Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
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Dentalfloss
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bulls need to keep it above 18500
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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divisions at BoJ, UK Visa Consumer Spending; awaiting Eurozone Sentix
index and US Labour Market Conditions Index and Trump speech on economy
- China Trade: once again disappointing, likely to revive US complaints re
CNY fall; commodity trade data highlight very divergent trends
- Week Ahead: China, US and UK data dominate; RBNZ expected to cut rates;
BoK and RBI seen holding, but dovish; US to sell 3, 10 & 30-yr
- Tables: China Commodities Trade / Factset S&P500 Earnings Scorecard
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A busy week for US and Chinese statistics kicks off with a relatively modest daily schedule, whereby the highlights are likely to have been the overnight items: a) Fed's Powell comments on secular stagnation and his very dovish leaning on rates due to inflation; b) the BoJ summary of the hefty divisions on the policy at its July meeting; c) Chinese Trade data; d) a surprisingly sharp rebound in the Japanese Economy Watchers (services) survey; e) the rebound in the UK Visa Consumer Spending data, and f) a slightly better than expected rise in German Industrial Production. Ahead lies the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence, and rather more significantly the US Labour Market Conditions Index, which will extend last month's rebound in a rather more emphatic fashion after Friday's labour data, with a further smattering of corporate earnings, and a speech by Mr Trump on economic policy. The fresh all-time high in the S&P500 on Friday, and a firm tone in overnight Asian equity markets is a reminder, if one is needed, that this era of financial repression continues to force investors to desperately search for income and returns, whatever their risk parameters, and per se all too often defy any ostensible headwinds from economic and policy fundamentals, and atrocious market liquidity conditions, currently exacerbated by the summer holiday season.
The China Trade data underline the ongoing headwinds to its exports (somewhat weaker than expected), but this is hardly news or unexpected, with the Imports and commodity trade data offering the more interesting items. Overall imports defied forecasts of a slightly slower pace of decline with a 12.5% y/y fall in USD terms, or 10.5% y/y in Yuan terms, which can hardly be largely attributed to what was mixed profile to Imports, indeed in country breakdown terms, the sharp acceleration in the fall in Imports from the US down 23.2% y/y, vs. June's -12.7% will likely catch the eye of US politicians, and prompt complaints about the fall in the CNY. Export wise the sharpest falls in % (rather than volume terms) were to beleaguered EM economies, above all Brazil and South Africa. On the commodity side of the equation, the agricultural imports (above all the fall in soybean and rise in rice) would seem to reflect the Chinese penchant for trading, with rice prices having fallen sharply since May, while the slide in Soybeans a function of the Q2 rally, with the steep July price fall likely to see a rebound in coming months. As for Iron & Steel, the rebound in Iron Ore Imports (overall second highest monthly reading in volume terms) will be something of a salve for a roller coaster market price, while the persistent rise in Steel Exports will only heighten complaints about dumping, and does raise questions about how much output has really being cut. Last but certainly not least, energy sector data highlight continued strength in imports of Crude (net 12.5% y/y y.t.d.) and NatGas (19.6% y/y y.t.d.), but the collapse in Refined Products imports and a the ongoing surge in Refined Products Exports (46.3% y/y y.t.d.) will likely serve to temper the nascent rally in Crude prices.
The UK Visa Consumer Spending report serves as a timely reminder that the UK economy has certainly not stalled post Brexit, though in fairness to the BoE, it did stress that the headwinds to consumer spending are only likely to materialize with a lag. However it does imply that the July BRC Retail Sales data tonight should be rather better than the expected fall to -0.7% y/y from June's -0.5%. As for the Japan Economy Watchers survey rebound, this effectively reverses all of June's fall, and the latter now looks a very quirky outlier. Perhaps the more salient point is that the indices are still well below their December through February levels.
