Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
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Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks 
🤓🤓🤓🤓🤪🤪🤪🤪
🤓🤓🤓🤓🤪🤪🤪🤪
Dentalfloss
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Is that a valid trendline.?
Seems to be holding
Dentalfloss
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change the aspect ratio
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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so there we seem to have the range
trend rez 13122 area
supp in 12975-13K ish...poss even as low as 12900
trend rez 13122 area
supp in 12975-13K ish...poss even as low as 12900
Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
Mornink Maestro!
It does seem to make a kind of sense - I've been playing about with reversal this a.m and the attached 20x5 chart fits in (ish) with your thoughts......so I'm long CAC at 5825 no TPs as yet but I might go for 5850 for n°1 for the feel-good-factor
It does seem to make a kind of sense - I've been playing about with reversal this a.m and the attached 20x5 chart fits in (ish) with your thoughts......so I'm long CAC at 5825 no TPs as yet but I might go for 5850 for n°1 for the feel-good-factor
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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GoodMornink Maestro!
It does seem to make a kind of sense - I've been playing about with reversal this a.m and the attached 20x5 chart fits in (ish) with your thoughts......so I'm long CAC at 5825 no TPs as yet but I might go for 5850 for n°1 for the feel-good-factor
But you need to be able to pick off that without having to go to p/f
A bit of practice
Dentalfloss
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makes life so much easier
C
cantagril
....sez the bloke who's been at it a decade
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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yes...but....sez the bloke who's been at it a decade
its all about being confronted with the raw chart....and knowing where to start looking
Dentalfloss
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ZWE @ 10am
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 10 December 2019 - ADM ISI
- Busy day for statistics though political and central bank event risk
likely to sustain cautious, subdued trading conditions: China inflation,
French Production to digest; looking to UK GDP and business activity
indicators, German ZEW and US NFIB surveys; Germany/Austria auctions
- China CPI: pork prices still the CPI 'villain', non-food very subdued;
PPI gradually turning the corner as energy price base effects swing to
negative
- UK GDP: very subdued picture to persist, totally subordinate to politics
- US NFIB Small Business Optimism: modest uptick seen, some upside risks
given strength of already published labour sub-indices
- Charts: US NFIB Small Business Optimism and NFIB Compensation plans
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-10-december-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
RIP - Paul Volcker - the finest of all Fed Chairmen/women - https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/bloomberg/odd-lots/e/57407896?autoplay=true
A busy day for statistics has China's CPI & PPI, French Industrial Production (better than expected) and Norwegian CPI (core soft) to digest, while ahead lie Norges Bank's quarterly Regional Survey, Italian Industrial Production, UK monthly GDP, Index of Services, Industrial Production, Trade & Construction Output, the German ZEW survey and US NFIB Small Business Optimism. Outside of ongoing (never ending? Ed.) political factors (US/China Trade, US Impeachment and the UK general election, the events schedule is very sparse with only the BoE's Financial Stability Report, which will be of particular interest in respect of what is or is not said / written about UK investment funds, following the Woodford meltdown and more recently the woes of the Property Fund sector. This week's Eurozone govt bond supply will be wrapped up today with EUR 4.0 Bln of German 2-yr and a paltry EUR 460 Mln of Austrian 10-yr. The value free German ZEW survey is projected to see Expectations turn fractionally positive (mirroring as ever the DAX's performance), While the Current Situation is anticipated to remain negative at -22.1, though slightly better than November, also effectively echoing still weak, but modestly better economic data over the past month. Today also is the day that the WTO's Appelate Body, which resolves disputes between member nations, will stop functioning thanks to the US exercising a veto and blocking new judges from being appointed to replace the two whose terms of office on the Appelate Body expire - very much Zeitgeist for the current era of protectionism.
** China - November CPI/PPI **
- While CPI jumped more than expected to 4.5% y/y vs. a forecast of 4.3% and October's 3.8%, this was wholly down to a further surge in Food Prices of 19.1% y/y vs. oct 15.5%, propelled unsurprisingly by a whopping 110.2% y/y rise in Pork prices, but Non-food prices continue to be very subdued at 1.0% y/y (Oct 0.9%). PPI fell slightly less than expected at -1.4% y/y vs. an expectation of -1.5%
** U.K. - October GDP, Index of Services & Industrial Production **
- UK GDP is forecast to post a marginal 0.1% m/m rise, which would see the 3-mth/3-mth drop to 0.1% q/q from 0.3%, with Index of Services projected at 0.2% q/q from 0.4%, and Industrial Production forecast to rise 0.2% m/m, but still contracting in y/y terms at -1.2% (vs. Sep -1.4%), while Construction Output is expected to dip modestly (-0.2% m/m). The Trade deficit is seen narrowing marginally to £-11.6 Bln, but the focus will be on the 3-mth/3-mth changes in Exports and Imports, which despite a strong contribution to Q3 GDP saw a 0.1% m/m fall in Sept Exports, and a 5.5% m/m rise in Imports - the latter perhaps boosted by the October 31 Brexit deadline; though as the sharp August revisions (perhaps summer holiday related) demonstrated, the September could easily be revised.
