Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

A quick look at FTSE 100
unwinding the overbought...nowt else

 

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yes sir

 

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Naz 100
R yaz goin to stay under our trendline..??

 

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Daxy

 

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Eurusd
our trend supp area got tested...and held....just

 

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SPX
pump into rez

 

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UJ
#pump into rez...and dump on FOMC

 

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Dow
in rez
a new uptrend started 3-4 days ago

 

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New uptrend looks overbought

 

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OIl
in rez
poss a tad overbought

 

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as we said
ftse was only unwinding the overbought

 

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OIl
testing support

 

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Market moving stuff

 

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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 31 January 2019 - ADM ISI


Inbox
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Ostwald, Marc
08:53 (1 hour ago)

to Marc





- End of month flows likely to render busy schedule of data largely
irrelevant, above all following 'neutral' Fed; Japan Production, stupid
German Retail Sales to digest ahead of Eurozone GDP, US Claims and ECI,
Canada monthly GDP' Corporate earnings again plentiful

- Eurozone GDP: drag from Germany and probably Italy to lean heavily
against better France, Spain, Belgium & Austria readings; some downside
risks

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************


With the FOMC meeting out of the way, markets can now concentrate on month end ahead of tomorrow's US labour market report. There is a plentiful schedule of data, and a number of central bank speakers (mostly ECB), but this will probably have to spring some surprises to have a major impact. Statistically there are the official China NBS PMIs (strength in Services being the key aspect), Japan's Industrial Production (soft, but slightly better than expected), UK GfK Consumer Confidence and German Retail Sales (very clearly the world's worst data series, given that all the anecdotal evidence implied strong Christmas spending, and yet this suggests somerhing to a complete collapse at -4.3% m/m -2.1% y/y) to digest ahead of the advance estimates of Eurozone & Italian Q4 GDP, while Canada has monthly GDP, and the US sees Initial Claims and Chicago PMI, and the Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI). Earnings reports are again plentiful in Europe and the US, with Diageo & Royal Dutch Shell among the highlights in the former, while the US looks amongst others to Altria, Amazon.com, Charter Commundixcations, Conoco Phillips, GE, Hershey, Mastercard, Raytheon and UPS. As far as the Fed statement and press conference was concerned, the message was as neutral on the outlook as it could be, the commitment to raise rates 'gradually' was dropped, and a pause signalled, and they unsurprisngly acknowledged the slowdown in the economy, though the pace of growth was still seen as 'solid' rather than 'strong', and the message on rates was that the next move will still probably be up ('the case for raising rates has weakened somewhat'). Was this 'dovish'? No, not really, just considerably less hawkish, and unsurprisingly highlighting the tightening in financial conditions in Q4, which has loosened considerbaly since (see chart). But with month end in the headlights the 'risk on' rally looks likely to be sustained, and per se putting an even greater premium on tomorrow's labour data in terms of setting the direction for marekts in February.

** Eurozone - Q4 GDP **
- The modestly better than expected French GDP (0.3% q/q) is unlikely to be enough to offset the drag from Germany (at best flat to 0.1% q/q, not due until 12 February) and the expected 0.1% q/q contraction in Italy, even if results from Spain, Austria and Belgium were also marginally above expectations. The consensus looks for 0.2% q/q, which would see the y/y rate drop to 1.2% from 1.6%, thanks above all to adverse base effects from the the somewhat illusory strength seen in Q4 2017, and the risks look to be to the downside, though in terms of ECB policy this has few implications, in so far as this has already been acknowledged / discounted).

========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================

With the FOMC meeting out of the way, markets can now concentrate on month end ahead of tomorrow's US labour market report. There is a plentiful schedule of data, and a number of central bank speakers (mostly ECB), but this will probably have to spring some surprises to have a major impact. Statistically there are the official China NBS PMIs (strength in Services being the key aspect), Japan's Industrial Production (soft, but slightly better than expected), UK GfK Consumer Confidence and German Retail Sales (very clearly the world's worst data series, given that all the anecdotal evidence implied strong Christmas spending, and yet this suggests something akin to a complete collapse at -4.3% m/m -2.1% y/y) to digest ahead of the advance estimates of Eurozone & Italian Q4 GDP, while Canada has monthly GDP, and the US sees Initial Claims and Chicago PMI, and the Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI). Earnings reports are again plentiful in Europe and the US, with Diageo & Royal Dutch Shell among the highlights in the former, while the US looks amongst others to Altria, Amazon.com, Charter Communications, Conoco Phillips, GE, Hershey, Mastercard, Raytheon and UPS. As far as the Fed statement and press conference was concerned, the message was as neutral on the outlook as it could be, the commitment to raise rates 'gradually' was dropped, and a pause signalled, and they unsurprisingly acknowledged the slowdown in the economy, though the pace of growth was still seen as 'solid' rather than 'strong', and the message on rates was that the next move will still probably be up ('the case for raising rates has weakened somewhat'). Was this 'dovish'? No, not really, just considerably less hawkish, and unsurprisingly highlighting the tightening in financial conditions in Q4, which has loosened considerably since (see chart). But with month end in the headlights the 'risk on' rally looks likely to be sustained, and per se putting an even greater premium on tomorrow's labour data in terms of setting the initial direction for markets in February.

** Eurozone - Q4 GDP **
- The modestly better than expected French GDP (0.3% q/q) is unlikely to be enough to offset the drag from Germany (at best flat to 0.1% q/q, not due until 12 February) and the expected 0.1% q/q contraction in Italy, even if results from Spain, Austria and Belgium were also marginally above expectations. The consensus looks for 0.2% q/q, which would see the y/y rate drop to 1.2% from 1.6%, thanks above all to adverse base effects from the the somewhat illusory strength seen in Q4 2017, and the risks look to be to the downside, though in terms of ECB policy this has few implications, in so far as this has already been acknowledged / discounted).

 

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lining up

 

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sellers in with a chance

 

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Dow into the open

 

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trendline gets hit ..approz 24900 area
there is a horizontal support @24940 area
so 24900-24940 is poss first supp area

 

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whack

 

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pop