In terms of the week's statistical agenda, Chinese inflation data are expected to diverge once again, with CPI seen slipping to 1.8% from 1.9% y/y, while energy related base effects and a weaker CNY are expected to see PPI fall at the slowest pace (2.0% y/y) since September 2014, which suggests that any PBOC easing moves are likely to focus more on credit channels, rather than a rate cut. Retail Sales (f'cast 10.5% y/y vs. June 10.6%) and Industrial Production (seen unchanged at 6.2% y/y) seem unlikely to generate much reaction, particularly given a disconnect between official data and microeconomic readings gleaned from corporate and other reports. For the US, the focus will primarily be on Retail Sales, which are expected to slow from June's very robust 0.6% m/m headline and 0.7% core readings, to 0.4% m/m on headline and ex-Autos & Gasoline, with Auto Sales leading the way, while falling gasoline prices act as something of a drag; overall this would confirm an ongoing solid profile to consumer spending. PPI and Import Prices will see some drag from energy prices and are seen little changed in y/y terms as a result. Last but not least June Jolts Jobs Openings are forecast to bounce to 5.675 Mln from May's sharp fall to the 2016 low of 5.5 Mln, in other words echoing Payrolls in terms of underlining that May was an outlier. In the UK, Manufacturing Output for June is seen posting a further 0.2% m/m fall (May -0.5%), though the consensus forecast looks to be nothing more than an extrapolation from the advance Q2 GDP data for the sector, and the falls are more a function of unwinding April's outlier gain, than a de facto reflection of Brexit related caution.
Otherwise New Zealand's RBNZ is seen cutting rate a further 25bps to a fresh record low of 2.0%, justified by very low levels of inflation and trying to push against NZD strength, and ignoring an extraordinarily overheated housing market, which it continues to try to curb via macro-prudential means. India's RBI and South Korea's BoK are both seen on hold, but likely to sound relatively dovish, with the RBI looking to see how the monsoon season impacts food prices, and the impact of the Goods & Sales Tax (GST) on price formation in the medium-term. On the political front, Trump 's speech on economic policy today will be closely examined, but the question and speculation remains about whether he will quit. The US dominates a seasonally modest run of Government debt auctions, with Germany and Austria selling 10-yr debt, while the UK sells a 20-yr Index-Linked Gilt. Oil markets have monthly outlook reports due from EIA, IEA and OPEC, and Corporate Earnings reports remain plentiful.
from Marc Ostwald
index and US Labour Market Conditions Index and Trump speech on economy
- China Trade: once again disappointing, likely to revive US complaints re
CNY fall; commodity trade data highlight very divergent trends
- Week Ahead: China, US and UK data dominate; RBNZ expected to cut rates;
BoK and RBI seen holding, but dovish; US to sell 3, 10 & 30-yr
- Tables: China Commodities Trade / Factset S&P500 Earnings Scorecard
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A busy week for US and Chinese statistics kicks off with a relatively modest daily schedule, whereby the highlights are likely to have been the overnight items: a) Fed's Powell comments on secular stagnation and his very dovish leaning on rates due to inflation; b) the BoJ summary of the hefty divisions on the policy at its July meeting; c) Chinese Trade data; d) a surprisingly sharp rebound in the Japanese Economy Watchers (services) survey; e) the rebound in the UK Visa Consumer Spending data, and f) a slightly better than expected rise in German Industrial Production. Ahead lies the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence, and rather more significantly the US Labour Market Conditions Index, which will extend last month's rebound in a rather more emphatic fashion after Friday's labour data, with a further smattering of corporate earnings, and a speech by Mr Trump on economic policy. The fresh all-time high in the S&P500 on Friday, and a firm tone in overnight Asian equity markets is a reminder, if one is needed, that this era of financial repression continues to force investors to desperately search for income and returns, whatever their risk parameters, and per se all too often defy any ostensible headwinds from economic and policy fundamentals, and atrocious market liquidity conditions, currently exacerbated by the summer holiday season.
The China Trade data underline the ongoing headwinds to its exports (somewhat weaker than expected), but this is hardly news or unexpected, with the Imports and commodity trade data offering the more interesting items. Overall imports defied forecasts of a slightly slower pace of decline with a 12.5% y/y fall in USD terms, or 10.5% y/y in Yuan terms, which can hardly be largely attributed to what was mixed profile to Imports, indeed in country breakdown terms, the sharp acceleration in the fall in Imports from the US down 23.2% y/y, vs. June's -12.7% will likely catch the eye of US politicians, and prompt complaints about the fall in the CNY. Export wise the sharpest falls in % (rather than volume terms) were to beleaguered EM economies, above all Brazil and South Africa. On the commodity side of the equation, the agricultural imports (above all the fall in soybean and rise in rice) would seem to reflect the Chinese penchant for trading, with rice prices having fallen sharply since May, while the slide in Soybeans a function of the Q2 rally, with the steep July price fall likely to see a rebound in coming months. As for Iron & Steel, the rebound in Iron Ore Imports (overall second highest monthly reading in volume terms) will be something of a salve for a roller coaster market price, while the persistent rise in Steel Exports will only heighten complaints about dumping, and does raise questions about how much output has really being cut. Last but certainly not least, energy sector data highlight continued strength in imports of Crude (net 12.5% y/y y.t.d.) and NatGas (19.6% y/y y.t.d.), but the collapse in Refined Products imports and a the ongoing surge in Refined Products Exports (46.3% y/y y.t.d.) will likely serve to temper the nascent rally in Crude prices.
