/m fall. While Fed's Powell and some other FOMC members appear determined to see inflation well above 2.0% before hiking rates again, further upside surprises should serve as something of a wake-up call. While we do not think much of the Michigan Sentiment survey (preferring the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence), the survey can move markets, and after another fall in the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, which is quite well correlated, the risk would appear to be the downside of the expected rebound to 91.5 from July's final 90.0, despite the fact that the Michigan survey has traditionally been boosted by rising equity markets.
from Marc Ostwald
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Friday morning, late start for me.
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Trend supp @ 680 area heading there now maybe.
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Or not!! lol
I wish! I also wish it would become a two way street as I would love to short with conviction - a matter of time but just playing the levels atm.
timsk
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. . . Personally, watching price bob about in a 40 point range for five hours is my idea of hell!
Yesterday was a luverly day IMO, nice swings with good momentum. If every day was like that, I'd be a very happy bunny. By contrast, this morning is another of those days where the Dax has spent three hours in a 40 point range. They say you're only as good as your weakest link and the weakest link in my trading plan is dealing with tight ranges. I've yet to find a solution that enables me to trade them (or not) that works for me.
So, I'm interested to hear how you chaps handle them? Do you sit on your hands and wait for a breakout, or do you try and scalp for a few points here and there? Or perhaps you go in search of other instruments that are motoring? Any ideas and feedback much appreciated.
Tim.
Dentalfloss
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