Trading with point and figure

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in our 23700

 

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yes sir

 

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Our 23700 worked a treat

 

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stops very tight now

 

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23440 was Inzi"s rez yesterday..poss supp

 

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stopped out...excellent stuff

 

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A tad out on our Dax rez.23700 was the key

 

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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 9 April 2020 - ADM ISI

Inbox

x

Ostwald, Marc

09:02 (54 minutes ago)

to Marc

- Labour data (US/Canada), surveys (Michigan Sentiment, UK RICS) in focus
along with EU meeting on Covid-19 joint 'package' and OPEC+; UK data run
and US PPI in the 'also ran' category; plenty more govt bond sales

- US/Canada: labour indicators seen remaining at extreme unprecedented
levels, forecast ranges spectacularly wide

- Michigan Sentiment: sharp slide seen, but not as dire as labour data,
but....

- Charts: Treasury MOVE vs. VIX volatility; G20 fiscal stimulus map;
US Michigan Sentiment vs. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The last trading day ahead of the Easter break sees a now all too familiar division in statistical terms between historical items, such as the UK monthly and swathe of monthly activity indicators, German Trade, India Industrial Production, and current items such as more labour market horror stories in USA (weekly jobless claims) and Canada (March Unemployment), a sharp hit to US March PPI from oil and other commodity prices, along with ugly surveys: UK RICS House Prices, Japan Consumer Confidence and US April provisional Michigan Sentiment. Govt bond supply will again be plentiful with Italy offering EUR 8.0 Bln total of BTPs, Canada with another bumper sized C$5.5 Bln 5-yr and the US offering a whopping $160 Bln of 4 & 8 week T-bills. Talking of govt fiscal plans to combat the impact of Covid-19, do take at look at the attached map of G20 plans, to which I would add my usual caveat about fiscal stimulus measures, size is no guide to efficacy, and as the SME lending programme struggles in the UK and USA amply demonstrate. This applies above all to the Eurozone, which in theory should today announce an EUR 500 Bln plan (eminently above and beyond already announced national programmes) if the resistance of the Netherlands can be overcome - apparently one EU diplomat observed about Tuesday's "failed" negotiations: "Dutch willingness to search constructively for a compromise on ESM conditionality was rather underdeveloped". Equally the auspices for today's OPEC+ meeting on production cuts look to be poor, with Russia and Saudi still far apart, and few signs that Russia is even vaguely willing to cut output without the US also committing to cutting output. The latest from TASS says a Energy ministry spokesperson said: "Russia agrees to reduce production in the framework of the deal between the OPEC + oil producing countries by 14% from the level of the first quarter of 2020, or by 1.6 million barrels per day".

In terms of forecasts for today's North American labour data, the consensus looks for a 500K fall in Canadian Employment, smashing the previous record of -82K from 1982, with a forecast range of -100k to -1.1 Mln, and estimates that 'to date' total job losses stand at 4.0 Mln. In the US, Initial Claims are seen rising another 5.25 Mln following last week's 6.628 Mln and the prior week's 3.307 Mln, with forecasts ranging from 2.5 Mln to 7.5 Mln. As for preliminary US Michigan Sentiment, the consensus looks for a drop to 75.0 from March's final 89.1, which might appear to be 'under-clubbed', though a look at the attached chart comparing it with the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, with which it is quite well correlated, the forecast looks appropriate.

Question for the day comes via the attached chart (MOVE vs VIX): US Treasury volatility has plummeted, but VIX fall has lagged sharply - is MOVE leading VIX, and should there be concern that MOVE appears to be ticking modestly higher again?

Recommended read via Chris Tinker "We are in a video game - not a Hollywood movie': https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/we-video-game-hollywood-movie-chris-tinker/

========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================

 

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Jobs fro the weekend.... I have to lift a manhole cover and clean out a drain
Not lookin forward to that one
Cannot get a plumber...None around

 

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Going food shopping later...Quite excited about that.Have not been near a shop in almost a week

 

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Inzi"s supp got taken out

 

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Inzi"s 23440 area worked.. as rez
Excellent stuff

 

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time for Elevenses

 

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