Trading with point and figure

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updated

 

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maybe

 

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lined up

 

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Cissies....lol

 

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in minor supp now

 

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buyers in with a chance

 

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if that 0.8550 area holds

 

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0.8530-0.8550 area is a horizontal support

 

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lets see if it stays below the trendline

 

[inzimam]

lets see if it stays below the trendline
View attachment 260834

7097 is a good support level

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[inzimam]

Other indices look to be turnin

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[inzimam]

Clearly not

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Clearly not

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Watch the price action with levels as a guide

 

[inzimam]

Way watching 25250 area now

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[inzimam]

Way watching 25250 area now

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Seems to be holding. Higher highs now

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[inzimam]

At first rez 25340

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[Dentalfloss]

US February 2019 Labour report: "Payrolls miss large, but distorted, rest of report very solid" - quick take and audio file


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Ostwald, Marc
13:57 (1 hour ago)



to Marc






US February 2019 Labour report: "Payrolls misses large, but distorted, rest of report solid" - quick take and audio file

a) Payrolls / Establishment survey - Obviously 20K was a huge miss, but the average for December through February remains a very solid 186K. Weather effects are most obvious in the Construction payrolls drop of 31K, with further weakness in Retail and Leisure/hospitality - which had been flagged by the ADP report. But the establishment survey is totally out of sync with the household survey.

b) Unemployment Rate / Household survey - By contrast to Payrolls, this was very strong, the Unemployment Rate matched its cyclical low at 3.8%, the Underemployment Rate dropped like a stone to a new low of 7.3% from 8.1%, Employment rebounded 255K and Unemployment fell 300K. Given that this survey was weak in January, the Payrolls data is more likely to be the one that is the "lagging" 'out of sync' indicator.

c) Average Hourly Earnings / Weekly Hours - As highlighted by the Beige Book, wage pressures continue to build, even if they are not an immediate point of concern for the Fed, but at 0.4% m/m for a new cyclical high of 3.4%, the FOMC will on alert for evidence that wages are taking off.

A quick squawk on the labour report can be found here:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/us-february-2019-labour-report-commentary/


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MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist