Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

not sure about the validity of this trendline

 

[Dentalfloss]

Mornin folks

 

[Dentalfloss]

DAX into the open....tricky needs a p/f chart to sort out that mess

 

[Dentalfloss]

spikes galore...lol

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dax in support
will it hold..??

 

[Dentalfloss]

gettin bought..a tad

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dow
bulls need to get it above the line

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

FTSE...not lookin happy

 

[Dentalfloss]

whack

 

[Dentalfloss]

yes sir

 

[Dentalfloss]

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 8 March 2019 - ADM ISI

Ostwald, Marc
08:39 (34 minutes ago)



to Marc






- Very busy day for data to end the week - digesting weak China Trade, pleasing
of Japan monthly data & Q4 revised GDP, poor German orders, solid French
Production, awaiting Italy Production, US & canada labour data, US Housing
Starts and ECB speakers

- China Trade: as ever heavily distorted by Lunar New Year effects, other
factors also at work, underlying trend nevertheless weak

- German Orders: mean reversion in autos leads renewed slump, Engineering
weakness all too palpable; upward revision to Dec offers some mitigation

- US Payrolls: consensus as ever agnostic, likely to slow after very strong
Dec / Jan reports, some downside risks, but underlying picture of labour
demand very strong

- US Average Hourly Earnings: expected to sustain gentle uptrend, Beige
Book hints at some upside risks

- Morning Call audio file
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-8-march-2019-macro-and-market-preview/


..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

It may be the Lent season, but there is no 'fasting' as far as the day's data schedule goes, even if the China Trade and US labour data will likely dominate the commentariat. Beyond that there are the overall encouraging mix of Japanese data via way of Q4 revised GDP, Current Account, Household Spending and Economy Watchers (services) Survey, dismal German Factory Orders and French Trade and Industrial Production to digest, while ahead lie Italian Industrial Production, Canadian labour data and US Housing Starts. The first round of post ECB council meeting speakers has two of the more hawkish council members on hand, and the widening scandals surrounding Nordic and Baltic banks money laundering will be the subject of a summit of regional finance ministers. German Orders data made for depressing reading, even if January's sharper than expected -2.6% m/m (vs. f'cast +0.5%) was to a large extent mitigated by a sharp upward revision to December to +0.9% mm/ from -1.6%, but the fact remains that Orders have fallen in 9 of the past 13 months. This month's fall was led by a -6.1% m/m for Autos/Auto parts, though this does look like a reactive correction to the prior run of +4.1% Oct, +4.2% Nov and 3.1% Dec. However with Engineering Orders sliding 4.4% m/m, following a -3.7% m/m in December, it remains all too obvious that external demand is weighing heavily.

** China - February Trade Balance **
- As is well known Jan/Feb Trade data are heavily impacted by the Lunar New Year, with a simple rule of thumb being that the earlier the Lunar New Year starts in February, the more that Jan trade volumes will be front loaded, and the harder the hit to the February, which is more than evident in this data. The aggregated surplus for tyhe two months ($43.28 Bln) imparts an average of $21.6 Bln, well below that 3 and 6 month averages of $33.5 Bln $34.3 Bln, per se indicating a clear loss of momentum. It has to be added that the hurricane that swept through Asia in February also impacted imports above all in the metals sector, with some copper and aluminium producers also taking longer than planned holiday shutdowns, while heightened customs 'quality' checks in the coal and agricultural sector also slowed the flow of some imports. Last but not least, while the African Swine fever has dampened demand for soymeal and by extension soy imports (above all from Brazil), there is plenty of evidence that some soy imports have been delayed in the hope that a trade agreement with the US can be achieved, and imports ramped up on the follow. This array of distortions advises against over-interpreting this month's data, though the data clearly reinforce the impression of a substantial slowdown in the economy.

** U.S.A. - February labour data **
- While the fine points of today's labour report (beats & misses) will clearly have an impact on markets, this will almost certainly not be a game changer in terms of the near-term Fed policy outlook, which is firmly on hold at least until Q3. As noted ahead of the ADP report, the consensus forecast for 180K headline and 175K for Private Payrolls is rather agnostic, tweaked modestly to the downside of the usual 185/190K, in part due to a mean reversion following the very strong December & January Payrolls reports, and partly due to weather and holiday disruptions. Revisions will as ever be key, but a close eye needs to be kept on longer-term averages which remain very strong (3-mth at 241K and 6-mth at 232K). While the jump in Challenger Grey Job Cuts to a 4 year high yesterday does bear some scrutiny, the fact that JOLTs Job Openings are at an all-time high is of greater significance, as were the various anecdotal reports of strong labour demand and some wage pressures in Wednesday's Beige Book. As ever Average Hourly Earnings will a key point of focus, with an expected 0.3% m/m implying the y/y rate gets back to December's cyclical high of 3.3%. January's report was notable for a rise in the Labour Force Participation Rate to 63.2% (highest since September 2013), as well as a sharp rebound in the Underemployment Rate to 8.1% from 7.6%, which in part have been weather and govt shutdown related, though also a function of a sharp rise in Leisure/Hospitality jobs. Ultimately today's report is unlikely to change the assessment that while labour demand is strong, there are few signs that this is driving wages sharply higher.

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

Cable in support
will it hold ..??

 

[Dentalfloss]

BUT..... we got a new reaction area yesterday.....and a new downtrend rez area marked

 

[Dentalfloss]

having a poke at rez

 

[Dentalfloss]

lining up