Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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From Jason Leavitt
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks...and Sir Canta 
🤓🤓🤓😷😷😷😷😷😻😻😻🥰🥰🥰🥰
🤓🤓🤓😷😷😷😷😷😻😻😻🥰🥰🥰🥰
Dentalfloss
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Canta...
Rick Stein /Secret France was in Uzes on the latest episode.Such a beautiful place.never realised
Rick Stein /Secret France was in Uzes on the latest episode.Such a beautiful place.never realised
Dentalfloss
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The local delicacy was salted cod...not sure if i like that
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
Good Morrow, brave Tooth Chirurgeon!
I trust that Monday is not exacerbating your usual ailments
* though I can personally recommend the Swill du Jour at the Café des Vieux Schnocks, just off the Place aux Herbes.
I trust that Monday is not exacerbating your usual ailments
It was never renowned for its nosh* but (as you probably gathered) it's really just a Roman town that never got completely trashed. Lots of people have cellars with vaulting the best part of 2k years old. It's a place definitely worth a gander but the summer season is to be avoided as the Scum of All Nations descends and it turns into a kind of demented Disneyland for 3 months.
* though I can personally recommend the Swill du Jour at the Café des Vieux Schnocks, just off the Place aux Herbes.
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 20 April 2020 - ADM ISI
- Data and events schedule very modest, digesting China LPR cuts & Japan
Trade, awaiting US and other corporate earnings; Coronavirus news still
front and centre
- Week Ahead: financial vs. real economy divide all too evident; surveys
and labour data to dominate; further flood of govt issuance and corporate
earnings; another key EU meeting on budget; oil market woes
- US corporate earnings: lowered estimate 'beats' an irrelevance in face
of slide in revenues and profits
- WTI futures contract table
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The non-Coronavirus schedule of data and events is very modest to start the week, with the as expected cuts in China's LPR rates and the slightly worse than expected Japan exports data (-11.7% y/y vs. forecast -9.4%) to digest, and the rest of the economic data schedule unlikely to distract markets, with Ally Financial, Halliburton & IBM set to feature on the US corporate earnings schedule. Otherwise the focal points are as outlined in the Week Ahead below.
RCEAP: The Week Ahead - Preview:
- For financial markets, the primary objective would appear to be discount an end to the lockdown of much of the global economy due to Coronavirus. For the real world the fatalities due to Covid-19 continue to climb rapidly, the spread of the various is slowing at best modestly, restrictions on any form of movement remain at a high level, and likely to remain so for a further substantial period, and job losses and/or short-time working at unprecedented levels. For central banks and governments, the objective is to keep credit flowing and financial markets 'up and running', which relative to 2008/09 appears to have been relatively successful even if current measures are a) blowing an ever bigger asset price bubble than has been achieved over the past decade, and b) are 'outright monetary financing' (however much they deny it), and c) escaping the iron grip of these measures will either be impossible or, end with one of the likely worst financial meltdowns in history. As William Pfaff noted in 'Barbarian Sentiments - How The American Century Ends (1989)': "The accounts that history presents have to be paid. Past has to be reconciled with present in the life of a nation. History is an insistent force: the past is what put us where we are. The past cannot be put behind until it is settled with."
- In terms of the events schedule, news related to easing of lockdown measures, medical treatments for and vaccines against Covid-19 will continue to prompt sharp reactions in markets, even if any such news will at best be tentative and speculative. EU leaders will again meet to try flesh out how they propose to finance their 'collective' efforts to combat the economic and financial impact of Covid-19, where the issue of 'debt mutualisation' remains a huge obstacle, and continues to highlight deep seated divisions between North, South and East which, if unbridged, continue to pose a serious risk of the EU and Eurozone imploding. EU/UK talks on a post-Brexit trade and co-operation modus operandi deal resume after a Covid-19 induced pause. China is seen cutting its 1 & 5 year Loan Prime Rates, in effect a rubber stamping exercise after cuts to other benchmark rates in recent weeks. Oil markets will also remain very much in focus, with the futures contract rollovers set to reduce some of the outsized levels of so-called 'contango' in the market, though as can be seen in attached table, the May 20/21 spread at $17.39 may be extreme, but June 20/21 at $10.71 is hardly small.
- On the statistical front, all forms of labour data will continue to be a major focal point, though surveys dominate the schedule with G7 'flash' PMIs for April accompanied by various national surveys including Germany's Ifo & ZEW, UK CBI Industrial Trends and Fed regional surveys. A busy week for the UK sees labour market reports, with the April Claimant Count perhaps likely to garner more attention than the March ILO Unemployment Rate or Average Weekly Earnings, and there are also CPI, RPI, PPI, Retail Sales and PSNB budget data. The US looks to Durable Goods Orders, New and Existing Home Sales. Elsewhere in Asia Japan, South Korea, Taiwan & Thailand all have various forms of Trade data, while Canada looks to CPI and Retail Sales.
- In the EM space, FX reserves (where published weekly) demand some attention as central banks attempt to prop up their currencies versus the USD. There are rate decisions in Russia, where a rate cut has already been flagged by Bank Rossi governor Nabiullina, though market opinions are evenly split between 25 bps and 50 bps, while Turkey's beleaguered TCMB is expected to but by 50 bops to 9.25%, and Ukraine's NBU to cut by 100 bps to 9.0%. Off schedule rate and other policy decisions remain likely.
- Govt bond auctions will continue to be extremely plentiful, led by the US which will sell up to a whopping $380 bln of various maturity T-Bills and Cash Management Bills as well as $17.0 Bln of 5-yr TIPS. The UK sells a total £11.4 Bln of 4, 5. 7 & 34-yr Gilts; Belgium offers EUR 3.0 Bln of 9, 13 & 46-yr; Germany EUR 5.0 Bln of 2-yr, Italy sells a t.b.c volume of CTZs (zero) and I-L BTPei, Japan JPY 2.9 Trln of 2 & 20-yr, Australia AUD 6.0 Bln of 2,3 & 10-yr and Canada 2.5 Bln of 31-yr. Corporate issuance will also continue to be running at very high levels, backstopped above all by the Fed and to a certain extent the ECB, and attention needs to be paid on what proposals emerge in the UK for packaging SME loans into securities, given that this is a 'new measure' being mooted by the UK Treasury.
- Corporate earnings are once again very plentiful, not only in the USA but also in Asia and Europe. As ever, there is the arch form of self-deception perspective, which in the case of the US S&P 500, and as compiled by Factset (see: https://www.factset.com/hubfs/Resou...k/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_041720.pdf ) says that 'for Q1 2020 (with 9% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 66% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise." Or there are the bald facts: 'For Q1 2020, the blended earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -14.5%. If -14.5% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q3 2009 (-15.7%).' As far as valuation goes: 'the forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18.5. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (16.7) and above the 10-year average (15.0).'
Be that as it may, among the highlights by sector are likely to be:
# Consumer: China International Travel Services, Chipotle, Coca-Cola, Domino's Pizza, Equifax, Heineken, Hershey, Kimberly-Clark, Philip Morris, Sony
# Financials: Ally Financial, American Express, Blackstone, Capital One, Credit Suisse, Discover, Fifth Third Bancorp, KB Financial, Nasdaq, Swedbank and Travelers
# Energy: Eni, Baker Hughes & Halliburton
# Health care: Biogen, Eli Lilly, HCA Healthcare, Quest Diagnostics, Sanofi
# Manufacturing: Alcoa, Atlas Copco, Kone, Lockheed Martin, Philips, POSCO
# Tech/Telecoms: AT&T, Ericsson, IBM, Infosys, Intel, LG Display, Netflix, SAP, Snap, STMicroelectronics, Texas Instruments, T-Mobile US & Verizon
# Transport: Hyundai Motor, Kia Motors, Paccar, Southwest, Union Pacific & Volvo
| Inbox | x |
| 08:44 (6 minutes ago) |
|
- Data and events schedule very modest, digesting China LPR cuts & Japan
Trade, awaiting US and other corporate earnings; Coronavirus news still
front and centre
- Week Ahead: financial vs. real economy divide all too evident; surveys
and labour data to dominate; further flood of govt issuance and corporate
earnings; another key EU meeting on budget; oil market woes
- US corporate earnings: lowered estimate 'beats' an irrelevance in face
of slide in revenues and profits
- WTI futures contract table
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The non-Coronavirus schedule of data and events is very modest to start the week, with the as expected cuts in China's LPR rates and the slightly worse than expected Japan exports data (-11.7% y/y vs. forecast -9.4%) to digest, and the rest of the economic data schedule unlikely to distract markets, with Ally Financial, Halliburton & IBM set to feature on the US corporate earnings schedule. Otherwise the focal points are as outlined in the Week Ahead below.
RCEAP: The Week Ahead - Preview:
- For financial markets, the primary objective would appear to be discount an end to the lockdown of much of the global economy due to Coronavirus. For the real world the fatalities due to Covid-19 continue to climb rapidly, the spread of the various is slowing at best modestly, restrictions on any form of movement remain at a high level, and likely to remain so for a further substantial period, and job losses and/or short-time working at unprecedented levels. For central banks and governments, the objective is to keep credit flowing and financial markets 'up and running', which relative to 2008/09 appears to have been relatively successful even if current measures are a) blowing an ever bigger asset price bubble than has been achieved over the past decade, and b) are 'outright monetary financing' (however much they deny it), and c) escaping the iron grip of these measures will either be impossible or, end with one of the likely worst financial meltdowns in history. As William Pfaff noted in 'Barbarian Sentiments - How The American Century Ends (1989)': "The accounts that history presents have to be paid. Past has to be reconciled with present in the life of a nation. History is an insistent force: the past is what put us where we are. The past cannot be put behind until it is settled with."
