Trading with point and figure

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Mornin folks 🤓 🤓 🤓 🤓 😷 😷 😷 🥰 🥰 🥰

 

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Lookin like 3 more weeks of Lockdown......Really got to me yesterday....Not good

 

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Stay calm....and let the world go by
Meditate
Dig the garden
Down some booze

 

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Stay calm....and let the world go by
Meditate
Dig the garden
Down some booze

I have done none of those.....lol

 

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Updated

 

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Goldman expecting another 5 mill unemployment claims

 

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The weakest link.Breadth is narrow

 

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Upd

 

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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 16 April 2020 - ADM ISI

Inbox

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Ostwald, Marc

08:55 (37 minutes ago)

to Marc

- Digesting Fed Beige Book, Australia labour UK BRC Retail Sales data &
Japan monthly Tankan, awaiting BoE lending survey, US jobless claims and
Philly Fed surveys; more corporate earnings, plenty of govt bond supply
rom UK, France & Spain; OPEC monthly Oil Market Report

- OPEC report likely to echo IEA in highlight demand/supply imbalance
despite latest round of cuts, highlight storage capacity challenges

- US Jobless Claims seen posting another near record rise, likely to
breach 22.0 Mln total on a 4 week basis

- US Philly Fed: slide expected, but NY Fed index collapse hints at worse
than expected outturn

- Volatility indices show quite sharp contrasts

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The data schedule is none too onerous today, but with Australian Unemployment (better than expected) and unsurprisingly weak UK BRC Retail Sales overnight and US weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey, accompanied by US Housing Starts, there is plenty of 'current' data. The BoE publishes its Bank Liabilities/Credit Conditions Surveys following on from comments by UK Finance (formerly the BBA) yesterday that UK banks banks are dealing with a backlog of more than 20,000 applications for emergency government-backed finance from small businesses struggling due to the coronavirus, three weeks after the scheme was launched. It added that members have approved at total of 6,020 loans in total, and are working through the 28,460 applications received so far. It will be interesting to see how this is reflected in the BoE surveys, with BoE's Woods noting yesterday that UK Banks have enough capital to make Govt. COVID-19 loans, and that issues are operational bottlenecks. Following on from the IEA's monthly Oil Market report, which projected a 9.0 Mln bpd drop in global oil demand in 2020, and saw oil inventories rising 12.0 Mln bpd in H1 2020, the challenges for the OPEC++ production cut are all too clear to see, and underlines the growing challenge of storage capacity; it will be interesting to see how today's OPEC monthly Oil Market report projects that balance. US Corporate Earnings see BoNY Mellon and Blackrock in financials and Abbott Laboratories in the medical sector, with the TSMC results to digest out pf Asia. Another busy day for issuance in Europe with two UK Gilt sales totalling £5.0 Bln, France selling medium dated OATs and I-L OATei totalling up to EUR 11.25 Bln and Spain with EUR 6.5 Bln of mediums and long Bonos. But it will remain Covid-19 spread and related shutdown news which remains front and centre, even if the primary observation remains that markets continue to be their own worst enemy in terms of attempting to discount the exit from lockdown measures and a meaningful drop in the spread, only to be knocked back by the reality that incoming news strongly suggests too much optimism - yesterday being a prime example. But with central banks pumping in endless volumes of liquidity and buying up most financial asset classes, the gaping chasm between the financial and real economies is all too obvious, and the resulting longer-term challenges (above all some sort of exit from emergency measures) ever more colossal. Interestingly while equity index volatility indices have dropped, there appears to be a floor around 40%, which in the post GFC period has often presented a cap (on a closing basis), in contrast to currency volatility which continues to ebb, and US Treasury volatility that is back in its range pre-Covid-19 - see attached charts.

In terms of the US numbers, the median for Initial Claims is 5.50 Mln, which would bring the 4-week total to an even more staggering 22.24 Mln, and renders comments such as this being a modest drop for a second week as heartless positivism. But as ever, the median disguises the fact that the range if 2.0 to 8.0 Mln, in other words no one really has a clue, outside of 'horrific'. Following on from the precipitous record fall to a record low of -78.2 in yesterday's NY Fed survey, today sees the April Philly Fed survey, where the median looks for -32.0 from a better than expected -12.7 in March, but the whisper may well be in the -50.0 to -70.0 area.

========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================

 

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