Trading with point and figure

Dentalfloss · Oct 17, 2019

Last 70 hours of data

Dentalfloss · Oct 17, 2019

Dentalfloss · Oct 17, 2019

Dentalfloss · Oct 17, 2019

will our 1.2785 become rez

Dentalfloss · Oct 17, 2019

Dentalfloss · Oct 17, 2019

lined up

1.1100 could be a brick wall

Dentalfloss · Oct 17, 2019

cantagril · Oct 17, 2019

Dentalfloss said:
View attachment 268728

Missed that Long..Now 5695 odd. Got distracted messing around with the Loonie.....seems to be a profit-free zone for me this a.m

Dentalfloss · Oct 17, 2019

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 17 October 2019 - ADM ISI

Inbox

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Ostwald, Marc

08:51 (14 minutes ago)

to Marc

- Politics still the dominant factor; digesting mixed Beige Book, soft
Singapore Exports, slightly better than expected Oz labour data, awaiting
UK Retail Sales, US Claims, Philly Fed, Industrial Production & Housing
Starts; EU Summit, plenty of central bank speakers; bond auctions
in France, Spain & USA; modest run of earnings

- UK Retail Sales: slight drop expected, CPI implies marginal upside risk,
always good for an outlier; totally subordinate to Brexit talks

- Brexit: a deal may look close, but there is so much more to consider

- US Philly Fed Manufacturing expected to dip, but still more upbeat than
ISM; Industrial Production expected to drop after unexpected Aug jump

- US Housing Starts: forecast to drop after August surge to 12-yr high;
strong NAHB underlines housing getting a boost from slide in mortgage
rates

- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-17-october-2019/

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The script for today remains the same, with politics (Brexit, Turkey/Syria, US/China trade and impeachment inquiry) still ruling the roost on another busy day for data and central bank speakers, with a smattering of corporate earnings thrown in for good measure. Statistically there are the are the Australian labour data (as expected) and Singapore Exports worse than expected) to digest ahead of UK Retail Sales, and US Housing Starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing, Industrial Production and jobless claims, along with Canadian Manufacturing Sales. Govt bond auctions take the form of medium/long-dated OATs and OATi/eis from France and Bonos from Spain, while the US re-opens the current 5-yr TIPS benchmark. Corporate earnings feature Taiwan Semiconductor, Ericsson and in the US: Morgan Stanley, Philip Morris, Sun Trust Banks and Union Pacific.

** U.K. - Sep Retail Sales / Brexit talks **
- The anecdotal evidence on UK retail spending continues to pump out very gloomy headlines, which the official ONS data effectively denies. The consensus looks for a modest -0.2% m/m for headline and -0.1% m/m ex-auto fuel, which follows -0.2% and -0.3% in August, and implies a very marginal contraction for Q3. Given the slight downside miss on CPI, the risks are marginally to the upside of forecasts, though as is well documented this series habitually delivers sizeable outliers, which for this year at least have mostly been to the upside. But with the Brexit negotiations front and centre, today's report has a strong whiff of roadkill about it. On the Brexit talks front, there appears to be all the usual type of fudges being deployed like moving contentious items out of the Withdrawal Agreement into the Political Declaration (aka 'can kicking'), which may just get a 'deal' over the line; however critical points remain a) a parliamentary majority to back a deal still looks very elusive; b) therefore a general election looks ever more probable, and as much as Johnson & co will pin the blame for a filed deal on Labour, the result may still be more gridlock, polls are likely to be wildly divergent, and will offer little in the way of reliable guidance; c) even if a deal is agreed and approved, and a general election delivers a Conservative majority (probably less likely with a deal agreed), there will be years of negotiations ahead and a lot of uncertainty.

** U.S.A. - October Philly Fed, Sept Housing Starts and Industrial Production **
- For all the gloom around the manufacturing sector in the USA and indeed around the world, and the downbeat signals from the ISM surveys, the NY (better than expected at a sluggish 4.0) and Philly Fed survey, expected to dip to 7.6 from 12.0, do not appear to "have got the memo". To be sure both surveys are averaging at a much lower level in 2019 than 2018, but it would be an over reach to suggest that the wheels are falling off. Much the same has to be said of the official Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output data, which easily beat forecasts at 0.6% and 0.5% m/m in August, and are expected to post falls of -0.2% and -0.3% m/m respectively in September, largely predicated by the poor Manufacturing ISM, and a flat m/m reading for Manufacturing Hours in the labour report. The housing sector was busily being 'counted out' earlier in the year, but the sharp fall in mortgage rates is clearly getting some traction, with yesterday's NAHB Housing Index climbing back up to 71, i.e. not far off the Dec-2017 cyclical high of 74. Today's Housing Starts and Building Permits are expected to drop back after soaring up to 1.364 Mln and 1.425 Mln (both being the best readings since June 2007), with September readings forecast at 1.320 1.350 Mln respectively.

** U.S.A. - Beige Book review **
Yesterday's Beige Book (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook201910.htm) showed clear signs of loss of momentum in a number of sectors mostly due to trade tensions, thought the observations on the tightness of the labour market, and in retailers passing on tariff related to consumers bear some scrutiny, it noted:

"U.S. economy expanded at a slight to modest pace since the prior report as business activity varied across the country."

"Business contacts mostly expect the economic expansion to continue; however, many lowered their outlooks for growth in the coming 6 to 12 months."

"Contacts in some Districts suggested that persistent trade tensions and slower global growth weighed on activity. The early impact of a recent auto strike was limited. Freight shipments stabilized after falling during the previous reporting period."

"On balance, employment rose slightly amid reports of persistent worker shortages. Labor market tightness across skill levels and occupations was widely cited as a factor restraining hiring."

"A number of Districts reported that manufacturers reduced their headcounts because orders were soft. However, some firms were more concerned about the longer-term availability of workers and subsequently chose to reduce hours rather than staff levels. Wages rose moderately in most Districts, with upward pressure noted for lower-skill workers in the retail and hospitality industries and for higher-skill professional and technical workers. "

"Both retailers and manufacturers noted rising input costs, often for items subject to new tariffs, but retailers had relatively more success passing through these cost increases to their customers. Despite a recent increase in fuel costs, some reports suggested that shipping rates remained lower than they were earlier this year because of excess capacity in the industry."