Dentalfloss
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Stealth
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
Short Cac 5012 x 1 only. TPs 4975/50. I can see this going either way very rapidly on almost any news so will probably get rid before the numbers unless I'm well itm....and unlike some, I might even use a stop
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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C
cantagril
Around 4990 atm. Stop itm, just....Short Cac 5012 x 1 only. TPs 4975/50. I can see this going either way very rapidly on almost any news so will probably get rid before the numbers unless I'm well itm....and unlike some, I might even use a stop
C
cantagril
...and stopped out at 5002 +10. can almost afford to buy df a coffee and maybe even a new mask - disposable, of course
C
cantagril
Morning!
Probably my last trade of the week - other stuff to do and all that.
Short Cac @5050 from yesterday evening. Thirds this time but modest TP targets: 5015/5000/4985. Stops at +1. As the 25s thing is still going strong and I've done myself out of a fair profit by using them as targets, I thought I'd adjust and see if that gives me a better result and stops me doing something stupid. All will be revealed. Am not expecting fireworks today and a modest p/b after yesterday's exuberance would seem to be reasonable.
Chart is 5 x 3:
Probably my last trade of the week - other stuff to do and all that.
Short Cac @5050 from yesterday evening. Thirds this time but modest TP targets: 5015/5000/4985. Stops at +1. As the 25s thing is still going strong and I've done myself out of a fair profit by using them as targets, I thought I'd adjust and see if that gives me a better result and stops me doing something stupid. All will be revealed. Am not expecting fireworks today and a modest p/b after yesterday's exuberance would seem to be reasonable.
Chart is 5 x 3:
C
cantagril
...and stopped out for +1. Might try again, depends on caffeine levels.
C
cantagril
Shot Cac again @5053 - same idea but this time I'll take the 5025 if it's offered.
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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- 63,404
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- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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- Likes
- 3,726
Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 3 July 2020 - ADM ISI
- Services PMIs dominate US Independence Day thinned session; smattering
of ECB speakers and Turkish inflation the other highlights, as Fed
Balance sheet and continued adverse pandemic infection rate news and
vaccine optimism digested
- Services PMIs: China jump may offer signal for other economies; Europe
readings expected to jump, but still in contraction territory
- Fed Balance sheet: cen. bank swaps and Treasury cash balance drops
account for third consecutive contraction; lack of demand for Main
St lending facility less a function of easier lending conditions, and
probably more about heightened uncertainty - underlines fiscal needs
- Charts: Fed Balance Sheet & Treasury Cash Balance at Fed
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
With the US closed for Independence Day (apologies for calling it Thanksgiving yesterday ), the calendar of data and events is heavily front loaded, with Services PMIs from Asia and Europe dominating an otherwise light schedule of statistics, with Turkish CPI the other market sensitive item, while a smattering of ECB speak is the only event of note. Markets will likely be relatively subdued in activity terms, as they continue to indulge in a natural 'triumph of hope over adversity', thus placing greater weight on the 'record' US Payrolls gain and the potential for a vaccine (by the way, small problem it's made by China's Sinovac, and if I have heard the US, UK and European politicians correctly, China is verging on persona non grata .... but hey, what's a little bit of exceptionalism - though it should be added there are others, for instance Zydus and Bharat Biotech are trialling in India, and Moderna in the US) than the adverse trend in infection rates. As a small backtrack, the Payrolls data were much better than expected, but a) survey week preceded the latest surge in US infection rate, b) a rebound of 7.5 Mln in two months is good news, which leaves 'only' 14.5 Mln jobs to recover that were lost in March & April, c) both sets of the more timely Claims data were dispiriting, a paltry 55K drop in Initial to 14.27 Mln, and a slight rise in Continued Claims to 19.29 Mln.
Some thoughts also needs to be given to the weekly Fed Balance sheet (chart) report, which shrank modestly again for a third week, once again primarily dictated by a further reduction in foreign central bank swap lines by ca. $50 Bln, in itself a positive signal on the global supply / availability of USD. The other factor was a reduction in the Treasury's Cash Balance at the Fed, which is typical in the 3rd week of the month, and still leaves its balance at the Fed at a ridiculously high $1.656 Trln (chart), above all given Treasury's own forecast of a balance of $800 bln for end June - what is the point of the Treasury borrowing so much, and then 'hoarding' it at the Fed (in itself draining cash from the banking sector). However the Main Street lending facility still remains untapped, which one could brush away with the observation that financial conditions have eased considerably, though that is rather glib, as practically all the metrics in such indices are market not Main St focused, and the ongoing high level of job losses suggest that at SME level at least, there is need. Demand may however be weak given the uncertainty on the economic outlook, and a good deal of resultant caution about taking on more debt. It does in fact illustrate that much more needs to be done fiscally in terms of direct payments into those parts of the economy that are most vulnerable, more private sector debt is the wrong solution, above all when it is for 'current' spending as opposed to 'capital' (i.e. investment) spending. In passing, someone should shout this in the ears of the EU's 'frugal four'.
