Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

DAX in supp

 

[Dentalfloss]

yes sir

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

missed it
twaz a easy one aswell
breakout was orderly and gentle

 

[Dentalfloss]

missed it
twaz a easy one aswell
breakout was orderly and gentle

before it got momentum

 

[Dentalfloss]

blue support....gotcha

 

[Dentalfloss]

SPX pump
Scientists have found out the virus is transmitted thru beer bottles

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

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[Dentalfloss]

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 5 February 2020 - ADM ISI

Inbox

x

Ostwald, Marc

09:05 (32 minutes ago)

to Marc

- Services PMIs and US ADP Employment dominate, US & Canada Trade also due,
numerous ECB, BoC, RBA & BoJ speakers and corporate earnings; digesting
surprise Thai rate cut, less dovish RBA

- Services PMIs: downward revision to Japan a small pointer to likely
sharp setback in February; Italy follows Germany up, Spain echoes
French setback; US Non-manufacturing ISM seen eking out small gain

- US ADP Employment: Nov and Dec divergence underlines unreliable read
across to Payrolls, solid gain expected, but Fed focussed on inflation
more than jobs

- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-5-february-2020/

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

It being the third working day of the month and the Wednesday before the official US labour market report means that the data schedule is dominated by Services PMIs and ADP Employment, along with Trade data from the US and Canada. In event terms, there is the 'State of the Union' address to digest (most notable for the infantile and pathetic displays of mutual contempt by Trump and Pelosi0, while ahead lies a further rash of corporate earnings accompanied by numerous RBA, BoJ, ECB and BoC speakers, along with an expected 25 bps rate cut in Brazil, with rates seen on hold in Albania, Iceland and Poland. But Coronavirus news flow will remain front and centre, even if market reaction to that flow of news continues to look rather cynical, focussing primarily on central bank liquidity provisioning, and downward revisions to GDP forecasts; even if one has to acknowledge that any attempt to gauge the longer term economic and social fall-out from the virus spread remains a fool's errand at the current juncture. Nevertheless the sharp downward revision to the final Japan Services PMI to 51.0 from the flash 52.1, along with the surprise 25 bps rate cut to 1.0% in Thailand, with the BoT citing THB strength, coronavirus and drought impact, along with delays to the budget as justification for the move, all underline that the rapid spread of the virus is already taking its toll. By contrast, the RBA trampled over lingering market hopes for a further rate cut, citing both benefits and risks to further cuts, and effectively suggesting that without a rise in Unemployment, it was unlikely to cut rates any time soon.

** World - January Services PMIs **
- It is debatable whether today's surveys will really offer that much in the way of insights, in so far as responses will largely have been compiled ahead of the coronavirus moving centre stage, above all its disruption to the airline, broader transport/logistics and tourism/recreation industries. The G7 flash readings showed substantial jumps in Japan, Germany and UK which are expected to have been sustained in today's reports, though forecasts assume that Italy and Spain will mirror the dip seen in the French reading, but the risk that February flash readings see a sharp drop looks to be quite high. That said the rebound in the Swedish reading, and further strength in Ireland do suggest that western European economies appear to have turned up after a lacklustre H2 2019, the latter also applies to India, with the Services PMI jumping to a 7-yr high.

** U.S.A. - January ADP Employment **
- As has been amply demonstrated in the past two months, the ADP report is often not a good guide either in directional terms or overall level for the official Payrolls data, though forecasts for the ADP at 158K (vs prior 202K) and Private Payrolls at 150K (vs prior 139K) are very close. Anecdotal evidence from the various regional surveys and indeed Consumer Confidence suggest a solid gain, even if the recovery in the ISM Manufacturing Employment index was marginal (46.6 vs. 45.2). But with Powell and many other Fed speakers stressing that their primary concern is the persistent undershoot (even though modest) of inflation relative to target, a tight labour market with no sign of a substantial pick-up in wage growth is not going to be a policy game changer.

 

[Dentalfloss]

WHO taking up my plan to cure the virus outbreak

Dow 50K
people make lots more endorphins and increase their antibody levels from that

 

[Dentalfloss]

Just been nominated for the Nobel prize for advances in medicine

 

[Dentalfloss]

Signals...signals...signals
breakout


wht is good about that..??
very little messing before the break

 

[Dentalfloss]

Its the messing about before the break that turns it into a brtaodening pattern.....Hated by p/f traders

 

[Dentalfloss]

This is a semi difficult signal
a fair bit of messing before the breakout

 

[Dentalfloss]

but...
supp held

 

[Dentalfloss]

some mess before the break
track the pullback..see how it gave an upside failure

 

[cantagril]

Its the messing about before the break that turns it into a brtaodening pattern.....Hated by p/f traders

Morning yr Grace!

That "bartending" pattern of yrs - I suppose you only teach that on the Advanced course?

 

[cantagril]

some mess before the break
track the pullback..see how it gave an upside failure
View attachment 274112

Hmm. For a change, I'm again doing more or less the opposite...
Now long EG @.8440 - looking to .8470/80 first and if there's still legs in it maybe then .8525