Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

bull flag....or a fake..??

 

[Dentalfloss]

OIl over last 48 hours
2 trends marked

 

[Dentalfloss]

Twas a bull flag.
excellent stuff

updated

 

[Dentalfloss]

Another bull flag..??

 

[Dentalfloss]

not lookin too happy

 

[Dentalfloss]

updated

 

[Dentalfloss]

Mornin folks

 

[Dentalfloss]

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 1 February 2019 - ADM ISI


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Ostwald, Marc
08:18 (23 minutes ago)

to Marc





- All eyes on US labour data as array of Manufacturing PMIs are digested,
US Auto Sales and Construction Spending along with Fed speak from Kaplan

- US Labour data: all elements potentially impacted by shutdown, wages
and hours perhaps more than payrolls; but still likely to emphasize
that labour demand remains very robust

- Manufacturing PMIs: China contagion very evident in Asia readings;
Eurozone continuing to see drag from Germany, UK seen holding up;
US Manufacturing ISM expected to dip modestly, some upside risk

- US Auto Sales: seen slowing after two stronger months, bad weather
and shutdown imply downside risks relative to forecasts


..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

A new month begins with something of a bang via way of the US labour market report and the usual deluge of Manufacturing PMIs, with US Auto Sales and Construction Spending thrown in for good measure, while Dallas Fed's Kaplan provides the first bit of Fed speak following on from Wednesday's FOMC meeting and press conference. Optimism on US/China trade and Fed rate pause continues to underpin sentiment, Lunar New Year set to dampen activity next week.

** World - January Manufacturing PMIs **
- The flash and China NBS Manufacturing PMI readings did not paint a very heartening picture for the sector, outside perhaps of France, though the rebound there was hardly suggesting any strength, but rather that the December slide was overstated (due to the 'Gilets Jaunes' protests). The automotive sector continues to weigh in Germany (and indeed Poland the Czech Republic), though the latest slide in Germany appears to be more a function of a sharp drop in demand from China, which was also evident in the broad array of overnight Asian PMIs. Interestingly the UK reading has been relatively buoyant (above all in comparison to European readings) and while it is forecast to dip to 53.5 from a six month of 54.2 in December, this would still indicate a solid pace of activity, though it does stand in quite sharp contrast to the official data which suggest sector growth is at best tepid. As for the US, the Manufacturing ISM is not expected to mirror the flash PMI (which unexpectedly picked up to 54.9), with a modest dip to 54.0 after December's steep drop to a two year low of 54.3 from 58.8, with regional surveys proving to be rather mixed, but on balance suggesting some marginal upside risks relative to the consensus.

** U.S.A. - January Payrolls / Labour report **
- While markets are always sensitive to the US labour data, today's report should be treated with considerable care, not only due to the vagaries of how it might be impacted by shutdown, but also given the risk of a substantial 'mean reversion' following December's bumper 312K rise (also see BLS explainer below). The slightly better than expected ADP Employment (213K) almost certainly does not offer any pointers given the likelihood of shutdown distortions. The household survey is projected to show the Unemployment Rate unchanged at 3.9%, though the key aspect will as ever the Underemployment Rate, which has edged higher in recent months to 7.6%, after touching an 18 year low of 7.4% in August. Outliers on both Earnings and Weekly Hours are also possible due to shutdown, with Average Hourly Earnings seen at 0.3% m/m to leave the y/y rate unchanged at 3.2%, though the 3-mth annualized rate would rise to 3.6%, while Average Weekly Hours are seen unchanged at 34.5. BLS explainer on impact of 'shutdown' on Payrolls, Wages and Weekly Hours: https://www.bls.gov/bls/does-the-la...agencies-impact-bls-data-or-release-dates.htm
Auto Sales are also due today and expected to dip to a 17.2 Mln after stronger than expected readings of 17.5 Mln in December and 17.4 Mln in November. The risks look to be very much to the downside, with the govt shutdown and bouts of bad weather both potentially acting as a drag, along with lower incentives (in y/y terms), with some industry forecasters suggesting a reading as low as 16.8 Mln.

 

[Dentalfloss]

Naz 100 lookin a tad overextended

 

[Dentalfloss]

got there...finally

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dow into the open
trend supp is 24970 area
rez marked

 

[inzimam]

Dax looks bearish but Dow looks bullish

 

[Dentalfloss]

Hi Inzi
A happy new year to you. I missed your post. I packed early yesterday

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dax looks bearish but Dow looks bullish

Lookin on Sunday morning
Ftse seems to be a one way ticket

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

As you can see...... Both are bullish....

 

[Dentalfloss]

Markets seem to be waiting for Brexit deal and Trump tariff deal.... I think

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

Scalp sells only.... No sign of a turn on all of them