- In terms of the events schedule, news related to easing of lockdown measures, medical treatments for and vaccines against Covid-19 will continue to prompt sharp reactions in markets, even if any such news will at best be tentative and speculative. EU leaders will again meet to try flesh out how they propose to finance their 'collective' efforts to combat the economic and financial impact of Covid-19, where the issue of 'debt mutualisation' remains a huge obstacle, and continues to highlight deep seated divisions between North, South and East which, if unbridged, continue to pose a serious risk of the EU and Eurozone imploding. EU/UK talks on a post-Brexit trade and co-operation modus operandi deal resume after a Covid-19 induced pause. China is seen cutting its 1 & 5 year Loan Prime Rates, in effect a rubber stamping exercise after cuts to other benchmark rates in recent weeks. Oil markets will also remain very much in focus, with the futures contract rollovers set to reduce some of the outsized levels of so-called 'contango' in the market, though as can be seen in attached table, the May 20/21 spread at $17.39 may be extreme, but June 20/21 at $10.71 is hardly small.
- On the statistical front, all forms of labour data will continue to be a major focal point, though surveys dominate the schedule with G7 'flash' PMIs for April accompanied by various national surveys including Germany's Ifo & ZEW, UK CBI Industrial Trends and Fed regional surveys. A busy week for the UK sees labour market reports, with the April Claimant Count perhaps likely to garner more attention than the March ILO Unemployment Rate or Average Weekly Earnings, and there are also CPI, RPI, PPI, Retail Sales and PSNB budget data. The US looks to Durable Goods Orders, New and Existing Home Sales. Elsewhere in Asia Japan, South Korea, Taiwan & Thailand all have various forms of Trade data, while Canada looks to CPI and Retail Sales.
- In the EM space, FX reserves (where published weekly) demand some attention as central banks attempt to prop up their currencies versus the USD. There are rate decisions in Russia, where a rate cut has already been flagged by Bank Rossi governor Nabiullina, though market opinions are evenly split between 25 bps and 50 bps, while Turkey's beleaguered TCMB is expected to but by 50 bops to 9.25%, and Ukraine's NBU to cut by 100 bps to 9.0%. Off schedule rate and other policy decisions remain likely.
- Govt bond auctions will continue to be extremely plentiful, led by the US which will sell up to a whopping $380 bln of various maturity T-Bills and Cash Management Bills as well as $17.0 Bln of 5-yr TIPS. The UK sells a total £11.4 Bln of 4, 5. 7 & 34-yr Gilts; Belgium offers EUR 3.0 Bln of 9, 13 & 46-yr; Germany EUR 5.0 Bln of 2-yr, Italy sells a t.b.c volume of CTZs (zero) and I-L BTPei, Japan JPY 2.9 Trln of 2 & 20-yr, Australia AUD 6.0 Bln of 2,3 & 10-yr and Canada 2.5 Bln of 31-yr. Corporate issuance will also continue to be running at very high levels, backstopped above all by the Fed and to a certain extent the ECB, and attention needs to be paid on what proposals emerge in the UK for packaging SME loans into securities, given that this is a 'new measure' being mooted by the UK Treasury.
- Corporate earnings are once again very plentiful, not only in the USA but also in Asia and Europe. As ever, there is the arch form of self-deception perspective, which in the case of the US S&P 500, and as compiled by Factset (see: https://www.factset.com/hubfs/Resou...k/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_041720.pdf ) says that 'for Q1 2020 (with 9% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 66% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise." Or there are the bald facts: 'For Q1 2020, the blended earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -14.5%. If -14.5% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q3 2009 (-15.7%).' As far as valuation goes: 'the forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18.5. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (16.7) and above the 10-year average (15.0).'
Be that as it may, among the highlights by sector are likely to be:
# Consumer: China International Travel Services, Chipotle, Coca-Cola, Domino's Pizza, Equifax, Heineken, Hershey, Kimberly-Clark, Philip Morris, Sony
# Financials: Ally Financial, American Express, Blackstone, Capital One, Credit Suisse, Discover, Fifth Third Bancorp, KB Financial, Nasdaq, Swedbank and Travelers
# Energy: Eni, Baker Hughes & Halliburton
# Health care: Biogen, Eli Lilly, HCA Healthcare, Quest Diagnostics, Sanofi
# Manufacturing: Alcoa, Atlas Copco, Kone, Lockheed Martin, Philips, POSCO
# Tech/Telecoms: AT&T, Ericsson, IBM, Infosys, Intel, LG Display, Netflix, SAP, Snap, STMicroelectronics, Texas Instruments, T-Mobile US & Verizon
# Transport: Hyundai Motor, Kia Motors, Paccar, Southwest, Union Pacific & Volvo
Dentalfloss
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In supp
