Trading with point and figure

Dentalfloss · May 1, 2020

Dentalfloss · May 1, 2020

Dentalfloss · May 1, 2020

http://digitaleditions.telegraph.co...d/0/package/212/pub/212/page/76/article/38094

Dentalfloss · May 1, 2020

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 1 May 2020 - ADM ISI

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Ostwald, Marc

08:37 (1 hour ago)

to Marc

- Extensive May Day holiday likely to dampen volumes; focus on Japan, UJ
US Manufacturing PMIs/ISM; UK Credit and US Auto Sales also in view;
further rash of US corporate earnings

- Japan, Australia & Ireland PMIs point to downside risk in UK and USA

- UK Credit data: Credit & Mortgage volumes seen slowing but within range
of recent years, anecdotal evidence points to downside miss

- US Auto Sales expected to plummet to new all-time low

- US Auto Sales, Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index; USD IG, HY &
EM Credit spreads

- IG TV interview on global debt:

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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It's May Day which means that much of the world is on holiday, even if under lockdown in many cases, but also implying a low volume trading day, with a relatively limited run of data and events, though US corporate earnings will again very plentiful. On the statistical agenda there are Japan's Tokyo CPI and South Korea's Trade data to digest, with a smattering of final Manufacturing PMIs (Japan, UK & US) and the US Manufacturing ISM, while the UK also has monetary and credit indicators, and the US looks to Auto Sales and Construction Spending. On the earnings front, there are UK bank earnings via Lloyds, Metrobank and RBS, while the US has Chevron, Exxon Mobil and Phillips 66, along with Apollo Global Management, Charter Communications, Colgate-Palmolive, CVS Health and Weyerhaeuser among the likely highlights. The political narrative continues to deteriorate, with Trump threatening to impose more tariffs on China in 'retaliation' for Coronavirus, and with sources suggesting Trump threatened to withdraw military support for Saudi Arabia if it did not curb oil production. Nevertheless markets will be focussing on moves in Asia, Europe and the U.S. to ease lockdown measures next week.

In terms of the data flow, relatively sharp downward revisions to both Australia (44.1 vs. flash 45.6, March 49.7) and Japan (41.9 vs. flash 43.9, March 44.8) set the tone for the UK and US, which are only expected to see marginal downward revisions to 32.8 and 36.7 respectively, whereby much weaker than headline Production readings are the elements to watch closely. The same applies to the US Manufacturing ISM which is forecast to slide to 36.0 from March 49.1, just a shade above the Dec 2008 low of 34.5, and not too far from the all-time low of 30.3 in June 1980. UK credit aggregates are anticipated to show some slowdown in both Consumer Credit (£700 Mln s. £900 Mln) and above all Mortgage Lending (£3.5 Bln vs. prior £4.0 Bln), weak though neither of which are outside the ranges of recent years, and given anecdotal evidence the risks look to be firmly to the downside of forecasts. The final item of note will be US Auto Sales, which thanks to lockdown are seen plummeting again through the previous cyclical low of 9.36 Mln in September 2009 and all-time low8.80 Mln in Dec-1981 to just 7.0 Mln.