** World - June Services PMIs **
- The jump in China's Caixin Services PMI to 58.4 from 55.0 is the first reading anywhere that points to a likely more sustained return to prior levels of activity, but is equally instructive in terms of how long it took after lockdown measures were eased and infections stayed low - ca. 3 months, and sets a form of benchmark when looking at other countries in coming months. Elsewhere, the sharp improvement seen in the G7 flash Services reading are expected to be confirmed, and may see some upward revision, as seen in Japan overnight, as well as being echoed elsewhere, but... they are nearly all still below 50.0, and while some further improvement should be expected in coming months, the rebound in infection rates will likely dampen activity, as well continued and necessary social distancing measures, implying a still very long road back to prior levels in money GDP terms. Given the thin margins and heavy dependency on immediate cash flows, let alone any roll back of govt job retention schemes, this may prove to be too much of a burden for many companies in the sector, above all those in retail, recreation and tourism.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
| Inbox | x |
| 08:33 (14 minutes ago) |
|
- Services PMIs dominate US Independence Day thinned session; smattering
of ECB speakers and Turkish inflation the other highlights, as Fed
Balance sheet and continued adverse pandemic infection rate news and
vaccine optimism digested
- Services PMIs: China jump may offer signal for other economies; Europe
readings expected to jump, but still in contraction territory
- Fed Balance sheet: cen. bank swaps and Treasury cash balance drops
account for third consecutive contraction; lack of demand for Main
St lending facility less a function of easier lending conditions, and
probably more about heightened uncertainty - underlines fiscal needs
- Charts: Fed Balance Sheet & Treasury Cash Balance at Fed
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
With the US closed for Independence Day (apologies for calling it Thanksgiving yesterday
), the calendar of data and events is heavily front loaded, with Services PMIs from Asia and Europe dominating an otherwise light schedule of statistics, with Turkish CPI the other market sensitive item, while a smattering of ECB speak is the only event of note. Markets will likely be relatively subdued in activity terms, as they continue to indulge in a natural 'triumph of hope over adversity', thus placing greater weight on the 'record' US Payrolls gain and the potential for a vaccine (by the way, small problem it's made by China's Sinovac, and if I have heard the US, UK and European politicians correctly, China is verging on persona non grata .... but hey, what's a little bit of exceptionalism - though it should be added there are others, for instance Zydus and Bharat Biotech are trialling in India, and Moderna in the US) than the adverse trend in infection rates. As a small backtrack, the Payrolls data were much better than expected, but a) survey week preceded the latest surge in US infection rate, b) a rebound of 7.5 Mln in two months is good news, which leaves 'only' 14.5 Mln jobs to recover that were lost in March & April, c) both sets of the more timely Claims data were dispiriting, a paltry 55K drop in Initial to 14.27 Mln, and a slight rise in Continued Claims to 19.29 Mln.Some thoughts also needs to be given to the weekly Fed Balance sheet (chart) report, which shrank modestly again for a third week, once again primarily dictated by a further reduction in foreign central bank swap lines by ca. $50 Bln, in itself a positive signal on the global supply / availability of USD. The other factor was a reduction in the Treasury's Cash Balance at the Fed, which is typical in the 3rd week of the month, and still leaves its balance at the Fed at a ridiculously high $1.656 Trln (chart), above all given Treasury's own forecast of a balance of $800 bln for end June - what is the point of the Treasury borrowing so much, and then 'hoarding' it at the Fed (in itself draining cash from the banking sector). However the Main Street lending facility still remains untapped, which one could brush away with the observation that financial conditions have eased considerably, though that is rather glib, as practically all the metrics in such indices are market not Main St focused, and the ongoing high level of job losses suggest that at SME level at least, there is need. Demand may however be weak given the uncertainty on the economic outlook, and a good deal of resultant caution about taking on more debt. It does in fact illustrate that much more needs to be done fiscally in terms of direct payments into those parts of the economy that are most vulnerable, more private sector debt is the wrong solution, above all when it is for 'current' spending as opposed to 'capital' (i.e. investment) spending. In passing, someone should shout this in the ears of the EU's 'frugal four'.
** World - June Services PMIs **
- The jump in China's Caixin Services PMI to 58.4 from 55.0 is the first reading anywhere that points to a likely more sustained return to prior levels of activity, but is equally instructive in terms of how long it took after lockdown measures were eased and infections stayed low - ca. 3 months, and sets a form of benchmark when looking at other countries in coming months. Elsewhere, the sharp improvement seen in the G7 flash Services reading are expected to be confirmed, and may see some upward revision, as seen in Japan overnight, as well as being echoed elsewhere, but... they are nearly all still below 50.0, and while some further improvement should be expected in coming months, the rebound in infection rates will likely dampen activity, as well continued and necessary social distancing measures, implying a still very long road back to prior levels in money GDP terms. Given the thin margins and heavy dependency on immediate cash flows, let alone any roll back of govt job retention schemes, this may prove to be too much of a burden for many companies in the sector, above all those in retail, recreation and tourism.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
Dentalfloss
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Yazza really want it under red for a decent sell
C
cantagril
Yerst...but I've got other fish in the fire and irons to fry today so I for one will probably be happy with a token p/b. My needa re modest. Cac messing around 30 now so if I get a nother few I'll just get rid of the lot and start the w/e now.
Dentalfloss
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Enjoy the weekend
C
cantagril
...afk for a bit and left an order in to close 1 at 25 and left the others open. Came back to find we were at 5000 so I took it on both at + 53 per so not too bad a beginning to the weekend after all - Average + 45 odd. . Dentist: I'll throw in a biscuit on top of that coffee
Good weekend all, see youse Monday but not too early.
Dentalfloss
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...afk for a bit and left an order in to close 1 at 25 and left the others open. Came back to find we were at 5000 so I took it on both at + 53 per so not too bad a beginning to the weekend after all - Average + 45 odd. . Dentist: I'll throw in a biscuit on top of that coffee
Good weekend all, see youse Monday but not too early.
🤪 🤪 🤪 🤪 🤪 🥰🥰🥰Bisous..Bisous
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Pret is now open
Excellent
Excellent
Last edited:
