Trading with point and figure

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[cantagril]

Yeeees,well, another pip-free interlude from Team Canta. I didn't get in again though I'd left a sell order in whilst I went off and did less interesting things. I see that it's down around 4910 again so that's twice I forewent 40pips....as Postman says, one has to keep watch.

 

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Rez starts @ 6170

 

[cantagril]

Mornin',

No idea which way we're going to jump this morning....no change there then.

Gor the Cac, those 25 pip levels still seem to be working reasonably well and 4975 is no exception. This equates roughly to Dax 12400 and Dow 25800 and I expect proper guidance from DF and Postie over on that other thread

In the meantime, this is what the Cac looks like on a 2.5 x 3:

 

[cantagril]

On a 12 x 3 and looking back further - especially to the 10th/11th, it seems to me that if one was a large institution of a financial nature (I'm avoiding the B word) the NFP numbers, what ever they are, might be a fine excuse to bugger up some Longs before the w/e....at which point everyone will feel better about the Virus and the economic recovery and we can do it all over again.

 

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[Dentalfloss]

there is a mass of rez though

 

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Needs blue for 4th JULY

 

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[Dentalfloss]

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 2 July 2020 - ADM ISI

Inbox

x

Ostwald, Marc

08:57 (7 minutes ago)

to Marc

- A modest schedule of data and events to focus solely on monthly and
weekly US labour data; Spain labour data, Sth Africa Current Account,
US/Canada Trade, BoE Financial Stability Report, ECB speakers; French,
Spanish & UK auctions; US early close ahead of Thanksgiving; COVID-19
infection rate trends adverse

- US Payrolls: 'record' rebound in Payrolls, but May/June bounce little
more than 20% of March/April collapse

- US Unemployment Rate: 'misclassification' the watchword again; further
drop expected; Underemployment Rate & Employment/Population ratio key

- Weekly Jobless Claims: Initial seen posting bigger fall, Continued
to post more modest drop - still way above any prior readings, momentum
continuing to ebb

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

A much quieter day in terms of data and events, with focus very squarely on the US monthly labour data and weekly jobless claims ahead of an early US close ahead of tomorrow's Thanksgiving holiday. The rest of the data and events schedule will likely get very short shrift from markets, comprising the overnight South Korea CPI, Australia Trade and Spain Unemployment, with South Africa's Q1 Current Account, the BoE's Financial Stability Report, some ECB speakers and govt bond auctions in Spain, France and the UK. The news on infection rates in many countries continues to be negative, with Houston seeing hospital bed capacity overwhelmed yesterday, and upturns in infection rates in for example Switzerland serving a reminder that the first wave is far from showing signs of being brought under control.

** U.S.A. - June Labour report / Weekly Jobless Claims **
- As last month's report more than amply demonstrated, the vagaries of who is and is not unemployed is rather more complex, and is anything but consistent across the establishment Payrolls survey, the household Unemployment Rate, and at the current juncture the ADP survey is no guide at all after a huge miss in May, which was revised yesterday from the original -2.76 Mln to +3.065 Mln, rendering the June +2.369 Mln beyond meaningless in 'guidance terms'. The consensus looks for headline Payrolls to rise by 3.0 Mln after May's +2.5 Mln, which if correct would be encouraging, BUT the fact remains that March and April saw an aggregated fall of 22.06 Mln, so the recovery in labour demand would at best be described as modest, and the scope for an outlier and major revisions is high. The Unemployment Rate is seen 'dipping' to 12.3% from 13.3% (though the BLS adjusted measure accounting for 'misclassification effects stood at 16.4% in May). Much will depend on the Employment / Population ratio, which recovered to 52.8% in from 51.3%, though still a far cry from the 61.6% It should also be borne in mind that the pool of funds in the Paycheck Protection Program, which allows business loan borrowing to pay wages to be partially written off, has been largely exhausted, in turn adding to layoff risks, with a second wave of large scale layoffs at major corporates already in motion, as attested to by last week's much smaller than expected drop in Initial Claims to 1.48 Mln. The disconnect between the monthly and weekly data only adds to the confusion, with Initial Claims forecast to post a sharper drop to 1.35 Mln, with Continued Claims see falling to 19.0 Mln from 19.5 Mln - with the usual observation, even with these falls (if forecasts are correct), these are readings would still be way above anything seen in previous cycles, thus perspective is critical in any assessment, above all the all too obvious loss of momentum in these weekly drops. As for Average Hourly Earnings, the quirks of composition (weighting of low paid jobs) implies a further unwind of those effects, with a drop of 0.7% m/m expected after May's -1.0% m/m, and April's +4.7% m/m - at the current juncture, this element of the labour report is meaningless as an indicator of wage trends, and will not on the Fed's policy radar, until the Unemployment Rate returns to mid-single digits. How markets react to the array of data is anyone's guess, and will probably be mostly dictated by the fact of the long holiday weekend in the USA, rather than anything else as positions are wound back.

========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================

 

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lined up

 

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sort that rez