Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Fake news.?
Dentalfloss
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in the zone..lets see what happens
Dentalfloss
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Updated
Dentalfloss
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missed a fair few on the way up..got a decent amount on the way down
then traded our lines
mo complaints
then traded our lines
mo complaints
Dentalfloss
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now your talkin
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Ditto
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GBP..Our pivots were off the mark/ a tad
that happens when price is wild
that happens when price is wild
Dentalfloss
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pullback from our rez this morniong..and bounce
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Brexit "state of play" - So what next? - a few thoughts
Brexit "state of play" - So what next? - a few thoughts
- A deal has been agreed, with considerable irony in the fact that the 'backstop' of the original Withdrawal Agreement would become the modus operandi, though only if this is approved by parliament on Saturday. A further irony is that this Withdrawal Agreement keeps the UK economy operating under EU rules until the end of 'transition period' in December 2020, which under the terms of the new agreement could in fact be extended - in reality a rather far cry from PM Johnson's claim that 'we have taken back control'. The fact that his effectively endorses the EU proposal of a border in the Irish Sea, which was made back in 2017, which most Brexiteers (including the PM) poured scorn on, even as recently as July/August. Be that as it may, this is a win-win for Johnson and the EU, in so far as Johnson can claim he delivered a 'new' Withdrawal Agreement as promised, and the EU can place blame for the deal being voted down in parliament firmly on the UK.
But mendacity and spin is the lingua franca of the current political world in most western nations, and as such this should not come as any great surprise. Nevertheless one can expect that Mr Farage and the Brexit Party will be launching a bitter tirade about this, and indeed about the fact that until a new trade deal is agreed, which could quite conceivably take a decade, the much despised (by Brexiteers) ECJ will continue to be the ultimate arbiter of legal disputes between the UK and EU. But in what would be a deeply cynical, though predictable move, the Brexiteers will doubtless argue that they are maintaining a clear legislative operating backdrop for domestic and foreign businesses in the UK, while a new trade agreement is negotiated.
But the immediate question relates to whether this 'agreement' will be ratified by Parliament on Saturday, given that it will clearly be approved by the EU Summit Council of Ministers today. That remains far from clear, and at the time of writing only the DUP of the potential swing group of voters has stated that it will vote against the 'deal'. They have in effect been thrown under a proverbial bus, and no amount of rumoured investment programmes were ever likely to be enough to induce them to at least abstain. Equally unsurprising was the GBP sell-off after an initial knee-jerk flip up to 1.30 vs USD and down to 0.8600 vs EUR, given much of the short GBP position has been purged over the past week.
The GBP will now be dancing to the tune of the 31 independent MPs voting intentions, and those on the right wing of the Labour party (ca. 30-40), who are opposed not only to a 'no deal' Brexit, but also to Labour leader Corbyn. It will certainly be a very close vote, with political analysts currently suggesting that Mr Johnson looks to be short of about 6 votes to pass the deal. As importantly, Johnson has negotiated a deal, and therefore the terms of the Benn Act that was passed to avoid a 'No Deal Brexit' have been met, and in principle he would not be forced to write a letter to the EU to request an extension.
It is not a 'good' deal other than the fact that it avoids the worst case scenario of 'No Deal' (in theory), but that is a moot point in the short-term. Whether it is or is not endorsed by Parliament, the UK is a) still headed for a general election, and b) none of the uncertainty about future trading arrangem and the rest of the world at the end of 2020. Per se and regardless of what happens on US/China trade and how that plays out in terms of global growth prospects, the UK economy faces another protracted uncertainty, which will dampen economic growth.
The question then is how a general election plays out under either vote scenarios. Should the deal pass, Johnson can campaign on how he delivered Brexit, and it is assumed that this would be something of a victory parade with a lot of 'airy' promises of more public sector spending (Law & Orders, NHS, Transport, Education, being pitched against Corbyn's socialist agenda of hefty tax increases for higher income earners and a programme of nationalisation for utilities and doubtless the railways. If the deal is not ratified, then both sides are unlikely to shift their position in terms of promises on spending and other measures, but Johnson would assuredly attack all the opposition parties as enemies of the "people's vote". The fact remains that none of this would change the very uncertain economic outlook in either scenario, nor would either heal the deep divisions as a result of the past 3 years, which also suggests that voting patterns will be very difficult to predict, and that opinion polls will not only be unreliable, but also suggest a wide range of possible outcomes. Further political gridlock would remain a very high probability, which would only foster even more social tensions, and indeed only serve to further reduce the UK's standing in the eyes of the rest world. In other words, today's "deal" is at most the 'end of the beginning'.
