Trading with point and figure

Dentalfloss · May 4, 2020

Dentalfloss · May 4, 2020

In rez

Dentalfloss · May 4, 2020

Ditto

Dentalfloss · May 4, 2020

Dentalfloss · May 4, 2020

Dentalfloss · May 4, 2020

In minor support
Buyers..??

Dentalfloss · May 4, 2020

Will it hold..??

Dentalfloss · May 4, 2020

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 4 May 2020 - ADM ISI

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Ostwald, Marc

08:30 (2 minutes ago)

to Marc

- Asia, Europe, Latam Manufacturing PMIs accompany Sentix survey, HK GDP
and US Factory Orders top data run; 'world' virus vaccine summit and
US/China tensions in focus along with further raft of earnings

- Markets still confronted by vaccine/treatment and lockdown hopes against
reality of economic and anecdotal virus news conundrum

- Week Ahead: PMIs, German Orders and expected gargantuan US Payroll slide
top data run; RBA and BoE meetings, flood of govt bond auction and
corporate earnings

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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As Asia, Europe and Latin America return from Friday's holiday, the 'catch up' on Manufacturing PMIs will dominate the data schedule, with CPI from beleaguered Turkey, provisional Hong Kong Q1 GDP, the rather redundant (in the same way as the ZEW) Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence and US Factory Orders also feature. The virtual summit of world leaders to discuss co-ordinated funding of research into a vaccine against Covid-19, hosted by EC's von der Leyen, is welcome, but with the US, China and Russia not participating, it really does underline the spectacular political failure to co-ordinate efforts to combat the virus at national (in some cases), regional and global levels, for which there is insufficient opprobrium to be cast on the world's political classes - to be sure co-ordination is no panacea, but the polticking in the face of the biggest crisis since the last World War is a disgrace, and underlines a huge deficit in statesmen and stateswomen.

The Week Ahead - Brief Preview:

- A busy week is in prospect with the usual run of PMIs along with the US Payrolls report (forecast to slide by a gargantuan 22 Mln) and indeed plenty of other labour data topping the data agenda, as markets continue to focus on a) measures to lockdown measures across the world and hope for a robust rebound in economic activity (expect very divergent trends and be ready for disappointment above all on sustainability), b) hope rather vainly for (instant) vaccines and treatments for Covid-19 (timelines for these are years, not days, weeks or months). German Factory Orders, Industrial Production (also in France, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden) and Trade data are also due. Japan will be closed for much of the week for Golden Week.

- Australia's RBA and the Bank of England's MPC take up the baton from the BoJ, Fed & ECB in policy terms, with hopes for 'moaarrr stimulus' (money printing - yes; outright monetary financing - yes; stimulus - anything but, merely measures to head off the worst in real economy and financial system terms).

- Govt bond supply will again be very plentiful, with the US quarterly refunding on Wednesday set to re-introduce 20-yr Treasuries onto its schedule, and other maturities seen upsized as volumes of couponed issuance continue to trend sharply higher. Corporate issuance will continue to plentiful following April's record $288.9 Bln in USD IG issuance beat March's prior al -time record of $255.5 Bln, and brought the year to date total to $774.8 Bln, which compares with $419.4 Bln in the same period of 2019.

- Oil and commodity markets will also remain in focus, as demand and supply shocks and disruptions due to Covid-19 remain in view. In broader terms volatility appears likely to rebound as market hopes and self-serving optimism continue to be founder on the realities of incoming economic news and other anecdotal evidence on activity, particularly given current valuations and / or credit spreads.

- In the EM space, there are plenty of central bank meetings, but it is the speed at which FX reserves are being run down to defend currencies (with perhaps some relief due to optimistic speculative flows in risk on moments) and shores up budgets (perhaps most notably Saudi Arabia), which requires attention along with sharp deteriorations in some local budgetary positions, and broader capital flows.

- Corporate earnings will also be very plentiful, with sector highlights, as compiled by Bloomberg, likely to include:

Technology: Siemens, Roku, Zillow, Switch, Nintendo, GoDaddy, Infineon, Wayfair, Pinterest, Square, Shopify, PayPal, CenturyLink, Telefonica and BT Group.

Energy/commodity: Occidental, Barrick Gold, Exelon, Total, Williams Cos., Marathon Petroleum, Chemours, Repsol, Enel and Fortis.

Financial: Berkshire Hathaway, AIG, UniCredit, Banco do Brasil, Macquarie Group, ING, Nomura, Ameriprise, BNP Paribas, Thomson Reuters, Sun Life, Allstate, KKR, Prudential Financial, MetLife and Yes Bank.

Cars/car services: BMW, Uber, Lyft, Ferrari, Fiat Chrysler, GM and Piaggio & C.

Food/drink: Tyson Foods, Bunge, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Ambev, Grubhub, Beyond Meat, Imperial Brands and Shake Shack.

Entertainment/travel: Walt Disney, Liberty Media, JetBlue, Air France-KLM, Hilton, Peloton, Fitbit, Hyatt Hotels, Activision Blizzard, Alaska Air, IAG and Fox.

Industrials/health: Nippon Steel, Lear, ArcelorMittal, Hillenbrand, Raytheon, DePont, Waste Management, Vestas, Veolia, Regeneron, CVS, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Ferrovial and Teva Pharmaceuticals.

========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================

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