** U.S.A. - Nov NFIB Small Business Optimism **
- There have been rather too many so-called economists (of genus 'doomus and gloomus') that have been at pains to use components of this survey to argue that the US economy is on the brink of recession, mainly using rate of change metrics, which in the age of the mobile internet and so much disinformation looks to be at best naive, at worst just more ill-informed opinion, or malevolent bias. It is expected to edge up to 103.0 from 102.4, and even a cursory look at the attached chart underlines that the setback over the past 12 months still keeps at the highs of the past two decades. The risks look to be to the upside, if the already published Employment components (for Nov) are any guide, with the balance of businesses looking to raise pay at 26%, the highest since 1988, and hiring intentions also rebounding to 21% (best since July).
| Inbox | x |
| 08:38 (4 minutes ago) |
|
- Busy day for statistics though political and central bank event risk
likely to sustain cautious, subdued trading conditions: China inflation,
French Production to digest; looking to UK GDP and business activity
indicators, German ZEW and US NFIB surveys; Germany/Austria auctions
- China CPI: pork prices still the CPI 'villain', non-food very subdued;
PPI gradually turning the corner as energy price base effects swing to
negative
- UK GDP: very subdued picture to persist, totally subordinate to politics
- US NFIB Small Business Optimism: modest uptick seen, some upside risks
given strength of already published labour sub-indices
- Charts: US NFIB Small Business Optimism and NFIB Compensation plans
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-10-december-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
RIP - Paul Volcker - the finest of all Fed Chairmen/women - https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/bloomberg/odd-lots/e/57407896?autoplay=true
A busy day for statistics has China's CPI & PPI, French Industrial Production (better than expected) and Norwegian CPI (core soft) to digest, while ahead lie Norges Bank's quarterly Regional Survey, Italian Industrial Production, UK monthly GDP, Index of Services, Industrial Production, Trade & Construction Output, the German ZEW survey and US NFIB Small Business Optimism. Outside of ongoing (never ending? Ed.) political factors (US/China Trade, US Impeachment and the UK general election, the events schedule is very sparse with only the BoE's Financial Stability Report, which will be of particular interest in respect of what is or is not said / written about UK investment funds, following the Woodford meltdown and more recently the woes of the Property Fund sector. This week's Eurozone govt bond supply will be wrapped up today with EUR 4.0 Bln of German 2-yr and a paltry EUR 460 Mln of Austrian 10-yr. The value free German ZEW survey is projected to see Expectations turn fractionally positive (mirroring as ever the DAX's performance), While the Current Situation is anticipated to remain negative at -22.1, though slightly better than November, also effectively echoing still weak, but modestly better economic data over the past month. Today also is the day that the WTO's Appelate Body, which resolves disputes between member nations, will stop functioning thanks to the US exercising a veto and blocking new judges from being appointed to replace the two whose terms of office on the Appelate Body expire - very much Zeitgeist for the current era of protectionism.
** China - November CPI/PPI **
- While CPI jumped more than expected to 4.5% y/y vs. a forecast of 4.3% and October's 3.8%, this was wholly down to a further surge in Food Prices of 19.1% y/y vs. oct 15.5%, propelled unsurprisingly by a whopping 110.2% y/y rise in Pork prices, but Non-food prices continue to be very subdued at 1.0% y/y (Oct 0.9%). PPI fell slightly less than expected at -1.4% y/y vs. an expectation of -1.5%
** U.K. - October GDP, Index of Services & Industrial Production **
- UK GDP is forecast to post a marginal 0.1% m/m rise, which would see the 3-mth/3-mth drop to 0.1% q/q from 0.3%, with Index of Services projected at 0.2% q/q from 0.4%, and Industrial Production forecast to rise 0.2% m/m, but still contracting in y/y terms at -1.2% (vs. Sep -1.4%), while Construction Output is expected to dip modestly (-0.2% m/m). The Trade deficit is seen narrowing marginally to £-11.6 Bln, but the focus will be on the 3-mth/3-mth changes in Exports and Imports, which despite a strong contribution to Q3 GDP saw a 0.1% m/m fall in Sept Exports, and a 5.5% m/m rise in Imports - the latter perhaps boosted by the October 31 Brexit deadline; though as the sharp August revisions (perhaps summer holiday related) demonstrated, the September could easily be revised.
** U.S.A. - Nov NFIB Small Business Optimism **
- There have been rather too many so-called economists (of genus 'doomus and gloomus') that have been at pains to use components of this survey to argue that the US economy is on the brink of recession, mainly using rate of change metrics, which in the age of the mobile internet and so much disinformation looks to be at best naive, at worst just more ill-informed opinion, or malevolent bias. It is expected to edge up to 103.0 from 102.4, and even a cursory look at the attached chart underlines that the setback over the past 12 months still keeps at the highs of the past two decades. The risks look to be to the upside, if the already published Employment components (for Nov) are any guide, with the balance of businesses looking to raise pay at 26%, the highest since 1988, and hiring intentions also rebounding to 21% (best since July).