Sunday night Asia FX trade for the GBP looks to be a recipe for some big gaps ..... and more volatility
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
| Inbox | x |
| 14:51 (25 minutes ago) |
|
Brexit "state of play" - So what next? - a few thoughts
- A deal has been agreed, with considerable irony in the fact that the 'backstop' of the original Withdrawal Agreement would become the modus operandi, though only if this is approved by parliament on Saturday. A further irony is that this Withdrawal Agreement keeps the UK economy operating under EU rules until the end of 'transition period' in December 2020, which under the terms of the new agreement could in fact be extended - in reality a rather far cry from PM Johnson's claim that 'we have taken back control'. The fact that his effectively endorses the EU proposal of a border in the Irish Sea, which was made back in 2017, which most Brexiteers (including the PM) poured scorn on, even as recently as July/August. Be that as it may, this is a win-win for Johnson and the EU, in so far as Johnson can claim he delivered a 'new' Withdrawal Agreement as promised, and the EU can place blame for the deal being voted down in parliament firmly on the UK.
But mendacity and spin is the lingua franca of the current political world in most western nations, and as such this should not come as any great surprise. Nevertheless one can expect that Mr Farage and the Brexit Party will be launching a bitter tirade about this, and indeed about the fact that until a new trade deal is agreed, which could quite conceivably take a decade, the much despised (by Brexiteers) ECJ will continue to be the ultimate arbiter of legal disputes between the UK and EU. But in what would be a deeply cynical, though predictable move, the Brexiteers will doubtless argue that they are maintaining a clear legislative operating backdrop for domestic and foreign businesses in the UK, while a new trade agreement is negotiated.
But the immediate question relates to whether this 'agreement' will be ratified by Parliament on Saturday, given that it will clearly be approved by the EU Summit Council of Ministers today. That remains far from clear, and at the time of writing only the DUP of the potential swing group of voters has stated that it will vote against the 'deal'. They have in effect been thrown under a proverbial bus, and no amount of rumoured investment programmes were ever likely to be enough to induce them to at least abstain. Equally unsurprising was the GBP sell-off after an initial knee-jerk flip up to 1.30 vs USD and down to 0.8600 vs EUR, given much of the short GBP position has been purged over the past week.
The GBP will now be dancing to the tune of the 31 independent MPs voting intentions, and those on the right wing of the Labour party (ca. 30-40), who are opposed not only to a 'no deal' Brexit, but also to Labour leader Corbyn. It will certainly be a very close vote, with political analysts currently suggesting that Mr Johnson looks to be short of about 6 votes to pass the deal. As importantly, Johnson has negotiated a deal, and therefore the terms of the Benn Act that was passed to avoid a 'No Deal Brexit' have been met, and in principle he would not be forced to write a letter to the EU to request an extension.
It is not a 'good' deal other than the fact that it avoids the worst case scenario of 'No Deal' (in theory), but that is a moot point in the short-term. Whether it is or is not endorsed by Parliament, the UK is a) still headed for a general election, and b) none of the uncertainty about future trading arrangem and the rest of the world at the end of 2020. Per se and regardless of what happens on US/China trade and how that plays out in terms of global growth prospects, the UK economy faces another protracted uncertainty, which will dampen economic growth.
The question then is how a general election plays out under either vote scenarios. Should the deal pass, Johnson can campaign on how he delivered Brexit, and it is assumed that this would be something of a victory parade with a lot of 'airy' promises of more public sector spending (Law & Orders, NHS, Transport, Education, being pitched against Corbyn's socialist agenda of hefty tax increases for higher income earners and a programme of nationalisation for utilities and doubtless the railways. If the deal is not ratified, then both sides are unlikely to shift their position in terms of promises on spending and other measures, but Johnson would assuredly attack all the opposition parties as enemies of the "people's vote". The fact remains that none of this would change the very uncertain economic outlook in either scenario, nor would either heal the deep divisions as a result of the past 3 years, which also suggests that voting patterns will be very difficult to predict, and that opinion polls will not only be unreliable, but also suggest a wide range of possible outcomes. Further political gridlock would remain a very high probability, which would only foster even more social tensions, and indeed only serve to further reduce the UK's standing in the eyes of the rest world. In other words, today's "deal" is at most the 'end of the beginning'.
Sunday night Asia FX trade for the GBP looks to be a recipe for some big gaps ..... and more volatility
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
Dentalfloss
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Busted out into rez
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yes sir
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Mornin folks ☕ ☕ ☕ 
😎 😎 🆒 🆒 🤪 🤪 💥 💥 💥 💥 👄
😎 😎 🆒 🆒 🤪 🤪 💥 💥 💥 💥 👄