The UK Visa Consumer Spending report serves as a timely reminder that the UK economy has certainly not stalled post Brexit, though in fairness to the BoE, it did stress that the headwinds to consumer spending are only likely to materialize with a lag. However it does imply that the July BRC Retail Sales data tonight should be rather better than the expected fall to -0.7% y/y from June's -0.5%. As for the Japan Economy Watchers survey rebound, this effectively reverses all of June's fall, and the latter now looks a very quirky outlier. Perhaps the more salient point is that the indices are still well below their December through February levels.
In terms of the week's statistical agenda, Chinese inflation data are expected to diverge once again, with CPI seen slipping to 1.8% from 1.9% y/y, while energy related base effects and a weaker CNY are expected to see PPI fall at the slowest pace (2.0% y/y) since September 2014, which suggests that any PBOC easing moves are likely to focus more on credit channels, rather than a rate cut. Retail Sales (f'cast 10.5% y/y vs. June 10.6%) and Industrial Production (seen unchanged at 6.2% y/y) seem unlikely to generate much reaction, particularly given a disconnect between official data and microeconomic readings gleaned from corporate and other reports. For the US, the focus will primarily be on Retail Sales, which are expected to slow from June's very robust 0.6% m/m headline and 0.7% core readings, to 0.4% m/m on headline and ex-Autos & Gasoline, with Auto Sales leading the way, while falling gasoline prices act as something of a drag; overall this would confirm an ongoing solid profile to consumer spending. PPI and Import Prices will see some drag from energy prices and are seen little changed in y/y terms as a result. Last but not least June Jolts Jobs Openings are forecast to bounce to 5.675 Mln from May's sharp fall to the 2016 low of 5.5 Mln, in other words echoing Payrolls in terms of underlining that May was an outlier. In the UK, Manufacturing Output for June is seen posting a further 0.2% m/m fall (May -0.5%), though the consensus forecast looks to be nothing more than an extrapolation from the advance Q2 GDP data for the sector, and the falls are more a function of unwinding April's outlier gain, than a de facto reflection of Brexit related caution.
Otherwise New Zealand's RBNZ is seen cutting rate a further 25bps to a fresh record low of 2.0%, justified by very low levels of inflation and trying to push against NZD strength, and ignoring an extraordinarily overheated housing market, which it continues to try to curb via macro-prudential means. India's RBI and South Korea's BoK are both seen on hold, but likely to sound relatively dovish, with the RBI looking to see how the monsoon season impacts food prices, and the impact of the Goods & Sales Tax (GST) on price formation in the medium-term. On the political front, Trump 's speech on economic policy today will be closely examined, but the question and speculation remains about whether he will quit. The US dominates a seasonally modest run of Government debt auctions, with Germany and Austria selling 10-yr debt, while the UK sells a 20-yr Index-Linked Gilt. Oil markets have monthly outlook reports due from EIA, IEA and OPEC, and Corporate Earnings reports remain plentiful.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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oil/wti
Dentalfloss
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43.00-44.00 is a real ton of rez
nymex V6
nymex V6
Dentalfloss
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dax
Dentalfloss
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18568..gotcha
Dentalfloss
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oil/wti comin off our marked rez area
Dentalfloss
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dax goin with it
its all still bullish
Moneylender
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interesting morning
Dentalfloss
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dow
Last edited:
Moneylender
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dow
What goes up must come down!!!
Dentalfloss
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here is the right chart
Dentalfloss
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trend test/red 18465
18520 first
then 18500
18520 first
then 18500
Dentalfloss
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18568 rez picked off at the weekend
excellent
excellent
timsk
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Well, if watching paint dry comes under the category of 'interesting' - then I suppose it was, lol. Personally, watching price bob about in a 40 point range for five hours is my idea of hell!
Moneylender
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Dow looking bearish 18560
Dentalfloss
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18568 workin well
